Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Climate change affects technical Systems, Structures and Infrastructures (SSIs), changing the environmental context for which SSI were originally designed. In order to prevent any risk growth beyond acceptable levels, the climate change effects must be accounted for into risk assessment models. Climate models can provide future climate data, such as air temperature and pressure. However, the reliability of climate models is a major concern due to the uncertainty in the temperature and pressure future projections. In this work, we consider five climate change models (individually unable to accurately provide historical recorded temperatures and, thus, also future projections), and ensemble their projections for integration in a probabilistic safety assessment, conditional on climate projections. As case study, we consider the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of two AP1000 Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Results provided by the different ensembles are compared. Finally, a risk-based classification approach is performed to identify critical future temperatures, which may lead to PCCS risks beyond acceptable levels

Children's exposure to second hand smoke at home : a cross-sectional study in Portugal

Second-hand tobacco smoke (SHS) is a major indoor pollutant that causes serious health problems for all exposed, especially children. Children are often exposed to SHS at home, due to parental or other households’ or guests’ smoking. This study describes Portuguese children's exposure to SHS at home (total and by Portuguese main regions). In 2010/2011, a questionnaire was applied to a sample of Portuguese children in the 4th grade (N = 3187, mean age 9.05 ± 0.7 years, 51.1% male). Descriptive analysis, chi-square tests and crude odds ratios were performed. Of the participants, 62.9% of those with smoking parents and 19.2% of those with non-smoking parents were exposed to SHS at their home. Parental smoking varied significantly among regions and was significantly associated with children's exposure to SHS at home. Children's exposure to SHS at home was high, especially if their parents smoke. Children living in Lisbon Region presented the highest SHS exposure rate. The association of SHS exposure with geographic regions suggests the influence of social and contextual factors on smoking behaviour and on tobacco control effectiveness. Our findings highlight the need to effectively prevent children's SHS exposure at their home and to develop tailored tobacco control measures by region.This work was supported by FEDER through the Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade - COMPETE (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009117), and by FCT - Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (Ref. PTDC/CPE-CED/098281/2008)

The role of government co-investment funds in the supply of entrepreneurial finance: An assessment of the early operation of the UK Angel Co-investment Fund

Co-investment funds – which invest alongside private investors, especially business angels – thereby leveraging their networks and experience and minimizing public sector transaction costs – are a recent approach by governments in various countries to address the early stage entrepreneurial funding gap which is perceived as a barrier to the ability of firms to scale-up. However, little literature exists on their operation, impact and effectiveness. This paper assesses the early operation of the UK’s Angel Co-investment Fund, established in 2011. Interview evidence from angels and business managers suggests that the Angel Co-investment Fund is improving the availability of finance by enabling firms to raise funding rounds of between £500,000 and £2 m, hence addressing some aspects of the broken finance escalator model. However, our evidence suggests that it is not yet impacting the supply side, either in terms of stimulating the formation of new angel groups or enhancing learning amongst less experienced angels. Some aspects of the operation of the investment process have attracted criticism from angels and entrepreneurs which need to be addressed. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence for positive impact to justify the scheme’s expansion

Current european regulatory perspectives on insulin analogues

Insulin analogues are increasingly considered as an alternative to human insulin in the therapy of diabetes mellitus. Insulin analogues (IAs) are chemically different from human insulin and may have different pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic properties. The significance of the modifications of the insulin molecule for the safety profile of IAs must be considered. This review describes the regulatory procedure and the expectations for the scientific content of European marketing authorization applications for innovative IAs submitted to the European Medicines Agency. Particular consideration is given to a potential cancer hazard. Specific regulatory guidance on how to address a possible carcinogenic or tumor promoting effect of innovative IAs in non-clinical studies is available. After marketing authorization, the factual access of patients to the new product will be determined to great extent by health technology assessment bodies, reimbursement decisions and the price. Whereas the marketing authorization is a European decision, pricing and reimbursement are national or regional responsibilities. The assessment of benefit and risk by the European Medicines Agency is expected to influence future decisions on price and reimbursement on a national or regional level. Collaborations between regulatory agencies and health technology assessment bodies have been initiated on European and national level to facilitate the use of the European Medicines Agency's benefit risk assessment as basis on which to build the subsequent health technology assessment. The option for combined or joint scientific advice procedures with regulators and health technology assessment bodies on European level or on a national level in several European Member States may help applicants to optimize their development program and dossier preparation in regard of both European marketing authorization application and reimbursement decisions

