A Theory of Outsourcing and Wage Decline

We develop a theory of outsourcing in which there is market power in one factor market (labor) and no market power in a second factor market (capital). There are two intermediate goods: one labor-intensive and the other capital-intensive. We show there is always outsourcing in the market allocation when a friction limiting outsourcing is not too big. The key factor underlying the result is that labor demand is more elastic, the greater the labor share. Integrated plants pay higher wages than the specialist producers of labor-intensive intermediates. We derive conditions under which there are multiple equilibria that vary in the degree of outsourcing. Across these equilibria, wages are lower the greater the degree of outsourcing. Wages fall when outsourcing increases in response to a decline in the outsourcing friction.

Approaches to Selecting "Time Zero" in External Control Arms with Multiple Potential Entry Points: A Simulation Study of 8 Approaches

Background: When including data from an external control arm to estimate comparative effectiveness, there is a methodological choice of when to set “time zero,” the point at which a patient would be eligible/enrolled in a contemporary study. Where patients receive multiple lines of eligible therapy and thus alternative points could be selected, this issue is complex. Methods: A simulation study was conducted in which patients received multiple prior lines of therapy before entering either cohort. The results from the control and intervention data sets are compared using 8 methods for selecting time zero. The base-case comparison was set up to be biased against the intervention (which is generally received later), with methods compared in their ability to estimate the true intervention effectiveness. We further investigate the impact of key study attributes (such as sample size) and degree of overlap in time-varying covariates (such as prior lines of therapy) on study results. Results: Of the 8 methods, 5 (all lines, random line, systematically selecting groups based on mean absolute error, root mean square error, or propensity scores) showed good performance in accounting for differences between the line at which patients were included. The first eligible line can be statistically inefficient in some situations. All lines (with censoring) cannot be used for survival outcomes. The last eligible line cannot be recommended. Conclusions: Multiple methods are available for selecting the most appropriate time zero from an external control arm. Based on the simulation, we demonstrate that some methods frequently perform poorly, with several viable methods remaining. In selecting between the viable methods, analysts should consider the context of their analysis and justify the approach selected. There are multiple methods available from which an analyst may select “time zero” in an external control cohort. This simulation study demonstrates that some methods perform poorly but most are viable options, depending on context and the degree of overlap in time zero across cohorts. Careful thought and clear justification should be used when selecting the strategy for a study

Clinical outcomes in patients relapsed/refractory after ≥2 prior lines of therapy for follicular lymphoma: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) can have high response rates to early lines of treatment. However, among FL patients relapsed/refractory (r/r) after ≥2 prior lines of therapy (LOT), remission tends to be shorter and there is limited treatment guidance. This study sought to evaluate the clinical outcomes for r/r FL after ≥2 prior LOT identified through systematic literature review. METHODS: Eligible studies included comparative or non-comparative interventional or observational studies of systemic therapies among adults with FL r/r after ≥2 prior LOT published prior to 31st May 2021. Prior LOT must have included an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody and an alkylating agent, in combination or separately. Overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR) were estimated using inverse-variance weighting with Freeman-Tukey double-arcsine transformations. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) estimated by reconstructing digitized curves using the Guyot algorithm, and survival analyses were conducted, stratified by ≥2 prior LOT and ≥ 3 prior LOT groups (as defined in the source material). Restricting the analyses to the observational cohorts was investigated as a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The analysis-set included 20 studies published between 2014 and 2021. Studies were primarily US and/or European based, with the few exceptions using treatments approved in US/Europe. The estimated ORR was 58.47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 51.13-65.62) and proportion of patients with CR was 19.63% (95% CI: 15.02-24.68). The median OS among those ≥2 prior LOT was 56.57 months (95% CI: 47.8-68.78) and median PFS was 9.78 months (95% CI: 9.01-10.63). The 24-month OS decreased from 66.50% in the ≥2 prior LOT group to 59.51% in the ≥3 prior LOT group, with a similar trend in PFS at 24-month (28.42% vs 24.13%). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that few r/r FL patients with ≥2 prior LOT achieve CR, and despite some benefit, approximately 1/3 of treated patients die within 24 months. The shorter median PFS with increasing prior LOT suggest treatment durability is suboptimal in later LOT. These findings indicate that patients are underserved by treatments currently available in the US and Europe

