Men’s Condom Use in Higher-Risk Sex: Trends and Determinants in Five Sub-Saharan Countries

This paper examines men’s condom use at last higher-risk sex (i.e., nonmarital, noncohabiting partner) in five sub-Saharan countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia. The two most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in each country are analyzed to show trends in various indicators. Condom use is an important way to prevent the transmission of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Encouragingly, use of condoms has increased substantially in Burkina Faso, Cameroon,and Tanzania, with smaller increases in Kenya and Zambia. At the same time, levels of higher-risk sex have declined in four of the five countries, although use of a condom at last higher-risk sex remains below 50 percent in Kenya and Zambia. Multivariate analysis shows that higher education is a consistently strong, positive predictor of condom use at last higher-risk sex, whereas higher wealth status is not significant in most surveys. Knowledge that use of condoms can reduce the risk of HIV transmission is a consistently strong, positive predictor of condom use, but urban-rural residence and region are significant only in some surveys. Comparing the two most recent DHS surveys in each of the five countries, there are no clear patterns of change in the predictive strength of explanatory variables. However, there is evidence of widening gaps in condom use by level of education in Cameroon and by urban-rural residence in Kenya. One important policy finding that emerged from this study is that low wealth status is not a barrier to condom use in most countries, but lack of education is.\u

Morbidity

This chapter of Beginning Population Studies (3rd edition) discusses the morbidity from a demographic perspective. There are separate chapters on Epidemics and on Mortality

Faltering mortality improvements at young-middle ages in high-income English-speaking countries.

Background Before the COVID-19 pandemic, stagnating life expectancy trends were reported in some high-income countries (HICs). Despite previous evidence from country-specific studies, there is a lack of comparative research that provides a broader perspective and challenges existing assumptions. This study aims to examine longevity trends and patterns in six English-speaking countries (Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States) by combining period and cohort perspectives and to compare them with other HICs. Methods Using data from the Human Mortality and World Health Organization Mortality Databases, we estimated partial life expectancy, lifespan inequality and cohort survival differences for 1970-2021, as well as the contribution of causes of death to the gap in life expectancy between English-speaking countries and the average for other HICs in 2017-19. Results In the pre-pandemic period, the increase in life expectancy slowed in all English-speaking countries, except Ireland, mainly due to stagnating or rising mortality at young-middle ages. Relative to other HICs, those born in Anglophone countries since the 1970s experienced relative survival disadvantage, largely attributable to injuries (mainly suicides) and substance-related mortality (mainly poisonings). In contrast, older cohorts enjoyed advantages for females in Australia and Canada and for males in all English-speaking countries except the United States. Conclusions Although future gains in life expectancy in wealthy societies will increasingly depend on reducing mortality at older ages, adverse health trends at younger ages are a cause for concern. This emerging and avoidable threat to health equity in English-speaking countries should be the focus of further research and policy action

The At Home/Chez Soi trial protocol: a pragmatic, multi-site, randomised controlled trial of a Housing First intervention for homeless individuals with mental illness in five Canadian cities

This article was published in BMJ Open following peer review and can also be viewed on the journal’s website at http://bmjopen.bmj.comIntroduction: Housing First is a complex housing and support intervention for homeless individuals with mental health problems. It has a sufficient knowledge base and interest to warrant a test of wide-scale implementation in various settings. This protocol describes the quantitative design of a Canadian five city, $110 million demonstration project and provides the rationale for key scientific decisions. Methods: A pragmatic, mixed methods, multi-site field trial of the effectiveness of Housing First in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Moncton, is randomising approximately 2500 participants, stratified by high and moderate need levels, into intervention and treatment as usual groups. Quantitative outcome measures are being collected over a 2-year period and a qualitative process evaluation is being completed. Primary outcomes are housing stability, social functioning and, for the economic analyses, quality of life. Hierarchical linear modelling is the primary data analytic strategy. Ethics and dissemination: Research ethics board approval has been obtained from 11 institutions and a safety and adverse events committee is in place. The results of the multi-site analyses of outcomes at 12 months and 2 years will be reported in a series of core scientific journal papers. Extensive knowledge exchange activities with non-academic audiences will occur throughout the duration of the project.This work was supported by a contract from Health Canada administrated by the Mental Health Commission of Canada

Where there is no hospital: improving the notification of community deaths

Globally, an estimated two-thirds of all deaths occur in the community, the majority of which are not attended by a physician and remain unregistered. Identifying and registering these deaths in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, and ascertaining the cause of death, is thus a critical challenge to ensure that policy benefits from reliable evidence on mortality levels and patterns in populations. In contrast to traditional processes for registration, death notification can be faster and more efficient at informing responsible government agencies about the event and at triggering a verbal autopsy for ascertaining cause of death. Thus, innovative approaches to death notification, tailored to suit the setting, can improve the availability and quality of information on community deaths in CRVS systems.; Here, we present case studies in four countries (Bangladesh, Colombia, Myanmar and Papua New Guinea) that were part of the initial phases of the Bloomberg Data for Health Initiative at the University of Melbourne, each of which faces unique challenges to community death registration. The approaches taken promote improved notification of community deaths through a combination of interventions, including integration with the health sector, using various notifying agents and methods, and the application of information and communication technologies. One key factor for success has been the smoothing of processes linking notification, registration and initiation of a verbal autopsy interview. The processes implemented champion more active notification systems in relation to the passive systems commonly in place in these countries.; The case studies demonstrate the significant potential for improving death reporting through the implementation of notification practices tailored to a country's specific circumstances, including geography, cultural factors, structure of the existing CRVS system, and available human, information and communication technology resources. Strategic deployment of some, or all, of these innovations can result in rapid improvements to death notification systems and should be trialled in other settings

Mortality surveillance and verbal autopsy strategies: experiences, challenges and lessons learnt in Papua New Guinea.

