A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin

International audienceThis study investigates a method for best member selection of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) with the goal to increase quantitative precipitation forecast. A case study that occurred between 22-24 May 2002 over Calabria, southern Italy, is discussed. Mediterranean storms often develop under upper level disturbances which are usually associated with high values of potential vorticity. Anomalously high values of potential vorticity can be identified by the METEOSAT water vapor channel centered around 6.3 ?m because they are associated with dark band on the METEOSAT image. This signature offers a chance to identify the upper level disturbance that can be exploited in data void countries as Calabria. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast. This issue is utilized in an ensemble forecast where member forecasts are compatible with the analysis and forecast errors. These members are grouped in five clusters by a hierarchical clustering technique which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause to compute distances between members. Therefore the members of a cluster have a similar representation of the upper level disturbance. For each cluster a representative member is selected and its pseudo water vapor image is compared with the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapor image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria. The subjective evaluation of the comparison allows to gain physical insight in the storm evolution and to select representative members which are more in agreement with the METEOSAT image. Results, even if for a case study, show the feasibility of the methodology that, if confirmed by further investigations, could be valuable in data void countries as the central Mediterranean basin

Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP

The aim of this paper is essentially twofold: first, to describe the use of spherical nonparametric estimators for determining statistical diagnostic fields from ensembles of feature tracks on a global domain, and second, to report the application of these techniques to data derived from a modern general circulation model. New spherical kernel functions are introduced that are more efficiently computed than the traditional exponential kernels. The data-driven techniques of cross-validation to determine the amount elf smoothing objectively, and adaptive smoothing to vary the smoothing locally, are also considered. Also introduced are techniques for combining seasonal statistical distributions to produce longer-term statistical distributions. Although all calculations are performed globally, only the results for the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January, February) and Southern Hemisphere winter (June, July, August) cyclonic activity are presented, discussed, and compared with previous studies. Overall, results for the two hemispheric winters are in good agreement with previous studies, both for model-based studies and observational studies

Adaptive constraints for feature tracking

In this paper extensions to an existing tracking algorithm are described. These extensions implement adaptive tracking constraints in the form of regional upper-bound displacements and an adaptive track smoothness constraint. Together, these constraints make the tracking algorithm more flexible than the original algorithm (which used fixed tracking parameters) and provide greater confidence in the tracking results. The result of applying the new algorithm to high-resolution ECMWF reanalysis data is shown as an example of its effectiveness

Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

International audienceThis paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and mesoscale forcing, the high resolution forecast (Hi-Res) has better performance compared to the ensemble mean for rainfall thresholds larger than 10mm but it tends to overestimate precipitation for lower amounts. This yields larger false alarms that have a detrimental effect on objective scores for lower thresholds. To exploit the advantages of a probabilistic forecast compared to a deterministic one, the relation between the ECMWF-EPS 700 hPa geopotential height spread and LEPS performance is analyzed. Results are promising even if additional studies are required

Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterraneanbasin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing

International audienceThis study investigates the sensitivity of a moderate-intense storm that occurred over Calabria, southern Italy, to upper-tropospheric forcing from a Potential Vorticity (PV) perspective. A prominent mid-troposheric trough can be identified for this event, which occurred between 22?24 May 2002, and serves as the precursor agent for the moderate-intense precipitation recorded. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast and we test the hypothesis in a two-step approach. First, we examine the degree of uncertainty by comparing five different scenarios in a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) framework which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause as the discriminating variable. Pseudo water vapour images of different scenarios are compared to the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapour image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria, in order to evaluate the reliability of the different precipitation scenarios simulated by the LEPS. Second, we examine the impact of upper tropospheric PV variations on precipitation by comparing model simulations with slightly different initial PV fields. Initial velocity and mass fields in each case are balanced with the chosen PV perturbation using a PV inversion technique. The results of this study support the working hypothesis

Order and phase nucleation in nonequilibrium nanocomposite Fe-Pt thin films with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy

We report on the time evolution of mass transport upon annealing nonequilibrium Fe-Pt nanocomposite films, leading to nucleation of L1(0) chemically ordered phase. The nonequilibrium nanocomposite films were fabricated by applying Fe(+) ion implantation to epitaxial Pt films grown on (001) MgO substrates, yielding Fe nanoclusters embedded in a Pt matrix at a tailored penetration depth. Time-resolved x-ray diffraction studies were carried out using synchrotron radiation, allowing determination of the activation energy for nucleation of the FePt L1(0) phase within the segregated nanoclusters during annealing. The growth of the segregated L1(0) ordered phase was modeled using ideal grain-size law and found to be dominated by strain-driven surface nucleation. The activation energies were found to correlate with the nanocluster size. Magnetic characterization of selected annealed samples indicates perpendicular magnetic anisotropy with high coercive field coincident with high value of the chemical order parameter of the ordered phase within the magnetic nanoclusters

Raman scattering and FT-IR spectroscopic studies on dithienylethene switches—towards non-destructive optical readout

The non-destructive readout of photochromic memory materials based on the dithienylethene unit both by IR spectroscopy and Raman scattering is explored. A representative series of C5-substituted thienyl hexahydro- and hexafluoro-cyclopentene based photochromes was investigated to explore the effect and potential usefulness of substitution for the development of multicomponent memory materials. The effect of the deposition method on the photochemistry of solid materials containing photochromic dithienylcyclopentene switches was also explored. Photoconversion in the solid state to the closed form was found to be low when starting from the open form, but, in contrast, ring opening to the open state from the closed form was found to be complete. The effect was found to be due to inner filter rather than conformational phenomena. Characteristic vibrational bands for the central dithienyl core are assigned and a comparison made of the vibrational spectroscopic properties of the perhydro- and perfluoro switches. The data enable the determination of the photoconversion achievable in the solid state as well as some assessment of the influence of the deposition method on the photoconversion. The potential of Raman spectroscopy as a method of achieving non-destructive optical readout is demonstrated through the large differences in absolute Raman scattering intensity between the open and closed states, when monitored at wavelengths which do not result in photochemical ring opening.

Inter-domain dynamics in the chaperone SurA and multi-site binding to its outer membrane protein clients

The periplasmic chaperone SurA plays a key role in outer membrane protein (OMP) biogenesis. E. coli SurA comprises a core domain and two peptidylprolyl isomerase domains (P1 and P2), but its mechanisms of client binding and chaperone function have remained unclear. Here, we use chemical cross-linking, hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry, single-molecule FRET and molecular dynamics simulations to map the client binding site(s) on SurA and interrogate the role of conformational dynamics in OMP recognition. We demonstrate that SurA samples an array of conformations in solution in which P2 primarily lies closer to the core/P1 domains than suggested in the SurA crystal structure. OMP binding sites are located primarily in the core domain, and OMP binding results in conformational changes between the core/P1 domains. Together, the results suggest that unfolded OMP substrates bind in a cradle formed between the SurA domains, with structural flexibility between domains assisting OMP recognition, binding and release