Statistical design and monitoring of the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET).

CARET is a chemoprevention trial of beta-carotene and vitamin A with lung cancer as the primary outcome. Participants at high risk for lung cancer are drawn from two populations: asbestos-exposed workers and heavy smokers. The intervention is a daily combination of 30 mg beta-carotene and 25,000 IU vitamin A as retinyl palmitate. Nearly 18,000 participants will be followed for a mean 6 years, yielding over 100,000 person-years of follow-up. We project that this sample size will have 80% power to detect a 23% decrease in the incidence of lung cancer cases. The purpose of this paper is to present the values of the key sample size parameters of CARET; our schemes for monitoring CARET for sample size adequacy, incidence of side effects, and efficacy of the study vitamins; an overview of the data collected; and plans for the primary, secondary, and ancillary analyses to be performed at the end of the trial. These approaches to the design, monitoring, and analysis of CARET are applicable for many other prevention trials

The association between timed up and go test and history of falls: The Tromsø study

BACKGROUND: Fall-related injuries in older adults are a major health problem. Although the aetiology of falls is multifactorial, physical factors are assumed to contribute significantly. The "Timed up and go test" (TUG) is designed to measure basic mobility function. This report evaluates the association between TUG times and history of falls. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, population-based study was conducted on 414 men and 560 women with mean age 77.5 (SD 2.3). TUG time and falls during the previous 12 months were recorded. Covariates were age, sex, medical history and health-related mobility problems. Means, confidence intervals and test characteristics for TUG were calculated. Odds ratios and influence of covariates were examined by logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean TUG time was 11.1s (SD 2.5) among male non-fallers and 13.0s (SD 7.8) among fallers. The difference was 1.9s (95%CI 0.9–3.0). The odds ratio for fallers being in the upper quartile was 2.1 (95%CI 1.4–3.3). Adjusted for covariates, the odds ratio was (OR = 1.8, 95%CI 1.1–2.9). The corresponding mean was 13.0s (SD 5.74) among female non-fallers and 13.9s (SD 8.5) among fallers. The difference was 0.9 (95%CI -0.3–2.1). The odds ratio for fallers being in upper quartile was 1.0 (95%CI 0.7–1.4). The area under the ROC curve was 0.50 (95%CI 0.45–0.55) in women and 0.56 (95%CI 0.50–0.62) in men. CONCLUSION: TUG is statistically associated with a history of falls in men but not in women. The ability to classify fallers is poor, and the clinical value of the association is therefore limited

A Mouse to Human Search for Plasma Proteome Changes Associated with Pancreatic Tumor Development

Background: The complexity and heterogeneity of the human plasma proteome have presented significant challenges in the identification of protein changes associated with tumor development. Refined genetically engineered mouse (GEM) models of human cancer have been shown to faithfully recapitulate the molecular, biological, and clinical features of human disease. Here, we sought to exploit the merits of a well-characterized GEM model of pancreatic cancer to determine whether proteomics technologies allow identification of protein changes associated with tumor development and whether such changes are relevant to human pancreatic cancer. Methods and Findings: Plasma was sampled from mice at early and advanced stages of tumor development and from matched controls. Using a proteomic approach based on extensive protein fractionation, we confidently identified 1,442 proteins that were distributed across seven orders of magnitude of abundance in plasma. Analysis of proteins chosen on the basis of increased levels in plasma from tumor-bearing mice and corroborating protein or RNA expression in tissue documented concordance in the blood from 30 newly diagnosed patients with pancreatic cancer relative to 30 control specimens. A panel of five proteins selected on the basis of their increased level at an early stage of tumor development in the mouse was tested in a blinded study in 26 humans from the CARET (Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial) cohort. The panel discriminated pancreatic cancer cases from matched controls in blood specimens obtained between 7 and 13 mo prior to the development of symptoms and clinical diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that GEM models of cancer, in combination with in-depth proteomic analysis, provide a useful strategy to identify candidate markers applicable to human cancer with potential utility for early detection

Associated Links Among Smoking, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Pooled Analysis in the International Lung Cancer Consortium.

