Evaluating invasion risk for freshwater fishes in South Africa

South Africa, as a signatory of the Convention on Biological Diversity, has an obligation to identify, prioritise and manage invasive species and their introduction pathways. However, this requires knowledge of the introduction pathways, factors influencing establishment success, invasive potential, current distributions and ecological impacts. Objectives: To evaluate the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) to predict the invasion risk posed by fish species proposed for introduction into South Africa. Method: FISK assessments were compiled for species whose invasion status in South Africa was known. A Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to calibrate the FISK for South Africa. The calibrated FISK was used to evaluate the risk that three species recently proposed for importation for aquaculture could become invasive in South Africa. Results: A FISK score of 14 was identified as the threshold to delineate between species that could become invasive in South Africa and those that are unlikely to become invasive. Of the three species evaluated, Silurus glanis had a high risk of becoming invasive in South Africa, Lates calcarifer was likely to be invasive and Oncorhynchus tshawytscha was unlikely to be invasive in South Africa. Conclusion: FISK was demonstrated to be a useful risk assessment tool to evaluate the invasion risk posed by species proposed for use in aquaculture. For the large number of fish imported for the pet trade, a rapid screening assessment to flag potentially high risk species was recommended prior to a full FISK assessment for flagged species.EM201

Towards a new philosophy of engineering: structuring the complex problems from the sustainability discourse

This dissertation considers three broad issues which emerge from the sustainability discourse. First is the nature of the discourse itself, particularly the underlying philosophical positions which are represented. Second, is the nature of the highly complex types of problem which the discourse exposes. And third is whether the engineering profession, as it is practised currently, is adequate to deal with such problems. The sustainability discourse exposes two distinct, fundamentally irreconcilable philosophical positions. The first, “sustainable development”, considers humanity to be privileged in relation to all other species and ecosystems. It is only incumbent upon us to look after the environment to the extent to which it is in our interests to do so. The second, “sustainability”, sees humanity as having no special moral privilege and recognises the moral status of other species, ecosystems, and even wilderness areas. Thus, sustainability imposes upon us a moral obligation to take their status into account and not to degrade or to destroy them. These two conflicting positions give rise to extremely complex problems. An innovative taxonomy of problem complexity has been developed which identifies three broad categories of problem. Of particular interest in this dissertation is the most complex of these, referred to here as the Type 3 problem. The Type 3 problem recognises the systemic complexity of the problem situation but also includes differences of the domain of interests as a fundamental, constituent part of the problem itself. Hence, established systems analysis techniques and reductionist approaches do not work. The domain of interests will typically have disparate ideas and positions, which may be entirely irreconcilable. The dissertation explores the development of philosophy of science, particularly in the last 70 years. It is noted that, unlike the philosophy of science, the philosophy of engineering has not been influenced by developments of critical theory, cultural theory, and postmodernism, which have had significant impact in late 20th-century Western society. This is seen as a constraint on the practice of engineering. Thus, a set of philosophical principles for sustainable engineering practice is developed. Such a change in the philosophy underlying the practice of engineering is seen as necessary if engineers are to engage with and contribute to the resolution of Type 3 problems. Two particular challenges must be overcome, if Type 3 problems are to be satisfactorily resolved. First, issues of belief, values, and morals are central to this problem type and must be included in problem consideration. And second, the problem situation is usually so complex that it challenges the capacity of human cognition to deal with it. Consequently, extensive consideration is given to cognitive and behavioural psychology, in particular to choice, judgement and decision-making in uncertainty. A novel problem-structuring approach is developed on three levels. A set philosophical foundation is established; a theoretical framework, based on general systems theory and established behavioural and cognitive psychological theory, is devised; and a set of tools is proposed to model Type 3 complex problems as a dynamic systems. The approach is different to other systems approaches, in that it enables qualitative exploration of the system to plausible, hypothetical disturbances. The problem-structuring approach is applied in a case study, which relates to the development of a water subsystem for a major metropolis (Sydney, Australia). The technique is also used to critique existing infrastructure planning processes and to propose an alternative approach