High-dose influenza vaccination and mortality among predominantly male, white, senior veterans, United States, 2012/13 to 2014/15

Introduction: It is unclear whether high- dose influenza vaccine (HD) is more effective at reducing mortality among seniors. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of HD. Methods: We linked electronic medical record databases in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and Medicare administrative files to examine the rVE of HD vs standard- dose influenza vaccines (SD) in preventing influenza/pneumonia-associated and cardiorespiratory mortality among VHA-enrolled veterans 65 years or older during the 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15 influenza seasons. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was performed on matched recipients of HD vs SD, based on vaccination time, location, age, sex, ethnicity and VHA priority level. Results: Among 569,552 person-seasons of observation, 207,574 (36%) were HD recipients and 361,978 (64%) were SD recipients, predominantly male (99%) and white (82%). Pooling findings from all three seasons, the adjusted rVE estimate of HD vs SD during the high influenza periods was 42% (95% confidence interval (CI): 24-59) against influenza/pneumonia-associated mortality and 27% (95% CI: 23-32) against cardiorespiratory mortality. Residual confounding was evident in both early and late influenza periods despite matching and multivariable adjustment. Excluding individuals with high 1-year predicted mortality at baseline reduced the residual confounding and yielded rVE of 36% (95% CI: 10-62) and 25% (95% CI: 12-38) against influenza/pneumonia-associated and cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively. These were confirmed by results from two-stage residual inclusion estimations. Discussion: The HD was associated with a lower risk of influenza/pneumonia-associated and cardiorespiratory death in men during the high influenza period

Treatment patterns and outcomes in relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma: results from the international SCHOLAR-5 study

The SCHOLAR-5 study examines treatment patterns and outcomes of real-world follicular lymphoma (FL) patients on 3rd line of treatment (LoT) or higher, for whom existing data are limited. SCHOLAR-5 is a retrospective cohort study using data from adults (≥ 18 years) with grade 1-3a FL, initiating ≥3rd LoT after June 2014 at major lymphoma centers in the United States (US) and Europe. Objective response rate (ORR), complete response (CR), progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by LoT. Time-to-event outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Of 128 patients, 87 initiated 3rd LoT, 63 initiated 4th LoT, and 47 initiated 5th LoT. At 1st eligible LoT, 31% progressed within 24-months of 1st LoT anti-CD20 combination therapy, 28% had prior autologous stem-cell transplantation, and 31% were refractory to the previous LoT. The most common regimen in each LoT was chemoimmunotherapy; however, experimental drugs were increasingly used at later LoTs. In the US, anti-CD20 monotherapy was more common at ≥3rd LoT compared to Europe, where stem cell transplants were more common. ORR at 3rd LoT was 68% (CR 44%), but decreased after each LoT to 37% (CR 22%) in ≥5 LoT. Median OS and PFS at 3rd LoT were 68 and 11 months, respectively, and reduced to 43 and 4 months at ≥5 LoT. Treatments were heterogenous at each LoT in both the US and Europe. Few FL patients achieved complete response in later LoT, and duration of response and survival diminished with each subsequent line

A Facile Synthetic Route to a Family of Mn(III) Monomers and their Structural, Magnetic and Spectroscopic Studies

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Wiley in European Journal of Inorganic Chemistry on 07/10/2016, available online: https://doi.org/10.1002/ejic.201601124 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.© 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim We report a rapid and facile route to the synthesis of a family of MnIIImonomers of general formula [MnIIIF3(H2O)(L1–6)]·xH2O·yMeOH [L1= 2,2′-bipyridyl, x = 2, y = 0 (1′); L2= 1,10′-phenanthroline, x = y = 0 (2′); L3= 6-methyl-2,2′-dipyridyl, x = y = 0 (3), L4= 4,4-dimethyl-2,2′-dipyridyl, x = 2, y = 0 (4), L5= 5,5′-dimethyl-2,2′-dipyridyl, x = 0, y = 0.5 (5); L6= 5-chloro-1,10-phenanthroline, x = y = 0 (6)]. Magnetic susceptibility and magnetisation experiments have been employed to elucidate the D tensor for each family member (ranging from –3.01 cm–1in 2′ to –4.02 cm–1in 5), while multi-frequency/high-field EPR spectroscopic measurements and subsequent simulations gave similar values for complexes 1′ (–4.25 cm–1), 2′ (–4.03 cm–1), 4 (–3.90 cm–1) and 5 (–4.04 cm–1). The terminal Mn–F vibrational stretches in 1′–6 have been probed using Raman spectroscopy.The authors would like to thank the Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and Technology (IRSCET) Embark Fellowship (E. H.) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPRSC) (S. S. and E. K. B.) for funding.Published versio

