A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin

International audienceThis study investigates a method for best member selection of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) with the goal to increase quantitative precipitation forecast. A case study that occurred between 22-24 May 2002 over Calabria, southern Italy, is discussed. Mediterranean storms often develop under upper level disturbances which are usually associated with high values of potential vorticity. Anomalously high values of potential vorticity can be identified by the METEOSAT water vapor channel centered around 6.3 ?m because they are associated with dark band on the METEOSAT image. This signature offers a chance to identify the upper level disturbance that can be exploited in data void countries as Calabria. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast. This issue is utilized in an ensemble forecast where member forecasts are compatible with the analysis and forecast errors. These members are grouped in five clusters by a hierarchical clustering technique which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause to compute distances between members. Therefore the members of a cluster have a similar representation of the upper level disturbance. For each cluster a representative member is selected and its pseudo water vapor image is compared with the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapor image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria. The subjective evaluation of the comparison allows to gain physical insight in the storm evolution and to select representative members which are more in agreement with the METEOSAT image. Results, even if for a case study, show the feasibility of the methodology that, if confirmed by further investigations, could be valuable in data void countries as the central Mediterranean basin

Adaptive constraints for feature tracking

In this paper extensions to an existing tracking algorithm are described. These extensions implement adaptive tracking constraints in the form of regional upper-bound displacements and an adaptive track smoothness constraint. Together, these constraints make the tracking algorithm more flexible than the original algorithm (which used fixed tracking parameters) and provide greater confidence in the tracking results. The result of applying the new algorithm to high-resolution ECMWF reanalysis data is shown as an example of its effectiveness

Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterraneanbasin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing

International audienceThis study investigates the sensitivity of a moderate-intense storm that occurred over Calabria, southern Italy, to upper-tropospheric forcing from a Potential Vorticity (PV) perspective. A prominent mid-troposheric trough can be identified for this event, which occurred between 22?24 May 2002, and serves as the precursor agent for the moderate-intense precipitation recorded. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast and we test the hypothesis in a two-step approach. First, we examine the degree of uncertainty by comparing five different scenarios in a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) framework which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause as the discriminating variable. Pseudo water vapour images of different scenarios are compared to the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapour image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria, in order to evaluate the reliability of the different precipitation scenarios simulated by the LEPS. Second, we examine the impact of upper tropospheric PV variations on precipitation by comparing model simulations with slightly different initial PV fields. Initial velocity and mass fields in each case are balanced with the chosen PV perturbation using a PV inversion technique. The results of this study support the working hypothesis

Order and phase nucleation in nonequilibrium nanocomposite Fe-Pt thin films with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy

We report on the time evolution of mass transport upon annealing nonequilibrium Fe-Pt nanocomposite films, leading to nucleation of L1(0) chemically ordered phase. The nonequilibrium nanocomposite films were fabricated by applying Fe(+) ion implantation to epitaxial Pt films grown on (001) MgO substrates, yielding Fe nanoclusters embedded in a Pt matrix at a tailored penetration depth. Time-resolved x-ray diffraction studies were carried out using synchrotron radiation, allowing determination of the activation energy for nucleation of the FePt L1(0) phase within the segregated nanoclusters during annealing. The growth of the segregated L1(0) ordered phase was modeled using ideal grain-size law and found to be dominated by strain-driven surface nucleation. The activation energies were found to correlate with the nanocluster size. Magnetic characterization of selected annealed samples indicates perpendicular magnetic anisotropy with high coercive field coincident with high value of the chemical order parameter of the ordered phase within the magnetic nanoclusters

Raman scattering and FT-IR spectroscopic studies on dithienylethene switches—towards non-destructive optical readout

The non-destructive readout of photochromic memory materials based on the dithienylethene unit both by IR spectroscopy and Raman scattering is explored. A representative series of C5-substituted thienyl hexahydro- and hexafluoro-cyclopentene based photochromes was investigated to explore the effect and potential usefulness of substitution for the development of multicomponent memory materials. The effect of the deposition method on the photochemistry of solid materials containing photochromic dithienylcyclopentene switches was also explored. Photoconversion in the solid state to the closed form was found to be low when starting from the open form, but, in contrast, ring opening to the open state from the closed form was found to be complete. The effect was found to be due to inner filter rather than conformational phenomena. Characteristic vibrational bands for the central dithienyl core are assigned and a comparison made of the vibrational spectroscopic properties of the perhydro- and perfluoro switches. The data enable the determination of the photoconversion achievable in the solid state as well as some assessment of the influence of the deposition method on the photoconversion. The potential of Raman spectroscopy as a method of achieving non-destructive optical readout is demonstrated through the large differences in absolute Raman scattering intensity between the open and closed states, when monitored at wavelengths which do not result in photochemical ring opening.

Inter-domain dynamics in the chaperone SurA and multi-site binding to its outer membrane protein clients

The periplasmic chaperone SurA plays a key role in outer membrane protein (OMP) biogenesis. E. coli SurA comprises a core domain and two peptidylprolyl isomerase domains (P1 and P2), but its mechanisms of client binding and chaperone function have remained unclear. Here, we use chemical cross-linking, hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry, single-molecule FRET and molecular dynamics simulations to map the client binding site(s) on SurA and interrogate the role of conformational dynamics in OMP recognition. We demonstrate that SurA samples an array of conformations in solution in which P2 primarily lies closer to the core/P1 domains than suggested in the SurA crystal structure. OMP binding sites are located primarily in the core domain, and OMP binding results in conformational changes between the core/P1 domains. Together, the results suggest that unfolded OMP substrates bind in a cradle formed between the SurA domains, with structural flexibility between domains assisting OMP recognition, binding and release

Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Mediterráneo Foundation. This operational system is run twice a day, and both runs have a 3-day forecast range. To carry out the verification of the model in this work, the information generated by the system has been broken into individual simulation days for a specific daily run of the model. Moreover, we have analysed the summer forecast period from 1 June to 31 August for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate good agreement between observed and simulated maximum temperatures, with RMSE in general near 2 °C both for coastal and inland stations. For this parameter, the model shows a negative bias around −1.5 °C in the coast, while the opposite trend is observed inland. In addition, RAMS also shows good results in forecasting minimum temperatures for coastal locations, with bias lower than 1 °C and RMSE below 2 °C. However, the model presents some difficulties for this parameter inland, where bias higher than 3 °C and RMSE of about 4 °C have been found. Besides, there is little difference in both temperatures forecasted within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining the forecast performance at least for three forecast days

Ab initio Calculations of Multilayer Relaxations of Stepped Cu Surfaces

We present trends in the multilayer relaxations of several vicinals of Cu(100) and Cu(111) of varying terrace widths and geometry. The electronic structure calculations are based on density functional theory in the local density approximation with norm-conserving, non-local pseudopotentials in the mixed basis representation. While relaxations continue for several layers, the major effect concentrates near the step and corner atoms. On all surfaces the step atoms contract inwards, in agreement with experimental findings. Additionally, the corner atoms move outwards and the atoms in the adjacent chain undergo large inward relaxation. Correspondingly, the largest contraction (4%) is in the bond length between the step atom and its bulk nearest neighbor (BNN), while that between the corner atom and BNN is somewhat enlarged. The surface atoms also display changes in registry of upto 1.5%. Our results are in general in good agreement with LEED data including the controversial case of Cu(511). Subtle differences are found with results obtained from semi-empirical potentials.Comment: 21 pages and 3 figure