Supercell low-level mesocyclones: Origins of inflow and vorticity

The intensification of low-level mesocyclones in supercell thunderstorms has historically been associated with the development of storm-generated streamwise vorticity along a baroclinic gradient in the forward flank of supercells. However, the ambient streamwise vorticity of the environment (often quantified via storm-relative helicity), especially near the ground, is particularly skillful at discriminating between nontornadic and tornadic supercells. This study investigates whether the origins of the inflow air into supercell low-level mesocyclones, both horizontally and vertically, can help explain the dynamical role of environmental versus storm-generated vorticity in low-level mesocyclone intensification. Simulations of supercells, initialized with wind profiles common to supercell environments observed in nature, show that the air bound for the low-level mesocyclone primarily originates from the undisturbed, ambient environment, rather than from along the forward flank, and from very close to the ground, often in the lowest 200 - 400 m of the atmosphere. Given that the near-ground environmental air comprises the bulk of the inflow into low-level mesocyclones, this likely explains the forecast skill of environmental streamwise vorticity in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. Contrary to prior conceptual models of low-level mesocyclones, intensification does not appear to require the development of additional horizontal vorticity in the forward flank. Instead, the dominant contributor to vertical vorticity within the low-level mesocyclone is from the environmental horizontal vorticity. This study therefore supports a revised view of low-level mesocyclones in supercells

Modelling sediment supply and transport in the River Lugg: strategies for controlling sediment loads

The River Lugg has particular problems with high sediment loads that have resulted in detrimental impacts on ecology and fisheries. A new dynamic, process-based model of hydrology and sediments (INCA- SED) has been developed and applied to the River Lugg system using an extensive data set from 1995–2008. The model simulates sediment sources and sinks throughout the catchment and gives a good representation of the sediment response at 22 reaches along the River Lugg. A key question considered in using the model is the management of sediment sources so that concentrations and bed loads can be reduced in the river system. Altogether, five sediment management scenarios were selected for testing on the River Lugg, including land use change, contour tillage, hedging and buffer strips. Running the model with parameters altered to simulate these five scenarios produced some interesting results. All scenarios achieved some reduction in sediment levels, with the 40% land use change achieving the best result with a 19% reduction. The other scenarios also achieved significant reductions of between 7% and 9%. Buffer strips produce the best result at close to 9%. The results suggest that if hedge introduction, contour tillage and buffer strips were all applied, sediment reductions would total 24%, considerably improving the current sediment situation. We present a novel cost-effectiveness analysis of our results where we use percentage of land removed from production as our cost function. Given the minimal loss of land associated with contour tillage, hedges and buffer strips, we suggest that these management practices are the most cost-effective combination to reduce sediment loads

Early Prediction of Massive Transfusion for Patients With Traumatic Hemorrhage: Development of a Multivariable Machine Learning Model

OBJECTIVE: Develop a novel machine learning (ML) model to rapidly identify trauma patients with severe hemorrhage at risk of early mortality. BACKGROUND: The critical administration threshold (CAT, 3 or more units of red blood cells in a 60-minute period) indicates severe hemorrhage and predicts mortality, whereas early identification of such patients improves survival. METHODS: Patients from the PRospective, Observational, Multicenter, Major Trauma Transfusion and Pragmatic, Randomized Optimal Platelet, and Plasma Ratio studies were identified as either CAT+ or CAT-. Candidate variables were separated into 4 tiers based on the anticipated time of availability during the patient\u27s assessment. ML models were created with the stepwise addition of variables and compared with the baseline performance of the assessment of blood consumption (ABC) score for CAT+ prediction using a cross-validated training set and a hold-out validation test set. RESULTS: Of 1245 PRospective, Observational, Multicenter, Major Trauma Transfusion and 680 Pragmatic, Randomized Optimal Platelet and Plasma Ratio study patients, 1312 were included in this analysis, including 862 CAT+ and 450 CAT-. A CatBoost gradient-boosted decision tree model performed best. Using only variables available prehospital or on initial assessment (Tier 1), the ML model performed superior to the ABC score in predicting CAT+ patients [area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC = 0.71 vs 0.62)]. Model discrimination increased with the addition of Tier 2 (AUC = 0.75), Tier 3 (AUC = 0.77), and Tier 4 (AUC = 0.81) variables. CONCLUSIONS: A dynamic ML model reliably identified CAT+ trauma patients with data available within minutes of trauma center arrival, and the quality of the prediction improved as more patient-level data became available. Such an approach can optimize the accuracy and timeliness of massive transfusion protocol activation

In the dedicated pursuit of dedicated capital: restoring an indigenous investment ethic to British capitalism

Tony Blair’s landslide electoral victory on May 1 (New Labour Day?) presents the party in power with a rare, perhaps even unprecedented, opportunity to revitalise and modernise Britain’s ailing and antiquated manufacturing economy.* If it is to do so, it must remain true to its long-standing (indeed, historic) commitment to restore an indigenous investment ethic to British capitalism. In this paper we argue that this in turn requires that the party reject the very neo-liberal orthodoxies which it offered to the electorate as evidence of its competence, moderation and ‘modernisation’, which is has internalised, and which it apparently now views as circumscribing the parameters of the politically and economically possible

The SPORTSMART study: a pilot randomised controlled trial of sexually transmitted infection screening interventions targeting men in football club settings