Full notification of deaths and compilation of good quality cause of death data are core, sequential and essential components of a functional civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system. In collaboration with the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), trial mortality surveillance activities were established at sites in Alotau District in Milne Bay Province, Tambul-Nebilyer District in Western Highlands Province and Talasea District in West New Britain Province.Provincial Health Authorities trialled strategies to improve completeness of death notification and implement an automated verbal autopsy methodology, including use of different notification agents and paper or mobile phone methods. Completeness of death notification improved from virtually 0% to 20% in Talasea, 25% and 75% using mobile phone and paper notification strategies, respectively, in Alotau, and 69% in Tambul-Nebilyer. We discuss the challenges and lessons learnt with implementing these activities in PNG, including logistical considerations and incentives.Our experience indicates that strategies to maximise completeness of notification should be tailored to the local context, which in PNG includes significant geographical, cultural and political diversity. We report that health workers have great potential to improve the CRVS programme in PNG through managing the collection of notification and verbal autopsy data. In light of our findings, and in consultation with the main government CRVS stakeholders and the National CRVS Committee, we make recommendations regarding the requirements at each level of the health system to optimise mortality surveillance in order to generate the essential health intelligence required for policy and planning

Diversity of epidemiological transition in the Pacific: Findings from the application of verbal autopsy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Cause of death data are essential for rational health planning yet are not routinely available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Indirect estimation of cause of death patterns suggests these populations are epidemiologically similar, but such assessments are not based on direct evidence. METHODS: Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted at three sites in PNG and nationwide in Solomon Islands. Training courses were also facilitated to improve data from medical certificates of cause of death (MCCODs) in both countries. Data were categorised into broad groups of endemic and emerging conditions to aid assessment of the epidemiological transition. FINDINGS: Between 2017 and 2020, VAs were collected for 1,814 adult deaths in PNG and 819 adult deaths in Solomon Islands. MCCODs were analysed for 662 deaths in PNG and 1,408 deaths in Solomon Islands. The VA data suggest lower NCD mortality (48.8% versus 70.3%); higher infectious mortality (27.0% versus 18.3%) and higher injury mortality (24.5% versus 11.4%) in PNG compared to Solomon Islands. Higher infectious mortality in PNG was evident for both endemic and emerging infections. Higher NCD mortality in Solomon Islands reflected much higher emerging NCDs (43.6% vs 21.4% in PNG). A similar pattern was evident from the MCCOD data. INTERPRETATION: The cause of death patterns suggested by VA and MCCOD indicate that PNG is earlier in its epidemiological transition than Solomon Islands, with relatively higher infectious mortality and lower NCD mortality. Injury mortality was also particularly high in PNG.This study was funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies

Mineral and organic fertilization alters the microbiome of a soil nematode Dorylaimus stagnalis and its resistome

Although the effects of fertilization on the abundance and diversity of soil nematodes have been widely studied, the impact of fertilization on soil nematode microbiomes remains largely unknown. Here, we investigated how different fertilizers: no fertilizer, mineral fertilizer, clean slurry (pig manure with a reduced antibiotic burden) and dirty slurry (pig manure with antibiotics) affect the microbiome of a dominant soil nematode and its associated antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). The results of 16S rRNA gene high throughput sequencing showed that the microbiome of the soil nematode Dorylaimus stagnalis is diverse (Shannon index: 9.95) and dominated by Proteobacteria (40.3%). Application of mineral fertilizers significantly reduced the diversity of the nematode microbiome (by 28.2%; P < 0.05) but increased the abundance of Proteobacteria (by 70.1%; P = 0.001). Microbial community analysis, using a null hypothesis model, indicated that microbiomes associated with the nematode are not neutrally assembled. Organic fertilizers also altered the diversity of the nematode microbiome, but had no impact on its composition as illustrated by principal coordinates analysis (PCoA). Interestingly, although no change of total ARGs was observed in the nematode microbiome and no significant relationship existed between nematode microbiome and resistome, the abundance of 48 out of a total of 75 ARGs was enriched in the organic fertilizer treatments. Thus, the data suggests that ARGs in the nematode microbiome still had a risk of horizontal gene transfer under fertilization and nematodes might be a potential refuge for ARGs

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.<br/

Genetic Studies of Leptin Concentrations Implicate Leptin in the Regulation of Early Adiposity.

Leptin influences food intake by informing the brain about the status of body fat stores. Rare LEP mutations associated with congenital leptin deficiency cause severe early-onset obesity that can be mitigated by administering leptin. However, the role of genetic regulation of leptin in polygenic obesity remains poorly understood. We performed an exome-based analysis in up to 57,232 individuals of diverse ancestries to identify genetic variants that influence adiposity-adjusted leptin concentrations. We identify five novel variants, including four missense variants, in LEP, ZNF800, KLHL31, and ACTL9, and one intergenic variant near KLF14. The missense variant Val94Met (rs17151919) in LEP was common in individuals of African ancestry only, and its association with lower leptin concentrations was specific to this ancestry (P = 2 × 10-16, n = 3,901). Using in vitro analyses, we show that the Met94 allele decreases leptin secretion. We also show that the Met94 allele is associated with higher BMI in young African-ancestry children but not in adults, suggesting that leptin regulates early adiposity