Secularism, fundamentalism or Catholicism: the religious composition of the United States to 2043

We provide a cohort-component projection of the religious composition of the United States, considering differences in fertility, migration, intergenerational religious transmission, and switching among 11 ethnoreligious groups. If fertility and migration trends continue, Hispanic Catholics will experience rapid growth and expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043. Protestants are projected to decrease from 47 to 39 percent over the same period, while Catholicism emerges as the largest religion among the youngest age cohorts. Liberal Protestants decline relative to other groups due to low fertility and losses from religious switching. Immigration drives growth among Hindus and Muslims, while low fertility and a mature age structure causes Jewish decline. The low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of immigrants provide a countervailing force to secularization, causing the nonreligious population share to peak before 2043

Worldwide Use and Impact of the NASA Astrophysics Data System Digital Library

By combining data from the text, citation, and reference databases with data from the ADS readership logs we have been able to create Second Order Bibliometric Operators, a customizable class of collaborative filters which permits substantially improved accuracy in literature queries. Using the ADS usage logs along with membership statistics from the International Astronomical Union and data on the population and gross domestic product (GDP) we develop an accurate model for world-wide basic research where the number of scientists in a country is proportional to the GDP of that country, and the amount of basic research done by a country is proportional to the number of scientists in that country times that country's per capita GDP. We introduce the concept of utility time to measure the impact of the ADS/URANIA and the electronic astronomical library on astronomical research. We find that in 2002 it amounted to the equivalent of 736 FTE researchers, or $250 Million, or the astronomical research done in France. Subject headings: digital libraries; bibliometrics; sociology of science; information retrievalComment: ADS bibcode: 2005JASIS..56...36K This is a portion (The bibliometric properties of article readership information is the other part) of the article: The NASA Astrophysics Data System: Sociology, bibliometrics and impact, which went on-line in the summer of 200

Interannual variation in global-scale net primary production: Testing model estimates

Testing estimates of year‐to‐year variation in global net primary production (NPP) poses some challenges. Large‐scale, multiyear records of production are not readily available for natural systems but are for agricultural systems. We use records of agricultural yields at selected sites to test NPP estimates produced by CASA, a global‐scale production model driven by both meteorological data and the satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We also test estimates produced by the Miami model, which has underlain several analyses of biosphere response to interannual changes in climate. In addition, we test estimates against tree ring data for one boreal site for which data from both coniferous and deciduous species were available. The agricultural tests demonstrate that CASA can reasonably estimate interannual variation in production. The Miami model estimates variation more poorly. However, differences in NDVI‐processing algorithms substantially affect CASA's estimates of interannual variation. Of the four versions tested, the FASIR NDVI most closely reproduced yield data and showed the least correlation with changes in equatorial crossing time of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites. One issue raised is the source of the positive trends evident in CASA's NDVI‐based estimates of global NPP. The existence of these trends is consistent with potential stimulation of terrestrial production by factors such as CO2 enrichment, N fertilization, or temperature warming, but the magnitude of the global trends seen is significantly greater than suggested by constraints imposed by atmospheric fluxes