Analysis of the Impact of Contagion Flow on Firm Value and Application to High Yield Bond Portfolio Optimization

Portfolios of financial instruments are designed to increase returns and manage risk. In high-risk investment strategies, central measures of risk must be complemented with controls on tail measures of risk. An unanticipated event that impacts securities of one firm can contagiously effect those of other firms through a contagion flow process that may occur via a set of network connections. Such connections among firms arise due to a variety of factors, such as a shared supply chain member or auditing firm. These connections spread the contagion, potentially impacting numerous other firms in the network. This can adversely affect the level of tail risk in an investment strategy, especially when many such connected and affected firms are included in a portfolio, such as a bond portfolio. Reduced form models illustrate how connections between firms can lead to the heavy tailed default distributions seen in empirical data. Historical events help in the understanding of connections that allow contagion to spread between firms. The goal of this research is to combine the insights gained from both previous models and historical events into a structural model for flow of contagion among firms. This includes defining and calibrating contagion variables, including the network that allows the contagion to spread between firms resulting in increased defaults for a portfolio of debt instruments. The model is then utilized to assess the impact of the network structure on the portfolio of high-yield debt instruments. Additionally, simulation data from the model is a key input into a bond optimization used to provide guidance on the immunization of a portfolio of bonds from the impact of contagion flow. Two historical incidences of contagion are presented as test cases to validate the ability of the proposed firm value model including contagion, to alert investors to the impact of a contagion on a bond portfolio

The Carnegie Supernova Project: The Low-Redshift Survey

Supernovae are essential to understanding the chemical evolution of the Universe. Type Ia supernovae also provide the most powerful observational tool currently available for studying the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy. Our basic knowledge of supernovae comes from the study of their photometric and spectroscopic properties. However, the presently available data sets of optical and near-infrared light curves of supernovae are rather small and/or heterogeneous, and employ photometric systems that are poorly characterized. Similarly, there are relatively few supernovae whose spectral evolution has been well sampled, both in wavelength and phase, with precise spectrophotometric observations. The low-redshift portion of the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP) seeks to remedy this situation by providing photometry and spectrophotometry of a large sample of supernovae taken on telescope/filter/detector systems that are well understood and well characterized. During a five-year program which began in September 2004, we expect to obtain high-precision u'g'r'i'BVYJHKs light curves and optical spectrophotometry for about 250 supernovae of all types. In this paper we provide a detailed description of the CSP survey observing and data reduction methodology. In addition, we present preliminary photometry and spectra obtained for a few representative supernovae during the first observing campaign.Comment: 45 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables, accepted by PAS

An integrated approach to improving rural livelihoods: Examples from India and Bangladesh

This paper presents an overview of work in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and SW Bangladesh through a series of projects from 2005 to the present, considering the impact of farming systems, water shed development and/or agricultural intensification on livelihoods in selected rural areas of India and Bangladesh. The projects spanned a range of scales spanning from the village scale (∼  1 km2) to the meso-scale (∼  100 km2), and considered social as well as biophysical aspects. They focused mainly on the food and water part of the food-water-energy nexus. These projects were in collaboration with a range of organisations in India and Bangladesh, including NGOs, universities, and government research organisations and departments. The projects were part funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, and built on other projects that have been undertaken within the region. An element of each of these projects was to understand how the hydrological cycle could be managed sustainably to improve agricultural systems and livelihoods of marginal groups. As such, they evaluated appropriate technology that is generally not dependent on high-energy inputs (mechanisation). This includes assessing the availability of water, and identifying potential water resources that have not been developed; understanding current agricultural systems and investigating ways of improving water use efficiency; and understanding social dynamics of the affected communities including the potential opportunities and negative impacts of watershed development and agricultural development.he authors acknowledge funding from the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research for projects: Water harvesting and better cropping systems for smallholders of the East India Plateau (LWR/2002/100), Impacts of meso-scale Watershed Development (WSD) in Andhra Pradesh (India) and their implications for designing and implementing improved WSD policies and programs (LWR/2006/072), and Promoting socially inclusive and sustainable agricultural intensification in West Bengal and Bangladesh (LWR/2014/072)

Structural and functional insight into human O-GlcNAcase

O-GlcNAc hydrolase (OGA) removes O-linked N-acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc) from a myriad of nucleocytoplasmic proteins. Through co-expression and assembly of OGA fragments, we determined the three-dimensional structure of human OGA, revealing an unusual helix-exchanged dimer that lays a structural foundation for an improved understanding of substrate recognition and regulation of OGA. Structures of OGA in complex with a series of inhibitors define a precise blueprint for the design of inhibitors that have clinical value

Integrated assessment—how does it help unpack water access by marginalized farmers?

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Water is critical to the lives and livelihoods of rural communities in developing countries; however, access to water can be inequitable within communities. This paper uses a generalized integrated assessment approach to explore the determinants of water access by marginalized farmers in two villages in coastal Bangladesh, before and after the setup of local water institutions. The study was part of a broader project aimed at promoting socially inclusive agricultural intensification. An integrative framework was developed in this study to capture and link the diverse range of factors that influence the distribution of water, including the often-overlooked role of social dynamics and governance arrangements. While interventions around improving water resource infrastructure can be critical for freshwater availability, the case studies show that a breakdown of asymmetric power structures may also be needed for water access to all individuals, especially marginalized groups. Establishing a community-based water institution on its own does not necessarily address power issues in a community. It is imperative that the agency and capacities of the marginalized members are developed and that the institutional arrangements foster an enabling environment for marginalized members to influence decision making. Integrated assessment allowed the case studies to be explored from multiple perspectives so as to gain a greater understanding of the barriers and levers to obtaining equitable outcomes from water interventions

Reflecting on integrated assessment in the Socially Inclusive Agricultural Intensification (SIAGI) project

Agricultural aide interventions are often intended to help small and marginal farmer households increase their agricultural production, and by doing so, better meet their household needs and improve their social and economic standing. However, intensifying their agricultural production requires them to have the capital assets (financial, human, natural, physical and social) and agency to access and use more agricultural inputs, develop and manage the necessary farm or community level infrastructure (e.g. for irrigation, or post-harvesting), and make informed crop and land management choices. Many small and marginalised farmers are lacking in both capital and agency, which constrains their capacity to engage in, and benefit from, agricultural intensification. In this paper, we reflect on our integration research in the 'Promoting Socially Inclusive and sustainable Agricultural Intensification in West Bengal and Bangladesh' (SIAGI) project, focusing on the learnings and outcomes of being socially inclusive in our modelling practices. The Ethical Community Engagement (ECE) ethos and practice to which the SIAGI project team has committed has shaped the content of the integrated assessment frameworks that we have developed as well as the process (Figure 1) we used to develop them. Social inclusion is both a core value of the SIAGI project and an outcome against which the impact of the project will be measured

Integrated assessment frameworks for understanding pathways for socially inclusive agricultural intensification

Alleviating poverty through agricultural development is a challenge that requires sound understanding of the social, market, environmental and institutional settings. An integrated assessment (IA) process can help to clarify and examine the nature of the interactions between these diverse processes and facilitate concerted and collaborative efforts from interdisciplinary teams. This paper provides an overview of IA frameworks developed for a project aimed at identifying opportunities and policy options that promote more socially inclusive and sustainable agricultural intensification in rural communities in West Bengal and Bangladesh. The IA frameworks were intended to provide a 'big picture' of the social and agricultural systems we are researching, and to improve understanding of the interrelationships between the diverse processes, and the pathways between drivers and outcomes. This paper describes the methodological process followed in developing these frameworks (Figure 1). The frameworks are grounded in both theory and observations from project activities, and were iteratively developed with input from stakeholders and domain experts. The frameworks then formed the basis for further (semi)quantitative or qualitative analysis, demonstrated in the study through the development of semi-quantitative models (fuzzy cognitive maps) and narratives.This project (LWR/2014/072) is funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). The authors acknowledge contributions from all members of the SIAGI project team

The Carnegie Supernova Project. I. Third Photometry Data Release of Low-redshift Type Ia Supernovae and Other White Dwarf Explosions