Evaluation of Bovine Feces-Associated Microbial Source Tracking Markers and Their Correlations with Fecal Indicators and Zoonotic Pathogens in a Brisbane, Australia, Reservoir

This study was aimed at evaluating the host specificity and host sensitivity of two bovine feces-associated bacterial (BacCow-UCD and cowM3) and one viral {left open bracket}bovine adenovirus (B-AVs){right open bracket} microbial source tracking (MST) markers by screening 130 fecal and wastewater samples from 10 target and nontarget host groups in southeast Queensland, Australia. In addition, 36 water samples were collected from a reservoir and tested for the occurrence of all three bovine feces-associated markers along with fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157, and Salmonella spp. The overall host specificity values of the BacCow-UCD, cowM3, and B-AVs markers to differentiate between bovine and other nontarget host groups were 0.66, 0.88, and 1.00, respectively (maximum value of 1.00). The overall host sensitivity values of these markers, however, in composite bovine wastewater and individual bovine fecal DNA samples were 0.93, 0.90, and 0.60, respectively (maximum value of 1.00). Among the 36 water samples tested, 56%, 22%, and 6% samples were PCR positive for the BacCow-UCD, cowM3, and B-AVs markers, respectively. Among the 36 samples tested, 50% and 14% samples were PCR positive for the Campylobacter 16S rRNA and E. coli O157 rfbE genes, respectively. Based on the results, we recommend that multiple bovine feces-associated markers be used if possible for bovine fecal pollution tracking. Nonetheless, the presence of the multiple bovine feces-associated markers along with the presence of potential zoonotic pathogens indicates bovine fecal pollution in the reservoir water samples. Further research is required to understand the decay rates of these markers in relation to FIB and zoonotic pathogens

Heat stress responses and population genetics of the kelp Laminaria digitata (Phaeophyceae) across latitudes reveal differentiation among North Atlantic populations

To understand the thermal plasticity of a coastal foundation species across its latitudinal distribution, we assess physiological responses to high temperature stress in the kelp Laminaria digitata in combination with population genetic characteristics and relate heat resilience to genetic features and phylogeography. We hypothesize that populations from Arctic and cold-temperate locations are less heat resilient than populations from warm distributional edges. Using meristems of natural L. digitata populations from six locations ranging between Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen (79°N), and Quiberon, France (47°N), we performed a common-garden heat stress experiment applying 15°C to 23°C over eight days. We assessed growth, photosynthetic quantum yield, carbon and nitrogen storage, and xanthophyll pigment contents as response traits. Population connectivity and genetic diversity were analyzed with microsatellite markers. Results from the heat stress experiment suggest that the upper temperature limit of L. digitata is nearly identical across its distribution range, but subtle differences in growth and stress responses were revealed for three populations from the species' ecological range margins. Two populations at the species' warm distribution limit showed higher temperature tolerance compared to other populations in growth at 19°C and recovery from 21°C (Quiberon, France), and photosynthetic quantum yield and xanthophyll pigment responses at 23°C (Helgoland, Germany). In L. digitata from the northernmost population (Spitsbergen, Norway), quantum yield indicated the highest heat sensitivity. Microsatellite genotyping revealed all sampled populations to be genetically distinct, with a strong hierarchical structure between southern and northern clades. Genetic diversity was lowest in the isolated population of the North Sea island of Helgoland and highest in Roscoff in the English Channel. All together, these results support the hypothesis of moderate local differentiation across L. digitata's European distribution, whereas effects are likely too weak to ameliorate the species' capacity to withstand ocean warming and marine heatwaves at the southern range edge.Foundation for Science and Technology: UIDB/04326/2020/ PTDC/MAR-EST/6053/2014/ Biodiversa/0004/2015info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when estimates of long-term survival effects are required, as is often the case for health technology assessment decision making. We present a simulation study designed to investigate applications of the RPSFTM and TSE with and without re-censoring, to determine whether re-censoring should always be recommended within adjustment analyses. We investigate a context where switching is from the control group onto the experimental treatment in scenarios with varying switch proportions, treatment effect sizes and time-dependencies, disease severity and switcher prognosis. Methods were assessed according to their estimation of control group restricted mean survival (that would be observed in the absence of switching) at the end of the simulated trial follow-up. We found that RPSFTM and TSE analyses which incorporated re-censoring usually produced negative bias (i.e. under-estimating control group restricted mean survival and therefore over-estimating the treatment effect). RPSFTM and TSE analyses that did not incorporate re-censoring consistently produced positive bias (i.e. under-estimating the treatment effect) which was often smaller in magnitude than the bias associated with the re-censored analyses. We believe that analyses should be conducted with and without re-censoring, as this may provide decision makers with useful information on where the true treatment effect is likely to lie. Analyses that incorporate re-censoring should not always represent the default approach when the objective is to estimate long-term survival times and treatment effects on long-term survival