Design and construction of the MicroBooNE Cosmic Ray Tagger system

The MicroBooNE detector utilizes a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) with an 85 t active mass to study neutrino interactions along the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab. With a deployment location near ground level, the detector records many cosmic muon tracks in each beam-related detector trigger that can be misidentified as signals of interest. To reduce these cosmogenic backgrounds, we have designed and constructed a TPC-external Cosmic Ray Tagger (CRT). This sub-system was developed by the Laboratory for High Energy Physics (LHEP), Albert Einstein center for fundamental physics, University of Bern. The system utilizes plastic scintillation modules to provide precise time and position information for TPC-traversing particles. Successful matching of TPC tracks and CRT data will allow us to reduce cosmogenic background and better characterize the light collection system and LArTPC data using cosmic muons. In this paper we describe the design and installation of the MicroBooNE CRT system and provide an overview of a series of tests done to verify the proper operation of the system and its components during installation, commissioning, and physics data-taking

State-dependent life history models in a changing (and regulated) environment: steelhead in the California Central Valley

We use a state dependent life history model to predict the life history strategies of female steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in altered environments. As a case study of a broadly applicable approach, we applied this model to the American and Mokelumne Rivers in central California, where steelhead are listed as threatened. Both rivers have been drastically altered, with highly regulated flows and translocations that may have diluted local adaptation. Nevertheless, evolutionary optimization models could successfully predict the life history displayed by fish on the American River (all anadromous, with young smolts) and on the Mokelumne River (a mix of anadromy and residency). The similar fitness of the two strategies for the Mokelumne suggested that a mixed strategy could be favored in a variable environment. We advance the management utility of this framework by explicitly modeling growth as a function of environmental conditions and using sensitivity analyses to predict likely evolutionary endpoints under changed environments. We conclude that the greatest management concern with respect to preserving anadromy is reduced survival of emigrating smolts, although large changes in freshwater survival or growth rates are potentially also important. We also demonstrate the importance of considering asymptotic size along with maximum growth rate

A Deep Neural Network for Pixel-Level Electromagnetic Particle Identification in the MicroBooNE Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber

We have developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) that can make a pixel-level prediction of objects in image data recorded by a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) for the first time. We describe the network design, training techniques, and software tools developed to train this network. The goal of this work is to develop a complete deep neural network based data reconstruction chain for the MicroBooNE detector. We show the first demonstration of a network's validity on real LArTPC data using MicroBooNE collection plane images. The demonstration is performed for stopping muon and a $\nu_\mu$ charged current neutral pion data samples

Rejecting cosmic background for exclusive neutrino interaction studies with Liquid Argon TPCs; a case study with the MicroBooNE detector

Cosmic ray (CR) interactions can be a challenging source of background for neutrino oscillation and cross-section measurements in surface detectors. We present methods for CR rejection in measurements of charged-current quasielastic-like (CCQE-like) neutrino interactions, with a muon and a proton in the final state, measured using liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs). Using a sample of cosmic data collected with the MicroBooNE detector, mixed with simulated neutrino scattering events, a set of event selection criteria is developed that produces an event sample with minimal contribution from CR background. Depending on the selection criteria used a purity between 50% and 80% can be achieved with a signal selection efficiency between 50% and 25%, with higher purity coming at the expense of lower efficiency. While using a specific dataset from the MicroBooNE detector and selection criteria values optimized for CCQE-like events, the concepts presented here are generic and can be adapted for various studies of exclusive {\nu}{\mu} interactions in LArTPCs.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, 1 tabl