Eliciting a directed acyclic graph for a multivariate time series of vehicle counts in a traffic network

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM

Reversible Pressure-Induced Amorphization in Solid C70 : Raman and Photoluminescence Study

We have studied single crystals of $C_{70}$ by Raman scattering and photoluminescence in the pressure range from 0 to 31.1 GPa. The Raman spectrum at 31.1 GPa shows only a broad band similar to that of the amorphous carbon without any trace of the Raman lines of $C_{70}$. After releasing the pressure from 31.1 GPa, the Raman and the photoluminescence spectra of the recovered sample are that of the starting $C_{70}$ crystal. These results indicate that the $C_{70}$ molecules are stable upto 31.1 GPa and the amorphous carbon high pressure phase is reversible, in sharp contrast to the results on solid $C_{60}$. A qualitative explaination is suggested in terms of inter- versus intra-molecular interactions.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev. Lett., 12 pages, RevTeX (preprint format), 3 figures available upon reques

The use of sewage treatment works as foraging sites by insectivorous bats

Sewage treatment works with percolating filter beds are known to provide profitable foraging areas for insectivorous birds due to their association with high macroinvertebrate densities. Fly larvae developing on filter beds at sewage treatment works may similarly provide a valuable resource for foraging bats. Over the last two decades, however, there has been a decline in filter beds towards a system of “activated sludge”. Insects and bat activity were surveyed at 30 sites in Scotland employing these two different types of sewage treatment in order to assess the possible implications of these changes for foraging bats. Bat activity (number of passes) recorded from broad-band bat detectors was quantified at three points within each site. The biomass of aerial insects, sampled over the same period as the detector surveys, was measured using a suction trap. The biomass of insects and activity of Pipistrellus spp. was significantly higher at filter beds than at activated sludge sites. In addition, whilst foraging activity of Pipistrellus spp. at filter beds was comparable to that of adjacent “good” foraging habitat, foraging at activated sludge sites was considerably lower. This study indicates the high potential value of an anthropogenic process to foraging bats, particularly in a landscape where their insect prey has undergone a marked decline, and suggests that the current preference for activated sludge systems is likely to reduce the value of treatment works as foraging sites for bats

Quasars and their host galaxies

This review attempts to describe developments in the fields of quasar and quasar host galaxies in the past five. In this time period, the Sloan and 2dF quasar surveys have added several tens of thousands of quasars, with Sloan quasars being found to z>6. Obscured, or partially obscured quasars have begun to be found in significant numbers. Black hole mass estimates for quasars, and our confidence in them, have improved significantly, allowing a start on relating quasar properties such as radio jet power to fundamental parameters of the quasar such as black hole mass and accretion rate. Quasar host galaxy studies have allowed us to find and characterize the host galaxies of quasars to z>2. Despite these developments, many questions remain unresolved, in particular the origin of the close relationship between black hole mass and galaxy bulge mass/velocity dispersion seen in local galaxies.Comment: Review article, to appear in Astrophysics Update

The Problem of Patent Thickets in Convergent Technologies

Patent thickets are unintentionally dense webs of overlapping intellectual property rights owned by different companies that can retard progress. This article begins with a review of existing research on patent thickets, focusing in particular on the problem of patent thickets in nanotechnology, or nanothickets. After presenting visual evidence of the presence of nanothickets using a network analytic technique, it discusses potential organizational responses to patent thickets. It then reviews the existing research on patent pools and discusses pool formation in the shadow of antitrust enforcement. Based on recent research on patent pool formation, it examines the divergent fate of two recent pools and discusses the prospects for the future formation of nanotechnology patent pools, or nanopools.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72678/1/annals.1382.014.pd

