Contribution of the cold sector of extratropical cyclones to mean state features in winter

Recent studies have shown that midlatitude air-sea interactions are strongly modulated by synoptic variability. The present study investigates how air-sea interactions over the Gulf-Stream sea surface temperature (SST) front vary in different synoptic regimes. We focus more particularly on the variation of three atmospheric mean state features which are colocated with the SST front in winter : enhanced ascent and precipitation on the warm side of the SST front and enhanced low-level baroclinicity at the entrance of the storm track. These three fields are partitioned depending on whether they occur in the cold sector of extratropical cyclones or in any other synoptic features. The analysis is based on ERA Interim winter data covering the period 1979–2012. Results are twofold. (i) Cold sector precipitation is confined within a 5° of latitude band south of the SST front and reaches 2 mm day-1, whereas precipitation occurring outside the cold sector forms a broader spatial pattern. The same partitioning applied to vertical wind shows that the ascent on the warm side of the Gulf Stream is not a feature of the cold sector. These results mean that a significant part of the anchoring effect of the SST front on precipitation occurs via the cold sector and that the observed colocation of ascent and precipitation is not causal, in contrast to what was suggested by previous studies, but is rather the result of two different mechanisms. (ii) The surface heat fluxes and convection occurring in the cold sector restore low-level atmospheric temperature gradients within 2 days after a time maximum of meridional eddy heat flux, such that low-level baroclinicity remains largely unchanged after the passage of an extratropical cyclone. This "cold path mechanism" opens new avenues to understand how SST forces climate variability in the midlatitudes

Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

International audienceTwo lacustrine sediment cores from Lake Ledro in northern Italy were studied to produce chronologies of floodevents for the past 10 000 yr. For this purpose, we have developed an automatic method that objectively identifies the sedimentary imprint of river floods in the downstream lake basin. The method was based on colour data extracted from processed core photographs, and the count data were analysed to capture the flood signal. Flood frequency and reconstructed sedimentary dynamics were compared with lake-level changes and pollen inferred vegetation dynamics. The results suggest a record marked by low flood frequency during the early and middle Holocene (10 000–4500 cal BP). Only modest increases during short intervals are recorded at ca. 8000, 7500, and 7100 cal BP. After 4500–4000 cal BP, the record shows a shift toward increased flood frequency. With the exception of two short intervals around 2900–2500 and 1800–1400 cal BP, which show a slightly reduced number of floods, the trend of increasing flood frequency prevailed until the 20th century, reaching a maximum between the 16th and the 19th centuries. Brief-flood frequency increases recorded during the early and middle Holocene can be attributed to climatic oscillations. On a centennial time scale, major changes in flood frequency, such as those observed after ca. 4500/4000 and 500 cal BP, can be attributed to large-scale climatic changes such as the Neo-glacial and Little Ice Age, which are under orbital and possibly solar control. However, in the Bronze Age and during the Middle Ages and modern times, forest clearing and land use probably partially control the flood activity

Does the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM overestimate land precipitation at high resolution? A constraint based on observed river discharge

Previous studies showed that high-resolution GCMs overestimate land precipitation when compared against observation-based data. Particularly, high-resolution HadGEM3-GC3.1 shows a significant precipitation increase in mountainous regions, where the scarcity of gauge stations increases the uncertainty of gridded observations and reanalyses. This work evaluates such precipitation uncertainties indirectly through the assessment of river discharge, considering that an increase of ~10% in land precipitation produces ~28% more runoff when the resolution is enhanced from 1° to 0.25°, and ~50% of the global runoff is produced in 27% of global land dominated by mountains. We diagnosed the river flow by routing the runoff generated by HadGEM3-GC3.1 low- and high-resolution simulations. The river flow is evaluated using a set of 344 monitored catchments distributed around the world. We also infer the global discharge by constraining the simulations with observations following a novel approach that implies bias correction in monitored rivers with two methods, and extension of the correction to the river mouth, and along the coast. Our global discharge estimate is 47.4 ± 1.6 × 103 km3 yr−1, which is closer to the original high-resolution estimate (50.5 × 103 km3 yr−1) than to the low-resolution (39.6 × 103 km3 yr−1). The assessment suggests that high-resolution simulations perform better in mountainous regions, either because the better-defined orography favors the placement of precipitation in the correct catchment, leading to a more accurate distribution of runoff, or the orographic precipitation increases, reducing the dry runoff bias of coarse-resolution simulations. However, high-resolution slightly increases wet biases in catchments dominated by flat terrain. The improvement of model parameterizations and tuning may reduce the remaining errors in high-resolution simulations

Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments

CMIP6 HighResMIP is a new experimental design for global climate model simulations that aims to assess the impact of model horizontal resolution on climate simulation fidelity. We describe a hierarchy of global coupled model resolutions based on the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model that range from an atmosphere-ocean resolution of 130 km-1° to 25 km-1/12°, all using the same forcings and initial conditions. In order to make such high resolution simulations possible, the experiments have a short 30 year spinup, followed by at least century-long simulations with both constant forcing (to assess drift and the focus of this work), and historic forcing. We assess the change in model biases as a function of both atmosphere and ocean resolution, together with the effectiveness and robustness of this new experimental design. We find reductions in the biases in top of atmosphere radiation components and cloud forcing. There are significant reductions in some common surface climate model biases as resolution is increased, particularly in the Atlantic for sea surface temperature and precipitation, primarily driven by increased ocean resolution. There is also a reduction in drift from the initial conditions both at the surface and in the deeper ocean at higher resolution. Using an eddy-present and eddy-rich ocean resolution enhances the strength of the North Atlantic ocean circulation (boundary currents, overturning circulation and heat transports), while an eddy-present ocean resolution has a considerably reduced Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength. All models have a reasonable representation of El Nino – Southern Oscillation. In general the biases present after 30 years of simulations do not change character markedly over longer timescales, justifying the experimental design

