Designing Incentive-Alignment Contracts in a Principal-Agent Setting in the Presence of Real Options

We develop a model of incentive compensation for optimal upgrades supplied by an outsourced Information Technology department. We first consider the problem when the rate of technological development is certain and there are no information asymmetries between the parties. We extend this to allow private information between the principal and an agent acting as an external supplier of information technology upgrades. Based on the model in these simple circumstances, we then model uncertain technological improvements, where improvements evolve as Geometric Brownian motion, and there is benefit to flexibility in the timing of the upgrade. We are aware of contracts, known as "evergreen upgrades", where a principal pays for upgrades at specified intervals. We find little support for such a contract in our model, and the loss of flexibility in the timing of upgrades is puzzling. The Stern-Stewart problem encourages us to consider just such instances, where contracts limit flexibility that it may in the interest of both parties to retain

Studies in the physical chemistry of detonation and related topics

The well-established physical theory of detonation specifies the properties of the infinite plane detonation wave in terms of the thermochemistry of the detonation reaction and the equation of state of the detonation products, (see, for example, Taylor, 1952). Thus physical chemistry has two roles in the discussion of the plane detonation wave, the provision of thermochemical information and the determination of the equation of state. This theory deals however with an ideal case, in which rate processes have no effect; in the real wave, complicated rate processes have to be taken into account. Here again physical chemistry has information to supply in the fields of chemical kinetics and rates of energy transfer. The present thesis deals with contributions to physical chemistry in the fields of thermochemistry, equation of state and intermolecular forces, chemical kinetics and energy transfer.LIST OF PAPERS: (1) The preparation and heats of combustion of some amine nitrates T. L. Cottrell and J. E. Gill, J. Chem. Soc., 1951, 1798. || (2) Binding energies in hydrocarbons || (3) Resonance energies from thermal data T. L. Cottrell and L. E. Sutton, J. Chem. Physics, 1947, 15, 685 (Letter) || (4) Covalency, electrovalency and electronegativity, T. L. Cottrell and L. E. Sutton, Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 1951, 207, 49 || (5)The interpretation of bond properties, T. L. Cottrell and L. E. Sutton, Quart. Rev. Chem. Soc., 1948, 2, 260 || (6) The strengths of chemical bonds T. L. Cottrell, Butterworths, London, 1954, 310 + viii pp. (Book) || (7) Repulsive intermolecular forces, T. L. Cottrell, Discussion of the Faraday Society, 1956, 22, 10 || (8) Electronic kinetic energy in gases at high pressures, T. L. Cottrell, J. Chem. Physics , 1950, 18, 1117 (Letter) || (9) Molecular energy at high pressure, T. L. Cottrell, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1951, 47, 337 || (10) The virial theorem in quantum mechanics, T. L. Cottrell and S. Paterson, Phil. Mag. 1951, (7), t,2, 391 || (11) Approximate wave -functions satisfying the virial theorem, T. L. Cottrell and S. Paterson, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1951, 47, 233 || (12) An equation of state applicable to gases at densities near that of the solid and temperatures far above the critical, T. L. Cottrell and S. Paterson, Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 1952, 213, 214 || (13) The second virial coefficient of gases and mixtures. Part 1 - Carbon dioxide + helium mixtures T. L. Cottrell and R. A. Hamilton, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1956, 52, 156 || (14) The second virial coefficient of gases and mixtures. Part 2 - Mixtures of carbon dioxide with nitrogen, oxîgen,carbon monoxide, argon and hydrogen T. L. Cottrell, R. A Hamilton and R. P. Taubinger, Trans. Faraday 8( 4., 1956, 52, 1310 || (15) The thermal decomposition of nitromethane, T. L. Cottrell, T. E. Graham and T. J. Reid, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1951, 47, 584. || (16) The thermal decomposition of nitroethane and 1- nitropropane T. L. Cottrell, T. E. Graham and T. J. Reid, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1951, 47, 1089 || (17) The kinetics of the oxidation of ethylene by nitrogen dioxide T. L. Cottrell and T. 8. Graham, J. Chem. Soc., 1953, 556 || (18) The kinetics of the oxidation of propylene by nitrogen dioxide T. L. Cottrell and T.: S. Graham, J. Chem. Soc., 1954, 3644 (Note) || (19) Importance of gas spaces in the propagation of detonation of granular explosives T. L. Cottrell, J. G. Gibb, Nature, 1956, 178, 814 || (20) Transition probability in molecular encounters. Part 1 - The evaluation of perturbation integrals T. L. Cottrell and N. Ream, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1955, 51, 159 || (21) Transition probability in molecular encounters. Part 2 - Vibrational relaxation time in methane, T. L. Cottrell and N. Ream, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1955, 51, 1153 || (22) Transition probability in molecular encounters. Part 3 - Experimental values for relaxation time in methane T. L. Cottrell and (Mss) P. F. 'Martin, Trans. Faraday Soc., 1957, 53, 11s