We present final natural-system optical (ugriBV) and near-infrared (YJH) photometry of 134 supernovae (SNe) with probable white dwarf progenitors that were observed in 2004-2009 as part of the first stage of the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP-I). The sample consists of 123 Type Ia SNe, 5 Type Iax SNe, 2 super-Chandrasekhar SN candidates, 2 Type Ia SNe interacting with circumstellar matter, and 2 SN 2006bt-like events. The redshifts of the objects range from to 0.0835; the median redshift is 0.0241. For 120 (90%) of these SNe, near-infrared photometry was obtained. Average optical extinction coefficients and color terms are derived and demonstrated to be stable during the five CSP-I observing campaigns. Measurements of the CSP-I near-infrared bandpasses are also described, and near-infrared color terms are estimated through synthetic photometry of stellar atmosphere models. Optical and near-infrared magnitudes of local sequences of tertiary standard stars for each supernova are given, and a new calibration of Y-band magnitudes of the Persson et al. standards in the CSP-I natural system is presented.Fil: Krisciunas, Kevin. Texas A&M University; Estados UnidosFil: Contreras, Carlos. University Aarhus; Dinamarca. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Burns, Christopher R.. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Phillips, M. M.. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Stritzinger, Maximilian D.. Las Campanas Observatory; Chile. University Aarhus; DinamarcaFil: Morrell, Nidia Irene. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Hamuy, Mario. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Anais, Jorge. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Boldt, Luis. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Busta, Luis. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Campillay, Abdo. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Castellón, Sergio. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Folatelli, Gaston. Las Campanas Observatory; Chile. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; ArgentinaFil: Freedman, Wendy L.. University of Chicago; Estados UnidosFil: González, Consuelo. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Hsiao, Eric Y.. Florida State University; Estados Unidos. University Aarhus; Dinamarca. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Krzeminski, Wojtek. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Persson, Sven Eric. Carnegie Observatories;Fil: Roth, Miguel. Gmto Corporation; Chile. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Salgado, Francisco. Leiden Observatory Research Institute; . Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Serón, Jacqueline. Las Campanas Observatory; Chile. Cerro Tololo Inter American Observatory; ChileFil: Suntzeff, Nicholas B.. Texas A&M University; Estados UnidosFil: Torres, Simón. Soar Telescope; Chile. Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: Filippenko, Alexei V.. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Li, Weidong. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Madore, Barry F.. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute Of Technology; . Las Campanas Observatory; ChileFil: DePoy, D.L.. Texas A&M University; Estados UnidosFil: Marshall, Jennifer L.. Texas A&M University; Estados UnidosFil: Rheault, Jean Philippe. Texas A&M University; Estados UnidosFil: Villanueva, Steven. Texas A&M University; Estados Unidos. Ohio State University; Estados Unido

A New Distance to The Antennae Galaxies (NGC 4038/39) Based on the Type Ia Supernova 2007sr

Traditionally, the distance to NGC 4038/39 has been derived from the systemic recession velocity, yielding about 20 Mpc for H_0 = 72 km/s/Mpc. Recently, this widely adopted distance has been challenged based on photometry of the presumed tip of the red giant branch (TRGB), which seems to yield a shorter distance of 13.3+-1.0 Mpc and, with it, nearly 1 mag lower luminosities and smaller radii for objects in this prototypical merger. Here we present a new distance estimate based on observations of the Type Ia supernova (SN) 2007sr in the southern tail, made at Las Campanas Observatory as part of the Carnegie Supernova Project. The resulting distance of D(SN Ia) = 22.3+-2.8 Mpc [(m-M)_0 = 31.74+-0.27 mag] is in good agreement with a refined distance estimate based on the recession velocity and the large-scale flow model developed by Tonry and collaborators, D(flow) = 22.5+-2.8 Mpc. We point out three serious problems that a short distance of 13.3 Mpc would entail, and trace the claimed short distance to a likely misidentification of the TRGB. Reanalyzing Hubble Space Telescope (HST) data in the Archive with an improved method, we find a TRGB fainter by 0.9 mag and derive from it a preliminary new TRGB distance of D(TRGB) = 20.0+-1.6 Mpc. Finally, assessing our three distance estimates we recommend using a conservative, rounded value of D = 22+-3 Mpc as the best currently available distance to The Antennae.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 1 table (emulateapj; uses amsmath package). Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 136. Figs. 1 & 2 degraded to reduce file size

Optical and Infrared Photometry of the Type Ia Supernovae 1999da, 1999dk, 1999gp, 2000bk, and 2000ce

We present BVRI photometry of the Type Ia supernovae 1999da, 1999dk, 1999gp, 2000bk, and 2000ce, plus infrared photometry of three of these. These objects exhibit the full range of decline rates of Type Ia supernovae. Combined optical and infrared data show that families of V - infrared color curves can be used to derive the host extinction (A_V) of these objects. Existing data do not yet allow us to construct these loci for all color indices and supernova decline rates, but the V-K color evolution is sufficiently uniform that it allows the determination of host extinction over a wide range of supernova decline rates to an accuracy of roughly +/- 0.1 mag. We introduce a new empirical parameter, the mean I-band flux 20 to 40 days after maximum light, and show how it is directly related to the decline rate.Comment: 53 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal (scheduled for the September 2001 issue