Linking Ground, Space and Knowledge: The Role of Weather Forecasting in Pastoralists\u27 Decision-Making

Changing weather patterns and decreasing land availability continue to challenge the livelihood of the pastoralists in northern Tanzania. The increasing variability of expected rains has complicated livestock management, often jeopardizing household resilience. Drought Early Warning Systems are being set up to contribute to decision-making processes at national and international levels. Nevertheless, due to the large spatial- and temporal resolution of these systems and their high uncertainties, these systems have limited value at a pastoral household level. Therefore, this paper explores what type of weather and climate information is deemed valuable for pastoral households in Longido District, Tanzania. It is based on an ethnographic study, conducted over a period of four months. It explores what weather information would be useful, the necessary scale of desired information, the required lead time of communication and, lastly, the most effective method of communicating forecast information. Following on this data, the study assessed the status of remote sensing and weather forecast modelling, exploring the question, the desired weather information can be forecast with enough skill and at a scale that is relevant to pastoral households in Longido? The ECMWF weather model was used in the assessment, revealing some optimism and scepticism concerning the status of existing information and technologies. Technological recommendations include verification of rainfall data, further research on the rainfall threshold concept, and exploring the model skill of embedded models in Tanzania. At the level of implementation , recommendations include discussing the adverse impacts of actions taken based on the forecasts and forming an implementation advisory group, which includes a comprehensive breadth of stakeholders, such as knowledgeable community members, village leaders, traditional leaders and also professionals from the field of climate sciences, rangeland ecology and anthropology

Gut-microbe derived TMAO and its association with more progressed forms of AF:Results from the AF-RISK study

Introduction: The importance of gut microbiome in cardiovascular disease has been increasingly recognized. Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is a gut microbe-derived metabolite that is associated with cardiovascular disease, including atrial fibrillation (AF). The role of TMAO in clinical AF progression however remains unknown. Methods and results: In this study we measured TMAO and its precursor (betaine, choline, and L- carnitine) levels in 78 patients using plasma samples from patients that participated in the AF-RISK study. 56 patients suffered from paroxysmal AF and 22 had a short history of persistent AF. TMAO levels were significantly higher in patients with persistent AF, as compared to those with paroxysmal AF (median [IQR] 5.65 [4.7–9.6] m/z versus 4.31 [3.2–6.2] m/z, p < 0.05), while precursor levels did not differ. In univariate analysis, we observed that for every unit increase in TMAO, the odds for having persistent AF increased with 0.44 [0.14–0.73], p < 0.01. Conclusion: These results suggest that higher levels of TMAO are associated with more progressed forms of AF. We therefore hypothesize that increased TMAO levels may reflect disease progression in humans. Larger studies are required to validate these preliminary findings.Trial Registration number: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210

Molecular profiles of BRCA1-mutated and matched sporadic breast tumours: relation with clinico-pathological features

About 5–10% of breast cancers are hereditary; a genetically and clinically heterogeneous disease in which several susceptibility genes, including BRCA1, have been identified. While distinct tumour features can be used to estimate the likelihood that a breast tumour is caused by a BRCA1 germline mutation it is not yet possible to categorize a BRCA1 mutated tumour. The aim of the present study is to molecularly classify BRCA1 mutated breast cancers by resolving gene expression patterns of BRCA1 and matched sporadic surgical breast tumour specimens. The expression profiles of 6 frozen breast tumour tissues with a proven BRCA1 gene mutation were weighed against those from 12 patients without a known family history but who had similar clinico-pathological characteristics. In addition two fibroblast cultures, the breast cancer cell-line HCC1937 and its corresponding B-lymphoblastoid cell line (heterozygous for mutation BRCA1 5382insC) and an epithelial ovarian cancer cell line (A2780) were studied. Using a high density membrane based array for screening of RNA isolated from these samples and standard algorithms and software, we were able to distinguish subgroups of sporadic cases and a group consisting mainly of BRCA1-mutated breast tumours. Furthermore this pilot analysis revealed a gene cluster that differentially expressed genes related to cell substrate formation, adhesion, migration and cell organization in BRCA1-mutated tumours compared to sporadic breast tumours. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Stroke risk in patients with device-detected atrial high-rate episodes