Can We Avoid a Sick Fiscal Future? The Non-Sustainability of Health-Care Spending with an Aging Population

Funding for Canadian public health care has long relied on a “pay-as-you-go” funding model: for the most part, government pays for health costs each year from taxes collected in that fiscal year with effectively nothing put aside for projected rising health-care costs in the future. But the future of Canadian public health care is going to get more expensive as the relatively large cohort of baby boomers reaches retirement age. As they exit the work force, and enter the ages at which Canadians use the health-care system more, a smaller population of younger workers is going to be left paying the growing health-care costs of older Canadians. If Canadians intend to preserve a publicly funded medicare system that offers a similar level of service in the future as it does today, under the pay-as-you-go model, eventually peak taxes for Canadians born after 1988 will end up twice as high as the peak taxes that the oldest baby boomers paid. The “payas-you-go” model has become like a Ponzi scheme, where those who got in early enough make out nicely, while those who arrive late stand to suffer a serious financial blow. This should concern both Canadians who value a comprehensive public health system as well as Canadians who value competitive tax rates: There is no reason to be certain that future taxpayers will blithely accept having their taxes substantially increased to finance health care for another, older generation that did not pay for a significant portion of its own health care. If the burden proves too high for the taxpaying public to accept, that could well jeopardize Canada’s health-care system as we know it. If Canadians intend to preserve their iconic public health system, and are unprepared to unjustly overburden future generations with the tax bill left by their parents and grandparents, provincial governments must make strong and rapid efforts to reform the health system. They must find more cost-efficient ways of managing medicine, including new approaches to eldercare, chronic disease prevention and better health promotion. If policymakers respond in time with a workable strategy and adequate effort, the substantial financial health-care liability currently faced by future generations may not be eliminated entirely, but it can still be reduced dramatically

Seed Invasion Filters and Forest Fire Severity

Forest seed dispersal is altered after fire. Using seed traps, we studied impacts of fire severity on timing of seed dispersal, total seed rain, and seed rain richness in patches of high and low severity fire and unburned Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in the Fischer and Tyee fire complexes in the eastern Washington Cascades. Unburned plots had the lowest average seed production. The high severity fire patches in the Fischer Fire Complex had a higher total seed production than low severity fire patches of the same complex. At the Tyee Fire Complex, the total seed production for each of the two fire severities was similar, but the period of maximum seed dispersal was later for high severity than low severity fire. Seed rain at the Fischer Fire patches (sampled one year after the fire) was predominantly composed of annual species, while that of the Tyee Fire patches (sampled nine years after fire) was predominantly perennial species. Seed rain richness was greater in Tyee high severity patches than paired low severity fire patches. In these paired Tyee patches the average number of new seed species (species not found in the extant plot vegetation) was greater for high severity than low severity fire. Our results suggest that high severity fire plots are more porous to seed rain than low severity plots. Intact forest canopies may filter seed rain and reduce seed influx, while high severity fires are more open to invasion by seed dispersal

TIGA-CUB – manualised psychoanalytic child psychotherapy versus treatment as usual for children aged 5–11 years with treatment-resistant conduct disorders and their primary carers: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends evidence-based parenting programmes as a first-line intervention for conduct disorders (CD) in children aged 5–11 years. As these are not effective in 25–33% of cases, NICE has requested research into second-line interventions. Child and Adolescent Psychotherapists (CAPTs) address highly complex problems where first-line treatments have failed and there have been small-scale studies of Psychoanalytic Child Psychotherapy (PCP) for CD. A feasibility trial is needed to determine whether a confirmatory trial of manualised PCP (mPCP) versus Treatment as Usual (TaU) for CD is practicable or needs refinement. The aim of this paper is to publish the abridged protocol of this feasibility trial. Methods and design: TIGA-CUB (Trial on improving Inter-Generational Attachment for Children Undergoing Behaviour problems) is a two-arm, pragmatic, parallel-group, multicentre, individually randomised (1:1) controlled feasibility trial (target n = 60) with blinded outcome assessment (at 4 and 8 months), which aims to develop an optimum practicable protocol for a confirmatory, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial (RCT) (primary outcome: child’s behaviour; secondary outcomes: parental reflective functioning and mental health, child and parent quality of life), comparing mPCP and TaU as second-line treatments for children aged 5–11 years with treatment-resistant CD and inter-generational attachment difficulties, and for their primary carers. Child-primary carer dyads will be recruited following a referral to, or re-referral within, National Health Service (NHS) Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) after an unsuccessful first-line parenting intervention. PCP will be delivered by qualified CAPTs working in routine NHS clinical practice, using a trial-specific PCP manual (a brief version of established PCP clinical practice). Outcomes are: (1) feasibility of recruitment methods, (2) uptake and follow-up rates, (3) therapeutic delivery, treatment retention and attendance, intervention adherence rates, (4) follow-up data collection, and (5) statistical, health economics, process evaluation, and qualitative outcomes. Discussion: TIGA-CUB will provide important information on the feasibility and potential challenges of undertaking a confirmatory RCT to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of mPCP. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials, ID: ISRCTN86725795. Registered on 31 May 2016

