Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability

Abstract: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016 and link them to increased planetary wave generation associated with cold Siberian anomalies followed by troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies, in particular those over the Barents-Kara Seas, do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized on 1 October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as their link with the Siberian temperatures. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing associated with Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts from October to December. Plain Language Summary: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern is an observed, large-scale pattern of near-surface temperatures where the Arctic is warmer than average and Siberia is colder than average. This pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its influence on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the possibility of skillful long-range forecasts. It has been proposed that the warm Arctic-cold continent pattern can drive large atmospheric waves, which are able to travel from the troposphere into the stratosphere, where they weaken the strong wintertime winds that make up the stratospheric polar vortex. A weakened polar vortex can then lead to changes in the surface pressure that can affect weather patterns. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex in late autumn 2016 and link that to cold Siberian anomalies. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized in October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and resulting surface pressure patterns. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing by Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.Peer reviewe

Moisture Fluxes Derived from EOS Aqua Satellite Data for the North Water Polynya Over 2003-2009

Satellite data were applied to calculate the moisture flux from the North Water polynya during a series of events spanning 2003-2009. The fluxes were calculated using bulk aerodynamic formulas with the stability effects according to the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. Input parameters were taken from three sources: air relative humidity, air temperature, and surface temperature from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua satellite, sea ice concentration from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E, also onboard Aqua), and wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show the progression of the moisture fluxes from the polynya during each event, as well as their atmospheric effects after the polynya has closed up. These results were compared to results from studies on other polynyas, and fall within one standard deviation of the moisture flux estimates from these studies. Although the estimated moisture fluxes over the entire study region from AIRS are smaller in magnitude than ERA-Interim, they are more accurate due to improved temperature and relative humidity profiles and ice concentration estimates over the polynya. Error estimates were calculated to be 5.56 x10(exp -3) g/sq. m/ s, only 25% of the total moisture flux, thus suggesting that AIRS and AMSR-E can be used with confidence to study smaller scale features in the Arctic sea ice pack and can capture their atmospheric effects. These findings bode well for larger-scale studies of moisture fluxes over the entire Arctic Ocean and the thinning ice pack

Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?

Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal 850 hPa cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020 using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Based on extensive analysis of atmospheric large-scale circulation patterns combined with nearly 2 million kinematic backward trajectories, we show the origins and contributions of various physical processes to the formation of cold wintertime 850 hPa air masses. The location of the cold anomaly region is closely tied to the location of blocking; if the block is located farther to the east, the cold anomaly is also displaced eastwards. Considering air mass evolution along the trajectories, the air parcels are typically initially (5–10 d before) colder than at their arrival in Europe, but initially warmer air parcels also sometimes lead to cold anomalies over Europe. Most commonly the effect of adiabatic warming on the temperature anomalies is overcompensated for by advection from regions that are climatologically colder than the target region, supported by diabatic cooling along the pathway. However, there are regional differences: cold anomalies over western Europe and southeastern Europe are dominantly caused by advection and over eastern Europe by both advective and diabatic processes. The decadal-scale warming in the site of air mass origin has been partly compensated for by enhanced diabatic (radiative) cooling along the pathway to Europe. There have also been decadal changes in large-scale circulation patterns and air mass origin. Our results suggest that understanding future changes in cold extremes will require in-depth analyses of both large-scale circulation and the physical (adiabatic and diabatic) processes.</p

High Latitude Dynamics of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions

Dynamics of atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions in the high latitudes. What: Scientists from 13 countries involved with modeling and observing the coupled high-latitude weather and climate system discussed our current understanding and challenges in polar prediction, extreme events, and coupled processes on scales ranging from cloud and turbulent processes, from micrometers and a few hundred meters to processes on synoptic-scale weather phenomena and pan-Arctic energy budgets of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Workshop participants also evaluated research needs to improve numerical models with usages spanning from uncoupled to fully coupled models used for weather and climate prediction (http://highlatdynamics.b.uib.no/). When: 23–27 March 2015. Where: Rosendal, Norwa

Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyze the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of more than 600 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centered on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who are more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals’ perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations

Assessment of xenoestrogenic exposure by a biomarker approach: application of the E-Screen bioassay to determine estrogenic response of serum extracts