Background: Uptake of chlamydia screening by men in England has been substantially lower than by women. Non-traditional settings such as sports clubs offer opportunities to widen access. Involving people who are not medically trained to promote screening could optimise acceptability. Methods: We developed two interventions to explore the acceptability and feasibility of urine-based sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening interventions targeting men in football clubs. We tested these interventions in a pilot cluster randomised control trial. Six clubs were randomly allocated, two to each of three trial arms: team captain-led and poster STI screening promotion; sexual health adviser-led and poster STI screening promotion; and poster-only STI screening promotion (control/comparator). Primary outcome was test uptake. Results: Across the three arms, 153 men participated in the trial and 90 accepted the offer of screening (59%, 95% CI 35% to 79%). Acceptance rates were broadly comparable across the arms: captain-led: 28/56 (50%); health professional-led: 31/46 (67%); and control: 31/51 (61%). However, rates varied appreciably by club, precluding formal comparison of arms. No infections were identified. Process evaluation confirmed that interventions were delivered in a standardised way but the control arm was unintentionally ‘enhanced’ by some team captains actively publicising screening events. Conclusions: Compared with other UK-based community screening models, uptake was high but gaining access to clubs was not always easy. Use of sexual health advisers and team captains to promote screening did not appear to confer additional benefit over a poster-promoted approach. Although the interventions show potential, the broader implications of this strategy for UK male STI screening policy require further investigation

Elevated cerebrospinal fluid 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid in macaques following early life stress and inverse association with hippocampal volume: preliminary implications for serotonin-related function in mood and anxiety disorders

Background: Early life stress (ELS) is cited as a risk for mood and anxiety disorders, potentially through altered serotonin neurotransmission. We examined the effects of ELS, utilizing the variable foraging demand (VFD) macaque model, on adolescent monoamine metabolites. We sought to replicate an increase in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) observed in two previous VFD cohorts. We hypothesized that elevated cisternal 5-HIAA was associated with reduced neurotrophic effects, conceivably due to excessive negative feedback at somatodendritic 5-HT1A autoreceptors. A putatively decreased serotonin neurotransmission would be reflected by reductions in hippocampal volume and white matter (WM) fractional anisotropy (FA).Methods: When infants were 2-6 months of age, bonnet macaque mothers were exposed to VFD. We employed cisternal CSF taps to measure monoamine metabolites in VFD (N = 22) and non-VFD (N = 14) offspring (mean age = 2.61 years). Metabolites were correlated with hippocampal volume obtained by MRI and WM FA by diffusion tensor imaging in young adulthood in 17 males [10 VFD (mean age = 4.57 years)].Results: VFD subjects exhibited increased CSF 5-HIAA compared to non-VFD controls. An inverse correlation between right hippocampal volume and 5-HIAA was noted in VFD- but not controls. CSF HVA and MHPG correlated inversely with hippocampal volume only in VFD. CSF 5-HIAA correlated inversely with FA of the VVM tracts of the anterior limb of the internal capsule (ALIC) only in VFD.Conclusions: Elevated cisternal 5-HIAA in VFD may reflect increased dorsal raphe serotonin, potentially inducing excessive autoreceptor activation, inducing a putative serotonin deficit in terminal fields. Resultant reductions in neurotrophic activity are reflected by smaller right hippocampal volume. Convergent evidence of reduced neurotrophic activity in association with high CSF 5-HIAA in VFD was reflected by reduced FA of the ALIC.NIMHSuny Downstate Med Ctr, Nonhuman Primate Lab, Dept Psychiat & Behav Sci, Brooklyn, NY 11203 USANew York State Psychiat Inst & Hosp, New York, NY 10032 USASuny Downstate Med Ctr, Coll Med, Brooklyn, NY 11203 USAUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Psychiat & Neuroradiol, São Paulo, BrazilFranklin Beha Hlh Consultants, Bronx, NY USANew York State Psychiat Inst & Hosp, Dept Mol Imaging & Neuropathol, New York, NY 10032 USAIcahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Dept Psychiat, New York, NY 10029 USAIcahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Dept Neurosci, New York, NY 10029 USAIcahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Dept Radiol, New York, NY 10029 USAIcahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Fishberg Dept Neurosci, New York, NY 10029 USAIcahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Friedman Brain Inst, New York, NY 10029 USAYale Univ, Sch Med, Dept Psychiat, New Haven, CT USAMichael E Debakey VA Med Ctr, Mental Hlth Care Line, Houston, TX USABaylor Coll Med, Menninger Dept Psychiat & Behav Sci, Houston, TX 77030 USAYale Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Child Study, New Haven, CT 06510 USAUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Psychiat & Neuroradiol, São Paulo, BrazilNIMH: R21MH066748NIMH: R01 MH059990Web of Scienc

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they mak

Host‐derived population genomics data provides insights into bacterial and diatom composition of the killer whale skin

Recent exploration into the interactions and relationship between hosts and their microbiota has revealed a connection between many aspects of the host's biology, health and associated micro-organisms. Whereas amplicon sequencing has traditionally been used to characterize the microbiome, the increasing number of published population genomics data sets offers an underexploited opportunity to study microbial profiles from the host shotgun sequencing data. Here, we use sequence data originally generated from killer whale Orcinus orca skin biopsies for population genomics, to characterize the skin microbiome and investigate how host social and geographical factors influence the microbial community composition. Having identified 845 microbial taxa from 2.4 million reads that did not map to the killer whale reference genome, we found that both ecotypic and geographical factors influence community composition of killer whale skin microbiomes. Furthermore, we uncovered key taxa that drive the microbiome community composition and showed that they are embedded in unique networks, one of which is tentatively linked to diatom presence and poor skin condition. Community composition differed between Antarctic killer whales with and without diatom coverage, suggesting that the previously reported episodic migrations of Antarctic killer whales to warmer waters associated with skin turnover may control the effects of potentially pathogenic bacteria such as Tenacibaculum dicentrarchi. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of microbiome studies from host shotgun sequencing data and highlights the importance of metagenomics in understanding the relationship between host and microbial ecology