Evaluating invasion risk for freshwater fishes

Background: South Africa, as a signatory of the Convention on Biological Diversity, has an obligation to identify, prioritise and manage invasive species and their introduction pathways. However, this requires knowledge of the introduction pathways, factors influencing establishment success, invasive potential, current distributions and ecological impacts. Objectives: To evaluate the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) to predict the invasion risk posed by fish species proposed for introduction into South Africa. Method: FISK assessments were compiled for species whose invasion status in South Africa was known. A Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to calibrate the FISK for South Africa. The calibrated FISK was used to evaluate the risk that three species recently proposed for importation for aquaculture could become invasive in South Africa. Results: A FISK score of 14 was identified as the threshold to delineate between species that could become invasive in South Africa and those that are unlikely to become invasive. Of the three species evaluated, Silurus glanis had a high risk of becoming invasive in South Africa, Lates calcarifer was likely to be invasive and Oncorhynchus tshawytscha was unlikely to be invasive in South Africa. Conclusion: FISK was demonstrated to be a useful risk assessment tool to evaluate the invasion risk posed by species proposed for use in aquaculture. For the large number of fish imported for the pet trade, a rapid screening assessment to flag potentially high risk species was recommended prior to a full FISK assessment for flagged species

Revisiting Generalized Chaplygin Gas as a Unified Dark Matter and Dark Energy Model

In this paper, we revisit generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) model as a unified dark matter and dark energy model. The energy density of GCG model is given as $\rho_{GCG}/\rho_{GCG0}=[B_{s}+(1-B_{s})a^{-3(1+\alpha)}]^{1/(1+\alpha)}$, where $\alpha$ and $B_s$ are two model parameters which will be constrained by type Ia supernova as standard candles, baryon acoustic oscillation as standard rulers and the seventh year full WMAP data points. In this paper, we will not separate GCG into dark matter and dark energy parts any more as adopted in the literatures. By using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, we find the result: $\alpha=0.00126_{- 0.00126- 0.00126}^{+ 0.000970+ 0.00268}$ and $B_s= 0.775_{- 0.0161- 0.0338}^{+ 0.0161+ 0.0307}$.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

108 AUROTHIOMALATE INHIBITS COX-2 EXPRESSION AND PGE2 PRODUCTION IN CHONDROCYTES BY INCREASING MKP-1 EXPRESSION AND DECREASING p38 AND JNK PHOSPHORYLATION

The very high occurrence of cardiovascular events presents a major public health issue, because treatment remains suboptimal. Lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statins or ezetimibe in combination with a statin reduces major adverse cardiovascular events. The cardiovascular risk reduction in relation to the absolute LDL-C reduction is linear for most interventions without evidence of attenuation or increase in risk at low LDL-C levels. Opportunities for innovation in dyslipidaemia treatment should address the substantial risk of lipid-associated cardiovascular events among patients optimally treated per guidelines but who cannot achieve LDL-C goals and who could benefit from additional LDL-C-lowering therapy or experience side effects of statins. Fresh approaches are needed to identify promising drug targets early and develop them efficiently. The Cardiovascular Round Table of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) convened a workshop to discuss new lipid-lowering strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction. Opportunities to improve treatment approaches and the efficient study of new therapies were explored. Circulating biomarkers may not be fully reliable proxy indicators of the relationship between treatment effect and clinical outcome. Mendelian randomization studies may better inform development strategies and refine treatment targets before Phase 3. Trials should match the drug to appropriate lipid and patient profile, and guidelines may move towards a precision-based approach to individual patient management. Stakeholder collaboration is needed to ensure continued innovation and better international coordination of both regulatory aspects and guidelines. It should be noted that risk may also be addressed through increased attention to other risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, overweight, and inactivity

A Brane World Perspective on the Cosmological Constant and the Hierarchy Problems