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological documentation of endocrine disruption is complicated by imprecise exposure assessment, especially when exposures are mixed. Even if the estrogenic activity of all compounds were known, the combined effect of possible additive and/or inhibiting interaction of xenoestrogens in a biological sample may be difficult to predict from chemical analysis of single compounds alone. Thus, analysis of mixtures allows evaluation of combined effects of chemicals each present at low concentrations. METHODS: We have developed an optimized in vitro E-Screen test to assess the combined functional estrogenic response of human serum. The xenoestrogens in serum were separated from endogenous steroids and pharmaceuticals by solid-phase extraction followed by fractionation by high-performance liquid chromatography. After dissolution of the isolated fraction in ethanol-DMSO, the reconstituted extract was added with estrogen-depleted fetal calf serum to MCF-7 cells, the growth of which is stimulated by estrogen. After a 6-day incubation on a microwell plate, cell proliferation was assessed and compared with the effect of a 17-beta-estradiol standard. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: To determine the applicability of this approach, we assessed the estrogenicity of serum samples from 30 pregnant and 60 non-pregnant Danish women thought to be exposed only to low levels of endocrine disruptors. We also studied 211 serum samples from pregnant Faroese women, whose marine diet included whale blubber that contain a high concentration of persistent halogenated pollutants. The estrogenicity of the serum from Danish controls exceeded the background in 22.7 % of the cases, while the same was true for 68.1 % of the Faroese samples. The increased estrogenicity response did not correlate with the lipid-based concentrations of individual suspected endocrine disruptors in the Faroese samples. When added along with the estradiol standard, an indication of an enhanced estrogenic response was found in most cases. Thus, the in vitro estrogenicity response offers a promising and feasible approach for an aggregated exposure assessment for xenoestrogens in serum

Governing the Global Land Grab: Multipolarity, Ideas and Complexity in Transnational Governance

Since 2008, a series of new regulatory initiatives have emerged to address large-scale land grabs. These initiatives are occurring simultaneously at multiple levels of social organization instead of a single, overarching institutional site. A significant portion of this activity is taking place at the transnational level. We suggest that transnational land governance is indicative of emerging shifts in the practice of governance of global affairs. We analyze such shifts by asking two related questions: what does land grabbing tell us about developments in transnational governance, particularly with regard to North-South relations, and what do these developments in transnational governance mean for regulating land grabbing?Desde 2008, ha surgido una serie de nuevas iniciativas regulatorias para tratar acaparamientos de tierra a gran escala. Estas iniciativas est&aacute;n sucediendo simult&aacute;neamente a niveles m&uacute;ltiples de la organizaci&oacute;n social en vez de un lugar institucional predominante. Una porci&oacute;n importante de esta actividad est&aacute; tomando lugar al nivel transnacional. Sugerimos que la gobernanza de tierras trasnacionales es indicativa de los cambios que est&aacute;n surgiendo en la pr&aacute;ctica de gobernanza de los asuntos globales. Analizamos tales cambios haciendo dos preguntas relacionadas: &iquest;qu&eacute; nos dice el acaparamiento de tierras sobre los desarrollos en la gobernanza trasnacional, particularmente con las relaciones norte-sur?, y &iquest;qu&eacute; significan estos desarrollos en gobernanza trasnacional para regular el acaparamiento de tierras

Effect of Sex and Prior Exposure to a Cafeteria Diet on the Distribution of Sex Hormones between Plasma and Blood Cells

It is generally assumed that steroid hormones are carried in the blood free and/or bound to plasma proteins. We investigated whether blood cells were also able to bind/carry sex-related hormones: estrone, estradiol, DHEA and testosterone. Wistar male and female rats were fed a cafeteria diet for 30 days, which induced overweight. The rats were fed the standard rat diet for 15 additional days to minimize the immediate effects of excess ingested energy. Controls were always kept on standard diet. After the rats were killed, their blood was used for 1) measuring plasma hormone levels, 2) determining the binding of labeled hormones to washed red blood cells (RBC), 3) incubating whole blood with labeled hormones and determining the distribution of label between plasma and packed cells, discounting the trapped plasma volume, 4) determining free plasma hormone using labeled hormones, both through membrane ultrafiltration and dextran-charcoal removal. The results were computed individually for each rat. Cells retained up to 32% estrone, and down to 10% of testosterone, with marked differences due to sex and diet (the latter only for estrogens, not for DHEA and testosterone). Sex and diet also affected the concentrations of all hormones, with no significant diet effects for estradiol and DHEA, but with considerable interaction between both factors. Binding to RBC was non-specific for all hormones. Estrogen distribution in plasma compartments was affected by sex and diet. In conclusion: a) there is a large non-specific RBC-carried compartment for estrone, estradiol, DHEA and testosterone deeply affected by sex; b) Prior exposure to a cafeteria (hyperlipidic) diet induced hormone distribution changes, affected by sex, which hint at sex-related structural differences in RBC membranes; c) We postulate that the RBC compartment may contribute to maintain free (i.e., fully active) sex hormone levels in a way similar to plasma proteins non-specific binding