Background The high relapse and mortality rate of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) fuels the need for epidemiologic study to aid in its prevention. Methods We included 24 studies from the ILCCO collaboration. Random-effects panel logistic regression and cubic spline regression were used to estimate the effects of smoking behaviors on SCLC risk and explore their non-linearity. Further, we explored whether the risk of smoking on SCLC was mediated through COPD. Findings Significant dose–response relationships of SCLC risk were observed for all quantitative smoking variables. Smoking pack-years were associated with a sharper increase of SCLC risk for pack-years ranged 0 to approximately 50. The former smokers with longer cessation showed a 43%quit_for_5–9 years to 89%quit_for_≥ 20 years declined SCLC risk vs. subjects who had quit smoking < 5 years. Compared with non-COPD subjects, smoking behaviors showed a significantly higher effect on SCLC risk among COPD subjects, and further, COPD patients showed a 1.86-fold higher risk of SCLC. Furthermore, smoking behaviors on SCLC risk were significantly mediated through COPD which accounted for 0.70% to 7.55% of total effects. Interpretation This is the largest pooling study that provides improved understanding of smoking on SCLC, and further demonstrates a causal pathway through COPD that warrants further experimental study. Abbreviations COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CPG, cigarettes per day; ILCCO, International Lung Cancer Consortium; MeSH, medical subject headings; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer; OR, odds ratio; SCLC, small cell lung cancer

Analyses of cerebral microdialysis in patients with traumatic brain injury: relations to intracranial pressure, cerebral perfusion pressure and catheter placement

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cerebral microdialysis (MD) is used to monitor local brain chemistry of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Despite an extensive literature on cerebral MD in the clinical setting, it remains unclear how individual levels of real-time MD data are to be interpreted. Intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) are important continuous brain monitors in neurointensive care. They are used as surrogate monitors of cerebral blood flow and have an established relation to outcome. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relations between MD parameters and ICP and/or CPP in patients with TBI.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cerebral MD, ICP and CPP were monitored in 90 patients with TBI. Data were extensively analyzed, using over 7,350 samples of complete (hourly) MD data sets (glucose, lactate, pyruvate and glycerol) to seek representations of ICP, CPP and MD that were best correlated. MD catheter positions were located on computed tomography scans as pericontusional or nonpericontusional. MD markers were analyzed for correlations to ICP and CPP using time series regression analysis, mixed effects models and nonlinear (artificial neural networks) computer-based pattern recognition methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Despite much data indicating highly perturbed metabolism, MD shows weak correlations to ICP and CPP. In contrast, the autocorrelation of MD is high for all markers, even at up to 30 future hours. Consequently, subject identity alone explains 52% to 75% of MD marker variance. This indicates that the dominant metabolic processes monitored with MD are long-term, spanning days or longer. In comparison, short-term (differenced or Δ) changes of MD vs. CPP are significantly correlated in pericontusional locations, but with less than 1% explained variance. Moreover, CPP and ICP were significantly related to outcome based on Glasgow Outcome Scale scores, while no significant relations were found between outcome and MD.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The multitude of highly perturbed local chemistry seen with MD in patients with TBI predominately represents long-term metabolic patterns and is weakly correlated to ICP and CPP. This suggests that disturbances other than pressure and/or flow have a dominant influence on MD levels in patients with TBI.</p

CYP24A1 variant modifies the association between use of oestrogen plus progestogen therapy and colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use has been consistently associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in women. Our aim was to use a genome-wide gene-environment interaction analysis to identify genetic modifiers of CRC risk associated with use of MHT. METHODS: We included 10 835 postmenopausal women (5419 cases and 5416 controls) from 10 studies. We evaluated use of any MHT, oestrogen-only (E-only) and combined oestrogen-progestogen (E+P) hormone preparations. To test for multiplicative interactions, we applied the empirical Bayes (EB) test as well as the Wald test in conventional case-control logistic regression as primary tests. The Cocktail test was used as secondary test. RESULTS: The EB test identified a significant interaction between rs964293 at 20q13.2/CYP24A1 and E+P (interaction OR (95% CIs)=0.61 (0.52-0.72), P=4.8 × 10(-9)). The secondary analysis also identified this interaction (Cocktail test OR=0.64 (0.52-0.78), P=1.2 × 10(-5) (alpha threshold=3.1 × 10(-4)). The ORs for association between E+P and CRC risk by rs964293 genotype were as follows: C/C, 0.96 (0.61-1.50); A/C, 0.61 (0.39-0.95) and A/A, 0.40 (0.22-0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that rs964293 modifies the association between E+P and CRC risk. The variant is located near CYP24A1, which encodes an enzyme involved in vitamin D metabolism. This novel finding offers additional insight into downstream pathways of CRC etiopathogenesis

Burden of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Related to Tobacco Smoking among Adults Aged ≥45 Years in Asia: A Pooled Analysis of 21 Cohorts

Background:Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest.Methods and Findings:We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan-accounting for ∼71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37-1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38-1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%-17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%-4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000-1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: A 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y.Conclusions:Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. © 2014 Zheng et al

Mendelian randomization study of height and risk of colorectal cancer

Background: For men and women, taller height is associated with increased risk of all cancers combined. For colorectal cancer (CRC), it is unclear whether the differential association of height by sex is real or is due to confounding or bias inherent in observational studies. We performed a Mendelian randomization study to examine the association between height and CRC risk