Optimal customer customer selection for cross-selling of financial services products

A new methodology, for optimal customer selection in cross-selling of financial services products, such as mortgage loans and non life insurance contracts, is presented. The optimal cross-sales selection of prospects is such that the expected profit is maximized, while at the same time the risk of suffering future losses is minimized. Expected profit maximization and mean–variance optimization are considered as alternative optimality criteria. In order to solve these optimality problems a stochastic model of the profit, expected to emerge from a single cross-sales prospect and from a selection of prospects, is developed. The related probability distributions of the profit are derived, both for small and large portfolio sizes and in the latter case, asymptotic normality is established. The proposed, profit optimization methodology is thoroughly tested, based on a real data set from a large Swedish insurance company and is shown to achieve considerable profit gains, compared to traditional cross-selling methods, which use only the estimated sales probabilities

Exposure to risk and zero accident claims in automobile insurance

Prospective customers of financial and insurance products can be targeted based on the profit the provider expects to earn from them. We present a model for individual expected profit and two alternatives for calculating optimal personalized prices that maximize the expected profit. For one of these alternatives, we obtain a closed-form expression for the price offered to each prospective customer; for the other, we need to use a numerical approximation. In both approaches, the profits generated by prospective customers are not immediately observed, given that the products sold by these companies have a risk component. We assume that willingness to pay is heterogeneous and apply our methodology using real data from a European insurance company. Our study indicates that a substantial boost in profits can be expected when applying the simplest optimal pricing method proposed

Calcium puffs are generic InsP₃-activated elementary calcium signals and are downregulated by prolonged hormonal stimulation to inhibit cellular calcium responses

Elementary Ca2+ signals, such as "Ca2+ puffs", which arise from the activation of inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors, are building blocks for local and global Ca2+ signalling. We characterized Ca2+ puffs in six cell types that expressed differing ratios of the three inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptor isoforms. The amplitudes, spatial spreads and kinetics of the events were similar in each of the cell types. The resemblance of Ca2+ puffs in these cell types suggests that they are a generic elementary Ca2+ signal and, furthermore, that the different inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate isoforms are functionally redundant at the level of subcellular Ca2+ signalling. Hormonal stimulation of SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells and HeLa cells for several hours downregulated inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate expression and concomitantly altered the properties of the Ca2+ puffs. The amplitude and duration of Ca2+ puffs were substantially reduced. In addition, the number of Ca2+ puff sites active during the onset of a Ca2+ wave declined. The consequence of the changes in Ca2+ puff properties was that cells displayed a lower propensity to trigger regenerative Ca2+ waves. Therefore, Ca2+ puffs underlie inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate signalling in diverse cell types and are focal points for regulation of cellular responses

Nutritional Control of DNA Replication Initiation through the Proteolysis and Regulated Translation of DnaA

Bacteria can arrest their own growth and proliferation upon nutrient depletion and under various stressful conditions to ensure their survival. However, the molecular mechanisms responsible for suppressing growth and arresting the cell cycle under such conditions remain incompletely understood. Here, we identify post-transcriptional mechanisms that help enforce a cell-cycle arrest in Caulobacter crescentus following nutrient limitation and during entry into stationary phase by limiting the accumulation of DnaA, the conserved replication initiator protein. DnaA is rapidly degraded by the Lon protease following nutrient limitation. However, the rate of DnaA degradation is not significantly altered by changes in nutrient availability. Instead, we demonstrate that decreased nutrient availability downregulates dnaA translation by a mechanism involving the 5' untranslated leader region of the dnaA transcript; Lon-dependent proteolysis of DnaA then outpaces synthesis, leading to the elimination of DnaA and the arrest of DNA replication. Our results demonstrate how regulated translation and constitutive degradation provide cells a means of precisely and rapidly modulating the concentration of key regulatory proteins in response to environmental inputs.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant 5R01GM082899

Implications For The Origin Of GRB 051103 From LIGO Observations

We present the results of a LIGO search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with GRB 051103, a short-duration hard-spectrum gamma-ray burst (GRB) whose electromagnetically determined sky position is coincident with the spiral galaxy M81, which is 3.6 Mpc from Earth. Possible progenitors for short-hard GRBs include compact object mergers and soft gamma repeater (SGR) giant flares. A merger progenitor would produce a characteristic GW signal that should be detectable at the distance of M81, while GW emission from an SGR is not expected to be detectable at that distance. We found no evidence of a GW signal associated with GRB 051103. Assuming weakly beamed gamma-ray emission with a jet semi-angle of 30 deg we exclude a binary neutron star merger in M81 as the progenitor with a confidence of 98%. Neutron star-black hole mergers are excluded with > 99% confidence. If the event occurred in M81 our findings support the the hypothesis that GRB 051103 was due to an SGR giant flare, making it the most distant extragalactic magnetar observed to date.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures. For a repository of data used in the publication, go to: https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=15166 . Also see the announcement for this paper on ligo.org at: http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-GRB051103/index.ph