Cardiovascular implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) can detect atrial arrhythmias, i.e. atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE). The thrombo-embolic risk in patients showing AHRE appears to be lower than in patients with clinical atrial fibrillation (AF) and it is unclear whether the former will benefit from oral anticoagulants. Based on currently available evidence, it seems reasonable to consider antithrombotic therapy in patients without documented AF showing AHRE >24 hours and a CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age >= 75 years [doubled], diabetes mellitus, prior stroke [doubled], vascular disease, age 65-74 years and female sex) >= 1, awaiting definite answers from ongoing randomised clinical trials. In patients with AHR

Instrumental Music Influences Recognition of Emotional Body Language

In everyday life, emotional events are perceived by multiple sensory systems. Research has shown that recognition of emotions in one modality is biased towards the emotion expressed in a simultaneously presented but task irrelevant modality. In the present study, we combine visual and auditory stimuli that convey similar affective meaning but have a low probability of co-occurrence in everyday life. Dynamic face-blurred whole body expressions of a person grasping an object while expressing happiness or sadness are presented in combination with fragments of happy or sad instrumental classical music. Participants were instructed to categorize the emotion expressed by the visual stimulus. The results show that recognition of body language is influenced by the auditory stimuli. These findings indicate that crossmodal influences as previously observed for audiovisual speech can also be obtained from the ignored auditory to the attended visual modality in audiovisual stimuli that consist of whole bodies and music

Social media posts and online search behaviour as early-warning system for MRSA outbreaks

Despite many preventive measures, outbreaks with multi-drug resistant micro-organisms (MDROs) still occur. Moreover, current alert systems from healthcare organizations have shortcomings due to delayed or incomplete notifications, which may amplify the spread of MDROs by introducing infected patients into a new healthcare setting and institutions. Additional sources of information about upcoming and current outbreaks, may help to prevent further spread of MDROs.The study objective was to evaluate whether methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks could be detected via social media posts or online search behaviour; if so, this might allow earlier detection than the official notifications by healthcare organizations

Complex organic molecules in low-mass protostars on Solar System scales -- II. Nitrogen-bearing species

The chemical inventory of planets is determined by the physical and chemical processes that govern the early phases of star formation. The aim is to investigate N-bearing complex organic molecules towards two Class 0 protostars (B1-c and S68N) at millimetre wavelengths with ALMA. Next, the results of the detected N-bearing species are compared with those of O-bearing species for the same and other sources. ALMA observations in Band 6 ($\sim$ 1 mm) and Band 5 ($\sim$ 2 mm) are studied at $\sim$ 0.5" resolution, complemented by Band 3 ($\sim$ 3 mm) data in a $\sim$ 2.5" beam. NH2CHO, C2H5CN, HNCO, HN13CO, DNCO, CH3CN, CH2DCN, and CHD2CN are identified towards the investigated sources. Their abundances relative to CH3OH and HNCO are similar for the two sources, with column densities that are typically an order of magnitude lower than those of O-bearing species. The largest variations, of an order of magnitude, are seen for NH2CHO abundance ratios with respect to HNCO and CH3OH and do not correlate with the protostellar luminosity. In addition, within uncertainties, the N-bearing species have similar excitation temperatures to those of O-bearing species ($\sim$ 100 $\sim$ 300 K). The similarity of most abundances with respect to HNCO, including those of CH2DCN and CHD2CN, hints at a shared chemical history, especially the high D/H ratio in cold regions prior to star formation. However, some of the variations in abundances may reflect the sensitivity of the chemistry to local conditions such as temperature (e.g. NH2CHO), while others may arise from differences in the emitting areas of the molecules linked to their different binding energies in the ice. The two sources discussed here add to the small number of sources with such a detailed chemical analysis on Solar System scales. Future JWST data will allow a direct comparison between the ice and gas abundances of N-bearing species.Comment: Accepted to A&A, 41 pages, 37 figure

Dynamics of the QTc interval over a 24-h dose interval after start of intravenous ciprofloxacin or low-dose erythromycin administration in ICU patients

QTc interval prolongation is an adverse effect associated with the use of fluoroquinolones and macrolides. Ciprofloxacin and erythromycin are both frequently prescribed QTc-prolonging drugs in critically ill patients. Critically ill patients may be more vulnerable to developing QTc prolongation, as several risk factors can be present at the same time. Therefore, it is important to know the QTc-prolonging potential of these drugs in the intensive care unit (ICU) population. The aim of this study was to assess the dynamics of the QTc interval over a 24-hour dose interval during intravenous ciprofloxacin and low-dose erythromycin treatment. Therefore, an observational study was performed in ICU patients (>= 18 years) receiving ciprofloxacin 400 mg t.i.d. or erythromycin 100 mg b.i.d. intravenously. Continuous ECG data were collected from 2 h before to 24 h after the first administration. QT-analyses were performed using high-end holter software. The effect was determined with a two-sample t-test for clustered data on all QTc values. A linear mixed model by maximum likelihood was applied, for which QTc values were assessed for the available time intervals and therapy. No evident effect over time on therapy with ciprofloxacin and erythromycin was observed on QTc time. There was no significant difference (p = 0.22) in QTc values between the ciprofloxacin group (mean 393 ms) and ciprofloxacin control group (mean 386 ms). The erythromycin group (mean 405 ms) and erythromycin control group (mean 404 ms) neither showed a significant difference (p = 0.80). In 0.6% of the registrations (1.138 out of 198.270 samples) the duration of the QTc interval was longer than 500 ms. The index groups showed slightly more recorded QTc intervals over 500 ms. To conclude, this study could not identify differences in the QTc interval between the treatments analyzed.Clinical Pharmacy and Toxicolog

Incremental QBF Solving

We consider the problem of incrementally solving a sequence of quantified Boolean formulae (QBF). Incremental solving aims at using information learned from one formula in the process of solving the next formulae in the sequence. Based on a general overview of the problem and related challenges, we present an approach to incremental QBF solving which is application-independent and hence applicable to QBF encodings of arbitrary problems. We implemented this approach in our incremental search-based QBF solver DepQBF and report on implementation details. Experimental results illustrate the potential benefits of incremental solving in QBF-based workflows.Comment: revision (camera-ready, to appear in the proceedings of CP 2014, LNCS, Springer

Rationale and current perspective for early rhythm control therapy in atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia and an important source for mortality and morbidity on a population level. Despite the clear association between AF and death, stroke, and other cardiovascular events, there is no evidence that rhythm control treatment improves outcome in AF patients. The poor outcome of rhythm control relates to the severity of the atrial substrate for AF not only due to the underlying atrial remodelling process but also due to the poor efficacy and adverse events of the currently available ion-channel antiarrhythmic drugs and ablation techniques. Data suggest, however, an association between sinus rhythm maintenance and improved survival. Hypothetically, sinus rhythm may also lead to a lower risk of stroke and heart failure. The presence of AF, thus, seems one of the modifiable factors associated with death and cardiovascular morbidity in AF patients. Patients with a short history of AF and the underlying heart disease have not been studied before. It is fair to assume that abolishment of AF in these patients is more successful and possibly also safer, which could translate into a prognostic benefit of early rhythm control therapy. Several trials are now investigating whether aggressive early rhythm control therapy can reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and increase maintenance of sinus rhythm. In the present paper we describe the background of these studies and provide some information on their design