Deconstructing compassionate conservation

Compassionate conservation focuses on 4 tenets: first, do no harm; individuals matter; inclusivity of individual animals; and peaceful coexistence between humans and animals. Recently, compassionate conservation has been promoted as an alternative to conventional conservation philosophy. We believe examples presented by compassionate conservationists are deliberately or arbitrarily chosen to focus on mammals; inherently not compassionate; and offer ineffective conservation solutions. Compassionate conservation arbitrarily focuses on charismatic species, notably large predators and megaherbivores. The philosophy is not compassionate when it leaves invasive predators in the environment to cause harm to vastly more individuals of native species or uses the fear of harm by apex predators to terrorize mesopredators. Hindering the control of exotic species (megafauna, predators) in situ will not improve the conservation condition of the majority of biodiversity. The positions taken by so-called compassionate conservationists on particular species and on conservation actions could be extended to hinder other forms of conservation, including translocations, conservation fencing, and fertility control. Animal welfare is incredibly important to conservation, but ironically compassionate conservation does not offer the best welfare outcomes to animals and is often ineffective in achieving conservation goals. Consequently, compassionate conservation may threaten public and governmental support for conservation because of the limited understanding of conservation problems by the general public

Beyond land cover change: Towards a new generation of Land Use Models

Land use models play an important role in exploring future land change dynamics and are instrumental to support the integration of knowledge in land system science. However, only modest progress has been made in achieving these aims due to insufficient model evaluation and limited representation of the underlying socio-ecological processes. We discuss how land use models can better represent multi-scalar dynamics, human agency and demand-supply relations, and how we can achieve learning from model evaluation. By addressing these issues we outline pathways towards a new generation of land use models that allow not only the assessment of future land cover pattern changes, but also stimulate envisioning future land use by society to support debate on sustainability solutions and help design alternative solutions

Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: Results of a structured expert elicitation

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely typesof potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. Wetake a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 peoplehave been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely thannot (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, thisincreased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked theirplausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majorityidentified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the expertswere more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route tocivil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the variouscauses of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting theimportance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results intheir risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response andrecovery planning

Herpes simplex encephalitis is linked with selective mitochondrial damage; a post-mortem and in vitro study

Herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1) encephalitis (HSE) is the most commonly diagnosed cause of viral encephalitis in western countries. Despite antiviral treatment, HSE remains a devastating disease with high morbidity and mortality. Improved understanding of pathogenesis may lead to more effective therapies. Mitochondrial damage has been reported during HSV infection in vitro. However, whether it occurs in the human brain and whether this contributes to the pathogenesis has not been fully explored. Minocycline, an antibiotic, has been reported to protect mitochondria and limit brain damage. Minocycline has not been studied in HSV infection. In the first genome-wide transcriptomic study of post-mortem human HSE brain tissue, we demonstrated a highly preferential reduction in mitochondrial genome (MtDNA) encoded transcripts in HSE cases (n = 3) compared to controls (n = 5). Brain tissue exhibited a significant inverse correlation for immunostaining between cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1), a MtDNA encoded enzyme subunit, and HSV-1; with lower abundance for mitochondrial protein in regions where HSV-1 was abundant. Preferential loss of mitochondrial function, among MtDNA encoded components, was confirmed using an in vitro primary human astrocyte HSV-1 infection model. Dysfunction of cytochrome c oxidase (CO), a mitochondrial enzyme composed predominantly of MtDNA encoded subunits, preceded that of succinate dehydrogenase (composed entirely of nuclear encoded subunits). Minocycline treated astrocytes exhibited higher CO1 transcript abundance, sustained CO activity and cell viability compared to non-treated astrocytes. Based on observations from HSE patient tissue, this study highlights mitochondrial damage as a critical and early event during HSV-1 infection. We demonstrate minocycline preserves mitochondrial function and cell viability during HSV-1 infection. Minocycline, and mitochondrial protection, offers a novel adjunctive therapeutic approach for limiting brain cell damage and potentially improving outcome among HSE patients