Search for Gravitational Wave Bursts from Six Magnetars

Soft gamma repeaters (SGRs) and anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) are thought to be magnetars: neutron stars powered by extreme magnetic fields. These rare objects are characterized by repeated and sometimes spectacular gamma-ray bursts. The burst mechanism might involve crustal fractures and excitation of non-radial modes which would emit gravitational waves (GWs). We present the results of a search for GW bursts from six galactic magnetars that is sensitive to neutron star f-modes, thought to be the most efficient GW emitting oscillatory modes in compact stars. One of them, SGR 0501+4516, is likely similar to 1 kpc from Earth, an order of magnitude closer than magnetars targeted in previous GW searches. A second, AXP 1E 1547.0-5408, gave a burst with an estimated isotropic energy >10(44) erg which is comparable to the giant flares. We find no evidence of GWs associated with a sample of 1279 electromagnetic triggers from six magnetars occurring between 2006 November and 2009 June, in GW data from the LIGO, Virgo, and GEO600 detectors. Our lowest model-dependent GW emission energy upper limits for band-and time-limited white noise bursts in the detector sensitive band, and for f-mode ringdowns (at 1090 Hz), are 3.0 x 10(44)d(1)(2) erg and 1.4 x 10(47)d(1)(2) erg, respectively, where d(1) = d(0501)/1 kpc and d(0501) is the distance to SGR 0501+4516. These limits on GW emission from f-modes are an order of magnitude lower than any previous, and approach the range of electromagnetic energies seen in SGR giant flares for the first time.United States National Science FoundationScience and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomMax-Planck-SocietyState of Niedersachsen/GermanyItalian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica NucleareFrench Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueAustralian Research CouncilCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research of IndiaIstituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare of ItalySpanish Ministerio de Educacion y CienciaConselleria d'Economia Hisenda i Innovacio of the Govern de les Illes BalearsFoundation for Fundamental Research on Matter supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific ResearchPolish Ministry of Science and Higher EducationFoundation for Polish ScienceRoyal SocietyScottish Funding CouncilScottish Universities Physics AllianceNational Aeronautics and Space Administration NNH07ZDA001-GLASTCarnegie TrustLeverhulme TrustDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationResearch CorporationAlfred P. Sloan FoundationRussian Space AgencyRFBR 09-02-00166aIPN JPL Y503559 (Odyssey), NASA NNG06GH00G, NASA NNX07AM42G, NASA NNX08AC89G (INTEGRAL), NASA NNG06GI896, NASA NNX07AJ65G, NASA NNX08AN23G (Swift), NASA NNX07AR71G (MESSENGER), NASA NNX06AI36G, NASA NNX08AB84G, NASA NNX08AZ85G (Suzaku), NASA NNX09AU03G (Fermi)Astronom

Search for gravitational waves associated with the InterPlanetary Network short gamma ray bursts

We outline the scientific motivation behind a search for gravitational waves associated with short gamma ray bursts detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) during LIGO's fifth science run and Virgo's first science run. The IPN localisation of short gamma ray bursts is limited to extended error boxes of different shapes and sizes and a search on these error boxes poses a series of challenges for data analysis. We will discuss these challenges and outline the methods to optimise the search over these error boxes.Comment: Methods paper; Proceedings for Eduardo Amaldi 9 Conference on Gravitational Waves, July 2011, Cardiff, U

Rapid assessment of injection practices in Cambodia, 2002

BACKGROUND: Injection overuse and unsafe injection practices facilitate transmission of bloodborne pathogens such as hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Anecdotal reports of unsafe and unnecessary therapeutic injections and the high prevalence of HBV (8.0%), HCV (6.5%), and HIV (2.6%) infection in Cambodia have raised concern over injection safety. To estimate the magnitude and patterns of such practices, a rapid assessment of injection practices was conducted. METHODS: We surveyed a random sample of the general population in Takeo Province and convenience samples of prescribers and injection providers in Takeo Province and Phnom Penh city regarding injection-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Injection providers were observed administering injections. Data were collected using standardized methods adapted from the World Health Organization safe injection assessment guidelines. RESULTS: Among the general population sample (n = 500), the overall injection rate was 5.9 injections per person-year, with 40% of participants reporting receipt of ≥ 1 injection during the previous 6 months. Therapeutic injections, intravenous infusions, and immunizations accounted for 74%, 16% and 10% of injections, respectively. The majority (>85%) of injections were received in the private sector. All participants who recalled their last injection reported the injection was administered with a newly opened disposable syringe and needle. Prescribers (n = 60) reported that 47% of the total prescriptions they wrote included a therapeutic injection or infusion. Among injection providers (n = 60), 58% recapped the syringe after use and 13% did not dispose of the used needle and syringe appropriately. Over half (53%) of the providers reported a needlestick injury during the previous 12 months. Ninety percent of prescribers and injection providers were aware HBV, HCV, and HIV were transmitted through unsafe injection practices. Knowledge of HIV transmission through "dirty" syringes among the general population was also high (95%). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that Cambodia has one of the world's highest rates of overall injection usage, despite general awareness of associated infection risks. Although there was little evidence of reuse of needles and syringes, support is needed for interventions to address injection overuse, healthcare worker safety and appropriate waste disposal

Pathogenesis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep

The pathogenesis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in sheep was studied by immunohistochemical detection of scrapie-associated prion protein (PrPSc) in the gastrointestinal, lymphoid and neural tissues following oral inoculation with BSE brain homogenate. First accumulation of PrPSc was detected after 6 months in the tonsil and the ileal Peyer’s patches. At 9 months postinfection, PrPSc accumulation involved all gut-associated lymphoid tissues and lymph nodes as well as the spleen. At this time point, PrPSc accumulation in the peripheral neural tissues was first seen in the enteric nervous system of the caudal jejunum and ileum and in the coeliac-mesenteric ganglion. In the central nervous system, PrPSc was first detected in the dorsal motor nucleus of the nervus Vagus in the medulla oblongata and in the intermediolateral column in the spinal cord segments T7–L1. At subsequent time points, PrPSc was seen to spread within the lymphoid system to also involve all non-gut-associated lymphoid tissues. In the enteric nervous system, further spread of PrPSc involved the neural plexi along the entire gastrointestinal tract and in the CNS the complete neuraxis. These findings indicate a spread of the BSE agent in sheep from the enteric nervous system through parasympathetic and sympathetic nerves to the medulla oblongata and the spinal cord