Dust Devil Tracks

Dust devils that leave dark- or light-toned tracks are common on Mars and they can also be found on the Earth’s surface. Dust devil tracks (hereinafter DDTs) are ephemeral surface features with mostly sub-annual lifetimes. Regarding their size, DDT widths can range between ∼1 m and ∼1 km, depending on the diameter of dust devil that created the track, and DDT lengths range from a few tens of meters to several kilometers, limited by the duration and horizontal ground speed of dust devils. DDTs can be classified into three main types based on their morphology and albedo in contrast to their surroundings; all are found on both planets: (a) dark continuous DDTs, (b) dark cycloidal DDTs, and (c) bright DDTs. Dark continuous DDTs are the most common type on Mars. They are characterized by their relatively homogenous and continuous low albedo surface tracks. Based on terrestrial and martian in situ studies, these DDTs most likely form when surficial dust layers are removed to expose larger-grained substrate material (coarse sands of ≥500 μm in diameter). The exposure of larger-grained materials changes the photometric properties of the surface; hence leading to lower albedo tracks because grain size is photometrically inversely proportional to the surface reflectance. However, although not observed so far, compositional differences (i.e., color differences) might also lead to albedo contrasts when dust is removed to expose substrate materials with mineralogical differences. For dark continuous DDTs, albedo drop measurements are around 2.5 % in the wavelength range of 550–850 nm on Mars and around 0.5 % in the wavelength range from 300–1100 nm on Earth. The removal of an equivalent layer thickness around 1 μm is sufficient for the formation of visible dark continuous DDTs on Mars and Earth. The next type of DDTs, dark cycloidal DDTs, are characterized by their low albedo pattern of overlapping scallops. Terrestrial in situ studies imply that they are formed when sand-sized material that is eroded from the outer vortex area of a dust devil is redeposited in annular patterns in the central vortex region. This type of DDT can also be found in on Mars in orbital image data, and although in situ studies are lacking, terrestrial analog studies, laboratory work, and numerical modeling suggest they have the same formation mechanism as those on Earth. Finally, bright DDTs are characterized by their continuous track pattern and high albedo compared to their undisturbed surroundings. They are found on both planets, but to date they have only been analyzed in situ on Earth. Here, the destruction of aggregates of dust, silt and sand by dust devils leads to smooth surfaces in contrast to the undisturbed rough surfaces surrounding the track. The resulting change in photometric properties occurs because the smoother surfaces have a higher reflectance compared to the surrounding rough surface, leading to bright DDTs. On Mars, the destruction of surficial dust-aggregates may also lead to bright DDTs. However, higher reflective surfaces may be produced by other formation mechanisms, such as dust compaction by passing dust devils, as this may also cause changes in photometric properties. On Mars, DDTs in general are found at all elevations and on a global scale, except on the permanent polar caps. DDT maximum areal densities occur during spring and summer in both hemispheres produced by an increase in dust devil activity caused by maximum insolation. Regionally, dust devil densities vary spatially likely controlled by changes in dust cover thicknesses and substrate materials. This variability makes it difficult to infer dust devil activity from DDT frequencies. Furthermore, only a fraction of dust devils leave tracks. However, DDTs can be used as proxies for dust devil lifetimes and wind directions and speeds, and they can also be used to predict lander or rover solar panel clearing events. Overall, the high DDT frequency in many areas on Mars leads to drastic albedo changes that affect large-scale weather patterns

Age at first birth in women is genetically associated with increased risk of schizophrenia

Prof. Paunio on PGC:n jäsenPrevious studies have shown an increased risk for mental health problems in children born to both younger and older parents compared to children of average-aged parents. We previously used a novel design to reveal a latent mechanism of genetic association between schizophrenia and age at first birth in women (AFB). Here, we use independent data from the UK Biobank (N = 38,892) to replicate the finding of an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women, and to estimate the genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in women stratified into younger and older groups. We find evidence for an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women (P-value = 1.12E-05), and we show genetic heterogeneity between younger and older AFB groups (P-value = 3.45E-03). The genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in the younger AFB group is -0.16 (SE = 0.04) while that between schizophrenia and AFB in the older AFB group is 0.14 (SE = 0.08). Our results suggest that early, and perhaps also late, age at first birth in women is associated with increased genetic risk for schizophrenia in the UK Biobank sample. These findings contribute new insights into factors contributing to the complex bio-social risk architecture underpinning the association between parental age and offspring mental health.Peer reviewe