The UK Transport Carbon Model : An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

Peer reviewedPostprin

Variation in beliefs about 'fracking' between the UK and US

In decision-making on the politically-contentious issue of unconventional gas development, the UK Government and European Commission are attempting to learn from the US experience. Although economic, environmental, and health impacts and regulatory contexts have been compared cross-nationally, public perceptions and their antecedents have not. We conducted similar online panel surveys of national samples of UK and US residents simultaneously in September 2014 to compare public perceptions and beliefs affecting such perceptions. The US sample was more likely to associate positive impacts with development (i.e., production of clean energy, cheap energy, and advancing national energy security). The UK sample was more likely to associate negative impacts (i.e., water contamination, higher carbon emissions, and earthquakes). Multivariate analyses reveal divergence cross-nationally in the relationship between beliefs about impacts and support/opposition – especially for beliefs about energy security. People who associated shale gas development with increased energy security in the UK were over three times more likely to support development than people in the US with this same belief. We conclude with implications for policy and communication, discussing communication approaches that could be successful cross-nationally and policy foci to which the UK might need to afford more attention in its continually evolving regulatory environment

Modeling the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a consumer segmentation approach

There is broad agreement on the need for substantial use of low carbon vectors in the long term in the transport sector. Electrification, via mass market adoption of plug-in vehicles (i.e. battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), has emerged as a front runner for road transport across the globe, but there are concerns that the pace and extent implied by many modelling studies is problematic and that assessment of (a) the heterogeneity in the market, (b) other low carbon vectors (e.g. conventional hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell) and (c) life cycle energy and environmental impacts have been relatively neglected. This paper aims to fill these gaps by examining the timing, scale and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in the heterogeneous UK car market from a consumer perspective. To achieve this aim it (a) brings together a bespoke disaggregated model of the transport-energy-environment system (the UK Transport Carbon Model) with previous work by the authors on heterogeneity in the demand for and supply of plug-in vehicles and (b) applies the improved model to develop future low carbon scenarios that assess the potential impact of different investment pathways and policy approaches to the electrification of cars with the view to meeting the UK’s legally binding carbon budgets to 2050. The results show the importance of accounting for the heterogeneity in and dynamic nature of the car market in terms of new technology adoption by private consumers, so called ‘user choosers’ and fleet managers, as well as accounting for potential effects on wider life cycle emissions resulting from different uptake pathways. It allows an assessment of the effectiveness of different policy instruments, market conditions (vehicle supply, private vs fleet market, vehicle segments) and social factors (consumer awareness, range “anxiety”, perceived charging requirements) on different consumer segments, thus providing more policy-focused conclusions on the likely pathways to high penetration of plug-in vehicles that may be required to meet future carbon and air quality targets

Desperately seeking niches: Grassroots innovations and niche development in the community currency field

The sustainability transitions literature seeks to explain the conditions under which technological innovations can diffuse and disrupt existing socio-technical systems through the successful scaling up of experimental ‘niches’; but recent research on ‘grassroots innovations’ argues that civil society is a promising but under-researched site of innovation for sustainability, albeit one with very different characteristics to the market-based innovation normally considered in the literature. This paper aims to address that research gap by exploring the relevance of niche development theories in a civil society context. To do this, we examine a growing grassroots innovation – the international field of community currencies – which comprises a range of new socio-technical configurations of systems of exchange which have emerged from civil society over the last 30 years, intended to provide more environmentally and socially sustainable forms of money and finance. We draw on new empirical research from an international study of these initiatives comprising primary and secondary data and documentary sources, elite interviews and participant observation in the field. We describe the global diffusion of community currencies, and then conduct a niche analysis to evaluate the utility of niche theories for explaining the development of the community currency movement. We find that some niche-building processes identified in the existing literature are relevant in a grassroots context: the importance of building networks, managing expectations and the significance of external ‘landscape’ pressures, particularly at the level of national-type. However, our findings suggest that existing theories do not fully capture the complexity of this type of innovation: we find a diverse field addressing a range of societal systems (money, welfare, education, health, consumerism), and showing increasing fragmentation (as opposed to consolidation and standardisation); furthermore, there is little evidence of formalised learning taking place but this has not hampered movement growth. We conclude that grassroots innovations develop and diffuse in quite different ways to conventional innovations, and that niche theories require adaptation to the civil society context

Increasing biomass resource availability through supply chain analysis

Increased inclusion of biomass in energy strategies all over the world means that greater mobilisation of biomass resources will be required to meet demand. Strategies of many EU countries assume the future use of non-EU sourced biomass. An increasing number of studies call for the UK to consider alternative options, principally to better utilise indigenous resources. This research identifies the indigenous biomass resources that demonstrate the greatest promise for the UK bioenergy sector and evaluates the extent that different supply chain drivers influence resource availability. The analysis finds that the UK's resources with greatest primary bioenergy potential are household wastes (>115 TWh by 2050), energy crops (>100 TWh by 2050) and agricultural residues (>80 TWh by 2050). The availability of biomass waste resources was found to demonstrate great promise for the bioenergy sector, although are highly susceptible to influences, most notably by the focus of adopted waste management strategies. Biomass residue resources were found to be the resource category least susceptible to influence, with relatively high near-term availability that is forecast to increase – therefore representing a potentially robust resource for the bioenergy sector. The near-term availability of UK energy crops was found to be much less significant compared to other resource categories. Energy crops represent long-term potential for the bioenergy sector, although achieving higher limits of availability will be dependent on the successful management of key influencing drivers. The research highlights that the availability of indigenous resources is largely influenced by a few key drivers, this contradicting areas of consensus of current UK bioenergy policy

Suicide in an ageing UK population: problems and prevention

Purpose Suicide can be an emotive, and at times, controversial subject. The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the social, health, personal, and cultural issues that can arise in later life and the potential reasons for suicide. It will analyse already recognised risk factors of suicide in older adults and focus on improving knowledge about the social meaning and causation of suicide for older people. It will also consider suicide prevention policies, their practice implications, and whether they are successful in protecting this potentially vulnerable cohort. Design/methodology/approach A synopsis of available literature in the form of a general review paper of suicide of older adults. Findings There is evidence that the ageing process often leads to a set of co-morbidities and a complex and diverse set of individual challenges. This in turn equates to an increased risk of suicide. There is no easy answer to why there is evidence of a growing number of older adults deciding that suicide is there only option, and even fewer suggestions on how to manage this risk. Social implications The entry of the “baby boom” generation into retirement will lead to the potential of an increase in both suicide risk factors and older adults completing suicide. This is on the background of a demographic surge which is likely to place additional pressures on already under-resourced, and undervalued, statutory and non-statutory services. Originality/value A literature search found very little information regarding older adults and suicide risk, assessment, treatment or prevention. </jats:sec

Predictions on near-field dispersion at two sewage outfalls into the Severn with a tidal power barrage

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