The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models

Comparing induction at an early and late step in signal transduction mediating indirect defence in Brassica oleracea

The induction of plant defences involves a sequence of steps along a signal transduction pathway, varying in time course. In this study, the effects of induction of an early and a later step in plant defence signal transduction on plant volatile emission and parasitoid attraction are compared. Ion channel-forming peptides represent a class of inducers that induce an early step in signal transduction. Alamethicin (ALA) is an ion channel-forming peptide mixture from the fungus Trichoderma viride that can induce volatile emission and increase endogenous levels of jasmonic acid (JA) and salicylic acid in plants. ALA was used to induce an early step in the defence response in Brussels sprouts plants, Brassica oleracea var. gemmifera, and to study the effect on volatile emission and on the behavioural response of parasitoids to volatile emission. The parasitoid Cotesia glomerata was attracted to ALA-treated plants in a dose-dependent manner. JA, produced through the octadecanoid pathway, activates a later step in induced plant defence signal transduction, and JA also induces volatiles that are attractive to parasitoids. Treatment with ALA and JA resulted in distinct volatile blends, and both blends differed from the volatile blends emitted by control plants. Even though JA treatment of Brussels sprouts plants resulted in higher levels of volatile emission, ALA-treated plants were as attractive to C. glomerata as JA-treated plants. This demonstrates that on a molar basis, ALA is a 20 times more potent inducer of indirect plant defence than JA, although this hormone has more commonly been used as a chemical inducer of plant defence

Volatile Constituents, Inorganic Elements and Primary Screening of Bioactivity of Black Coral Cigarette Holders

Black corals (BC) have been used for a long time in Chinese medicine, and may have some pharmaceutical functions when used as material for cigarette holders in southeast China. This study is aimed to investigate the bioactivities of volatile constituents in BC and to explore the folklore behind the use of BC cigarette holders (BCCHs). We extracted the volatile constituents of BC by supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) with carbon dioxide (CO2-SFE), then identified and analyzed the constituents by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). In total, 15 components were reliably identified in BC and found to be biologically active. These included triethyl phosphate, butylated hydroxytoluene, cedrol, n-hexadecanoic acid, squalene, and cholesterol. Meanwhile 13 inorganic elements (P, Ca, Mg, S, B, Si, Fe, Cu, Zn, Ba, etc.) were determined by inductively coupled plasma spectrometer (ICPS). In the bioactivity tests, the BC extract (BCE) showed a scavenging activity of 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl free radicals and hydroxyl radicals by phenanthroline-Fe (II) oxidation and moderate inhibition of Gram-positive microorganisms. The antioxidant and antimicrobial activities of BC, which are related to the active chemical composition, may explain the perceived benefit for cigarette smokers who use BCCHs

Professional learning communities and the integration of environmental education into teaching practice

This thesis project investigates the use of one elementary school's Professional Learning Community (PLC) as a means of increasing teachers' abilities and willingness to effectively integrate Environmental Education (EE) in their teaching practices. The study was conducted as an action research project. Teachers worked collaboratively to develop a learning project with a focus on environmental education, integrating multiple curriculum outcomes from Alberta Education's grade three Programs of Study with the intent to implement this project with their students. The PLC was found to be an effective vehicle for increasing teachers' awareness of and willingness to teach EE. It provided the space and time necessary for a more thorough exploration of EE and its importance within the Alberta provincial school system. The teachers were able to work together successfully toward a common goal and became more open to implementing EE by talking through concerns and focusing on commonly held values and objectives

DVT Serial Number Recognition System

Created in fulfillment of the course requirements for ENGG*3100 Engineering and Design III. This course combines the knowledge gained in the advanced engineering and basic science courses with the design skills taught in ENGG*1100 and ENGG*2100 in solving open-ended problems. These problems are related to the student's major. Additional design tools are presented, including model simulation, sensitivity analysis, linear programming, knowledge-based systems and computer programming. Complementing these tools are discussions on writing and public speaking techniques, codes, safety issues, environmental assessment and professional management. These topics are taught with the consideration of available resources and cost.In this paper, a design solution is presented which optimizes an existing DVT serial number recognition system installed at CAMTAC in Guelph. The design outlines a method to configure the system, which includes a number of hardware and software parameters. Furthermore, a background script was developed to allow more time for characters to be recognized as well as to reduce erroneous character recognition. Preliminary tests show that the design improved serial number recognition by 85 percent

Observational Evidence that Soil Moisture Variations Affect Precipitation

Land-atmosphere feedback, by which precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies affect subsequent precipitation, may be an important element of Earth's climate system, but its very existence has never been demonstrated conclusively at regional to continental scales. Evidence for the feedback is sought in a 50-year observational precipitation dataset covering the United States. The precipitation variance and autocorrelation fields are characterized by features that agree (in structure, though not in magnitude) with those produced by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Because the model-generated features are known to result from land-atmosphere feedback alone, the observed features are highly suggestive of the existence of feedback in nature