Reconstructions of biomass burning from sediment charcoal records to improve data-model comparisons

The location, timing, spatial extent, and frequency of wildfires are changing rapidly in many parts of the world, producing substantial impacts on ecosystems, people, and potentially climate. Paleofire records based on charcoal accumulation in sediments enable modern changes in biomass burning to be considered in their long-term context. Paleofire records also provide insights into the causes and impacts of past wildfires and emissions when analyzed in conjunction with other paleoenvironmental data and with fire models. Here we present new 1000 year and 22 000 year trends and gridded biomass burning reconstructions based on the Global Charcoal Database version 3, which includes 736 charcoal records (57 more than in version 2). The new gridded reconstructions reveal the spatial patterns underlying the temporal trends in the data, allowing insights into likely controls on biomass burning at regional to global scales. In the most recent few decades, biomass burning has sharply increased in both hemispheres, but especially in the north, where charcoal fluxes are now higher than at any other time during the past 22 000 {years}. We also discuss methodological issues relevant to data-model comparisons, and identify areas for future research. Spatially gridded versions of the global dataset from GCDv3 are provided to facilitate comparison with and validation of global fire simulations

Cloud feedbacks in extratopical cyclones: insight from long-term satellite data and high-resolution global simulations

A negative extratropical shortwave cloud feedback driven by changes in cloud optical depth is a feature of global climate models (GCMs). A robust positive trend in observed liquid water path (LWP) over the last two decades across the warming Southern Ocean supports the negative shortwave cloud feedback predicted by GCMs. This feature has been proposed to be due to transitions from ice to liquid with warming. To gain insight into the shortwave cloud feedback we examine extratropical cyclone variability and the response of extratropical cyclones to transient warming in GCM simulations. Multi-Sensor Advanced Climatology Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP) microwave observations of cyclone properties from the period 1992–2015 are contrasted with GCM simulations, with horizontal resolutions ranging from 7 km to hundreds of kilometers. We find that inter-cyclone variability in LWP in both observations and models is strongly driven by the moisture flux along the cyclone's warm conveyor belt (WCB). Stronger WCB moisture flux enhances the LWP within cyclones. This relationship is replicated in GCMs, although its strength varies substantially across models. It is found that more than 80 % of the enhancement in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical cyclone LWP in GCMs in response to a transient 4 K warming can be predicted based on the relationship between the WCB moisture flux and cyclone LWP in the historical climate and their change in moisture flux between the historical and warmed climates. Further, it is found that that the robust trend in cyclone LWP over the Southern Ocean in observations and GCMs is consistent with changes in the moisture flux. We propose two cloud feedbacks acting within extratropical cyclones: a negative feedback driven by Clausius–Clapeyron increasing water vapor path (WVP), which enhances the amount of water vapor available to be fluxed into the cyclone, and a feedback moderated by changes in the life cycle and vorticity of cyclones under warming, which changes the rate at which existing moisture is imported into the cyclone. Both terms contribute to increasing LWP within the cyclone. While changes in moisture flux predict cyclone LWP trends in the current climate and the majority of changes in LWP in transient warming simulations, a portion of the LWP increase in response to climate change that is unexplained by increasing moisture fluxes may be due to phase transitions. The variability in LWP within cyclone composites is examined to understand what cyclonic regimes the mixed-phase cloud feedback is relevant to. At a fixed WCB moisture flux cyclone LWP increases with increasing sea surface temperature (SST) in the half of the composite poleward of the low and decreases in the half equatorward of the low in both GCMs and observations. Cloud-top phase partitioning observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) indicates that phase transitions may be driving increases in LWP in the poleward half of cyclones

Impact of higher spatial atmospheric resolution on precipitation extremes over land in global climate models

Finer grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess the influence on model performance of increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs of high‐ and low‐resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six global climate models (generally the latest CMIP6 version) on a common 1° × 1° grid. The differences in tuning between the lower and higher resolution versions are as limited as possible, which allows the influence of higher resolution to be assessed exclusively. We focus on the 1985–2014 climatology of annual extremes of daily precipitation over global land, and models are compared to observations from different sources (i.e., in situ‐based and satellite‐based) to enable consideration of observational uncertainty. Finally, we address regional features of model performance based on four indices characterizing different aspects of precipitation extremes. Our analysis highlights good agreement between models that precipitation extremes are more intense at higher resolution. We find that the spread among observations is substantial and can be as large as intermodel differences, which makes the quantitative evaluation of model performance difficult. However, consistently across the four precipitation extremes indices that we investigate, models often show lower skill at higher resolution compared to their corresponding lower resolution version. Our findings suggest that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g., physics and tuning) may be required