Geochemical detection of carbon dioxide in dilute aquifers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Carbon storage in deep saline reservoirs has the potential to lower the amount of CO₂emitted to the atmosphere and to mitigate global warming. Leakage back to the atmosphere through abandoned wells and along faults would reduce the efficiency of carbon storage, possibly leading to health and ecological hazards at the ground surface, and possibly impacting water quality of near-surface dilute aquifers. We use static equilibrium and reactive transport simulations to test the hypothesis that perturbations in water chemistry associated with a CO₂gas leak into dilute groundwater are important measures for the potential release of CO₂to the atmosphere. Simulation parameters are constrained by groundwater chemistry, flow, and lithology from the High Plains aquifer. The High Plains aquifer is used to represent a typical sedimentary aquifer overlying a deep CO₂storage reservoir. Specifically, we address the relationships between CO₂flux, groundwater flow, detection time and distance. The CO₂flux ranges from 10³to 2 × 10⁶t/yr (0.63 to 1250 t/m²/yr) to assess chemical perturbations resulting from relatively small leaks that may compromise long-term storage, water quality, and surface ecology, and larger leaks characteristic of short-term well failure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the scenarios we studied, our simulations show pH and carbonate chemistry are good indicators for leakage of stored CO₂into an overlying aquifer because elevated CO₂yields a more acid pH than the ambient groundwater. CO₂leakage into a dilute groundwater creates a slightly acid plume that can be detected at some distance from the leak source due to groundwater flow and CO₂buoyancy. pH breakthrough curves demonstrate that CO₂leaks can be easily detected for CO₂flux ≥ 10⁴t/yr within a 15-month time period at a monitoring well screened within a permeable layer 500 m downstream from the vertical gas trace. At lower flux rates, the CO₂dissolves in the aqueous phase in the lower most permeable unit and does not reach the monitoring well. Sustained pumping in a developed aquifer mixes the CO₂-affected water with the ambient water and enhances pH signal for small leaks (10³t/yr) and reduces pH signal for larger leaks (≥ 10⁴t/yr).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The ability to detect CO₂leakage from a storage reservoir to overlying dilute groundwater is dependent on CO₂solubility, leak flux, CO₂buoyancy, and groundwater flow. Our simulations show that the most likely places to detect CO₂are at the base of the confining layer near the water table where CO₂gas accumulates and is transported laterally in all directions, and downstream of the vertical gas trace where groundwater flow is great enough to transport dissolved CO₂laterally. Our simulations show that CO₂may not rise high enough in the aquifer to be detected because aqueous solubility and lateral groundwater transport within the lower aquifer unit exceeds gas pressure build-up and buoyancy needed to drive the CO₂gas upwards.</p