We elaborate on the recently proposed static brane world scenario, where the effective 4-D cosmological constant is exponentially small when parallel 3-branes are far apart. We extend this result to a compactified model with two positive tension branes. Besides an exponentially small effective 4-D cosmological constant, this model incorporates a Randall-Sundrum-like solution to the hierarchy problem. Furthermore, the exponential factors for the hierarchy problem and the cosmological constant problem obey an inequality that is satisfied in nature. This inequality implies that the cosmological constant problem can be explained if the hierarchy problem is understood. The basic idea generalizes to the multibrane world scenario. We discuss models with piecewise adjustable bulk cosmological constants (to be determined by the 5-dimensional Einstein equation), a key element of the scenario. We also discuss the global structure of this scenario and clarify the physical properties of the particle (Rindler) horizons that are present. Finally, we derive a 4-D effective theory in which all observers on all branes not separated by particle horizons measure the same Newton's constant and 4-D cosmological constant.Comment: revtex, 63 pages, 8 figures, one table, revised version, more discussions on the global structure, references adde

An improved method for measuring muon energy using the truncated mean of dE/dx

The measurement of muon energy is critical for many analyses in large Cherenkov detectors, particularly those that involve separating extraterrestrial neutrinos from the atmospheric neutrino background. Muon energy has traditionally been determined by measuring the specific energy loss (dE/dx) along the muon's path and relating the dE/dx to the muon energy. Because high-energy muons (E_mu > 1 TeV) lose energy randomly, the spread in dE/dx values is quite large, leading to a typical energy resolution of 0.29 in log10(E_mu) for a muon observed over a 1 km path length in the IceCube detector. In this paper, we present an improved method that uses a truncated mean and other techniques to determine the muon energy. The muon track is divided into separate segments with individual dE/dx values. The elimination of segments with the highest dE/dx results in an overall dE/dx that is more closely correlated to the muon energy. This method results in an energy resolution of 0.22 in log10(E_mu), which gives a 26% improvement. This technique is applicable to any large water or ice detector and potentially to large scintillator or liquid argon detectors.Comment: 12 pages, 16 figure

All-particle cosmic ray energy spectrum measured with 26 IceTop stations

We report on a measurement of the cosmic ray energy spectrum with the IceTop air shower array, the surface component of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory at the South Pole. The data used in this analysis were taken between June and October, 2007, with 26 surface stations operational at that time, corresponding to about one third of the final array. The fiducial area used in this analysis was 0.122 km^2. The analysis investigated the energy spectrum from 1 to 100 PeV measured for three different zenith angle ranges between 0{\deg} and 46{\deg}. Because of the isotropy of cosmic rays in this energy range the spectra from all zenith angle intervals have to agree. The cosmic-ray energy spectrum was determined under different assumptions on the primary mass composition. Good agreement of spectra in the three zenith angle ranges was found for the assumption of pure proton and a simple two-component model. For zenith angles {\theta} < 30{\deg}, where the mass dependence is smallest, the knee in the cosmic ray energy spectrum was observed between 3.5 and 4.32 PeV, depending on composition assumption. Spectral indices above the knee range from -3.08 to -3.11 depending on primary mass composition assumption. Moreover, an indication of a flattening of the spectrum above 22 PeV were observed.Comment: 38 pages, 17 figure

Modified Chaplygin Gas as a Unified Dark Matter and Dark Energy Model and Cosmic Constraints

A modified Chaplygin gas model (MCG), $\rho_{MCG}/\rho_{MCG0}=[B_{s}+(1-B_{s})a^{-3(1+B)(1+\alpha)}]^{1/(1+\alpha)}$, as a unified dark matter model and dark energy model is constrained by using current available cosmic observational data points which include type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation and the seventh year full WMAP data points. As a contrast to the consideration in the literatures, we {\it do not} separate the MCG into two components, i.e. dark mater and dark energy component, but we take it as a whole energy component-a unified dark sector. By using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, a tight constraint is obtained: $\alpha= 0.000727_{- 0.00140- 0.00234}^{+ 0.00142+ 0.00391}$, $B=0.000777_{- 0.000302- 0.000697}^{+ 0.000201+ 0.000915}$ and $B_s= 0.782_{- 0.0162- 0.0329}^{+ 0.0163+ 0.0307}$ .}Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries