Prediction of Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression on Inpatient Wards Using Continuous Capnography and Oximetry: An International Prospective, Observational Trial

Background: Opioid-related adverse events are a serious problem in hospitalized patients. Little is known about patients who are likely to experience opioid-induced respiratory depression events on the general care floor and may benefit from improved monitoring and early intervention. The trial objective was to derive and validate a risk prediction tool for respiratory depression in patients receiving opioids, as detected by continuous pulse oximetry and capnography monitoring. Methods: PRediction of Opioid-induced respiratory Depression In patients monitored by capnoGraphY (PRODIGY) was a prospective, observational trial of blinded continuous capnography and oximetry conducted at 16 sites in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Vital signs were intermittently monitored per standard of care. A total of 1335 patients receiving parenteral opioids and continuously monitored on the general care floor were included in the analysis. A respiratory depression episode was defined as respiratory rate ≤5 breaths/min (bpm), oxygen saturation ≤85%, or end-tidal carbon dioxide ≤15 or ≥60 mm Hg for ≥3 minutes; apnea episode lasting >30 seconds; or any respiratory opioid-related adverse event. A risk prediction tool was derived using a multivariable logistic regression model of 46 a priori defined risk factors with stepwise selection and was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: One or more respiratory depression episodes were detected in 614 (46%) of 1335 general care floor patients (43% male; mean age, 58 ± 14 years) continuously monitored for a median of 24 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 17-26). A multivariable respiratory depression prediction model with area under the curve of 0.740 was developed using 5 independent variables: age ≥60 (in decades), sex, opioid naivety, sleep disorders, and chronic heart failure. The PRODIGY risk prediction tool showed significant separation between patients with and without respiratory depression (P < .001) and an odds ratio of 6.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.44-8.30; P < .001) between the high- and low-risk groups. Compared to patients without respiratory depression episodes, mean hospital length of stay was 3 days longer in patients with ≥1 respiratory depression episode (10.5 ± 10.8 vs 7.7 ± 7.8 days; P < .0001) identified using continuous oximetry and capnography monitoring. Conclusions: A PRODIGY risk prediction model, derived from continuous oximetry and capnography, accurately predicts respiratory depression episodes in patients receiving opioids on the general care floor. Implementation of the PRODIGY score to determine the need for continuous monitoring may be a first step to reduce the incidence and consequences of respiratory compromise in patients receiving opioids on the general care floor

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems$^{1,2}$. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain$^{1,3}$, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change$^{3,4}$. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss$^{5–7}$. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways$^{4,6,8–11}$, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes$^{12,13}$. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved$^{7,14,15}$. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate

Reply to: Contribution of carbon inputs to soil carbon accumulation cannot be neglected

In the accompanying Comment1, He et al. argue that the determinant role of microbial carbon use efficiency in global soil organic carbon (SOC) storage shown in Tao et al. (2023)2 was overestimated because carbon inputs were neglected in our data analysis while they suggest that our model-based analysis could be biased and model-dependent. Their argument is based on a different choice of independent variables in the data analysis and a sensitivity analysis of two process-based models other than that used in our study. We agree that both carbon inputs and outputs (as mediated by microbial processes) matter when predicting SOC storage – the question is their relative contributions. While we encourage further studies to examine how the evaluation of the relative importance of CUE to global SOC storage may vary with different model structures, He et al.’s claims about Tao et al. (2023) need to be taken as an alternative, unproven hypothesis until empirical data support their specific parameterization. Here we show that an additional literature assessment of global data does not support He et al.’s argument, in contrast to our study, and that further study on this topic is essential

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Funding Information: We thank H. Yang, M. Schrumpf, T. Wutzler, R. Zheng and H. Ma for their comments and suggestions on this study. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42125503) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0608000, 2020YFA0607900 and 2021YFC3101600). F.T. was financially supported by China Scholarship Council during his visit at Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (201906210489) and the Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (202006210289). The contributions of Y.L. were supported through US National Science Foundation DEB 1655499 and 2242034, subcontract CW39470 from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to Cornell University, DOE De-SC0023514, and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. S.M. has received funding from the ERC under the European Union’s H2020 Research and Innovation Programme (101001608). The contributions of U.M. were supported through a US Department of Energy grant to the Sandia National Laboratories, which is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the US Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525. We thank the WoSIS database ( https://www.isric.org/explore/wosis ) for providing the publicly available global-scale SOC database used in this study. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Reply to: Beyond microbial carbon use efficiency

In their commentary, Xiao et al. cautioned that the conclusions on the critical role of microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) in global soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in a paper by Tao et al. (2023) might be too simplistic. They claimed that Tao et al.’s study lacked mechanistic consideration of SOC formation and excluded important datasets. Xiao et al. brought up important points, which can be largely reconciled with our findings by understanding the differences in expressing processes in empirical studies and in models

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

AI-based dimensional neuroimaging system for characterizing heterogeneity in brain structure and function in major depressive disorder:COORDINATE-MDD consortium design and rationale

BACKGROUND: Efforts to develop neuroimaging-based biomarkers in major depressive disorder (MDD), at the individual level, have been limited to date. As diagnostic criteria are currently symptom-based, MDD is conceptualized as a disorder rather than a disease with a known etiology; further, neural measures are often confounded by medication status and heterogeneous symptom states. METHODS: We describe a consortium to quantify neuroanatomical and neurofunctional heterogeneity via the dimensions of novel multivariate coordinate system (COORDINATE-MDD). Utilizing imaging harmonization and machine learning methods in a large cohort of medication-free, deeply phenotyped MDD participants, patterns of brain alteration are defined in replicable and neurobiologically-based dimensions and offer the potential to predict treatment response at the individual level. International datasets are being shared from multi-ethnic community populations, first episode and recurrent MDD, which are medication-free, in a current depressive episode with prospective longitudinal treatment outcomes and in remission. Neuroimaging data consist of de-identified, individual, structural MRI and resting-state functional MRI with additional positron emission tomography (PET) data at specific sites. State-of-the-art analytic methods include automated image processing for extraction of anatomical and functional imaging variables, statistical harmonization of imaging variables to account for site and scanner variations, and semi-supervised machine learning methods that identify dominant patterns associated with MDD from neural structure and function in healthy participants. RESULTS: We are applying an iterative process by defining the neural dimensions that characterise deeply phenotyped samples and then testing the dimensions in novel samples to assess specificity and reliability. Crucially, we aim to use machine learning methods to identify novel predictors of treatment response based on prospective longitudinal treatment outcome data, and we can externally validate the dimensions in fully independent sites. CONCLUSION: We describe the consortium, imaging protocols and analytics using preliminary results. Our findings thus far demonstrate how datasets across many sites can be harmonized and constructively pooled to enable execution of this large-scale project

Prediction of Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression on Inpatient Wards Using Continuous Capnography and Oximetry: An International Prospective, Observational Trial.

BACKGROUND: Opioid-related adverse events are a serious problem in hospitalized patients. Little is known about patients who are likely to experience opioid-induced respiratory depression events on the general care floor and may benefit from improved monitoring and early intervention. The trial objective was to derive and validate a risk prediction tool for respiratory depression in patients receiving opioids, as detected by continuous pulse oximetry and capnography monitoring. METHODS: PRediction of Opioid-induced respiratory Depression In patients monitored by capnoGraphY (PRODIGY) was a prospective, observational trial of blinded continuous capnography and oximetry conducted at 16 sites in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Vital signs were intermittently monitored per standard of care. A total of 1335 patients receiving parenteral opioids and continuously monitored on the general care floor were included in the analysis. A respiratory depression episode was defined as respiratory rate ≤5 breaths/min (bpm), oxygen saturation ≤85%, or end-tidal carbon dioxide ≤15 or ≥60 mm Hg for ≥3 minutes; apnea episode lasting \u3e30 seconds; or any respiratory opioid-related adverse event. A risk prediction tool was derived using a multivariable logistic regression model of 46 a priori defined risk factors with stepwise selection and was internally validated by bootstrapping. RESULTS: One or more respiratory depression episodes were detected in 614 (46%) of 1335 general care floor patients (43% male; mean age, 58 ± 14 years) continuously monitored for a median of 24 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 17-26). A multivariable respiratory depression prediction model with area under the curve of 0.740 was developed using 5 independent variables: age ≥60 (in decades), sex, opioid naivety, sleep disorders, and chronic heart failure. The PRODIGY risk prediction tool showed significant separation between patients with and without respiratory depression (P \u3c .001) and an odds ratio of 6.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.44-8.30; P \u3c .001) between the high- and low-risk groups. Compared to patients without respiratory depression episodes, mean hospital length of stay was 3 days longer in patients with ≥1 respiratory depression episode (10.5 ± 10.8 vs 7.7 ± 7.8 days; P \u3c .0001) identified using continuous oximetry and capnography monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: A PRODIGY risk prediction model, derived from continuous oximetry and capnography, accurately predicts respiratory depression episodes in patients receiving opioids on the general care floor. Implementation of the PRODIGY score to determine the need for continuous monitoring may be a first step to reduce the incidence and consequences of respiratory compromise in patients receiving opioids on the general care floor

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention