Historical Climatology of the Alaska Climate Divisions

Complex topography and proximity to coasts results in multiple climate types in Alaska. Climate variability is regional in Alaska. Understanding regional climate variability can further evaluation of climate change, seasonal climate prediction, and teleconnection impacts. Novel climate divisions for Alaska present new avenues for climate products and services.NOAA Climate Program Office grant NA10OAR4310055 through CIFA

Deriving Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series For Alaska Climate Divisions Via Climatologically Aided Interpolation

This paper describes the construction of temperature and precipitation time series for climate divisions in Alaska for 1925-2015. Designed for NOAA climate monitoring applications, these new series build upon the divisional data of Bieniek et al. (2014) through the inclusion of additional observing stations, temperature bias adjustments, supplemental temperature elements, and enhanced computational techniques (i.e., climatologically aided interpolation). The new NOAA series are in general agreement with Bieniek et al. (2014), differences being attributable to the underlying methods used to compute divisional averages in each dataset. Trends in minimum temperature are significant in most divisions whereas trends in maximum temperature are generally not significant in the eastern third of the state. Likewise, the statewide rate of warming in minimum temperature (0.158°C dec-1) is roughly 50% larger than that of maximum temperature (0.101 °C dec-1). Trends in precipitation are not significant for most divisions or for the state as a whole

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Climate Divisions for Alaska Based on Objective Methods

Alaska encompasses several climate types because of its vast size, high-latitude location, proximity to oceans, and complex topography. There is a great need to understand how climate varies regionally for climatic research and forecasting applications. Although climate-type zones have been established for Alaska on the basis of seasonal climatological mean behavior, there has been little attempt to construct climate divisions that identify regions with consistently homogeneous climatic variability. In this study, cluster analysis was applied to monthly-average temperature data from 1977 to 2010 at a robust set of weather stations to develop climate divisions for the state. Mean-adjusted Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer surface temperature estimates were employed to fill in missing temperature data when possible. Thirteen climate divisions were identified on the basis of the cluster analysis and were subsequently refined using local expert knowledge. Divisional boundary lines were drawn that encompass the grouped stations by following major surrounding topographic boundaries. Correlation analysis between station and gridded downscaled temperature and precipitation data supported the division placement and boundaries. The new divisions north of the Alaska Range were the North Slope, West Coast, Central Interior, Northeast Interior, and Northwest Interior. Divisions south of the Alaska Range were Cook Inlet, Bristol Bay, Aleutians, Northeast Gulf, Northwest Gulf, North Panhandle, Central Panhandle, and South Panhandle. Correlations with various Pacific Ocean and Arctic climatic teleconnection indices showed numerous significant relationships between seasonal division average temperature and the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific–North American pattern, North Pacific index, and Pacific decadal oscillation.Keywords: Statistical techniques, Climate variability, Climate classification/regimes, Regional effects, Climatolog

This work was supported by The Department of the Interior Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, which is managed by the USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Center.

53 pages : color illustrations, color maps ; 28 cmThis report is designed as a living document to inform the community, decision makers, and academics and to serve as a learning and teaching tool. The nine key messages summarized on pages 6 and 7 are intended for use as a quick reference. Unique for this type of report, these key messages highlight actions by Juneau's civil society, including local nonprofit organizations.We thank the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ) for its support in bringing this vital information on climate change to the Juneau community and to others. Thanks especially to all the co-authors and other contributors. The inclusion of such a diverse array of material, including local knowledge, was made possible by the many elders, scientists, and local experts who contributed their time and expertise. The report is online at acrc.alaska.edu/ juneau-climate-report. It is an honor to be the lead editor and project manager for this critical effort. We have a chance to save our world from the most extreme effects of climate change. Let us take it. Gunalchéesh, sincerely, James E. Powell (Jim), PhD, Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center, UASWelcome / Thomas F. Thornton -- Juneau's climate report: History and background / Bruce Botelho -- Using this report -- Acknowledgements / James E. Powell -- A regional Indigenous perspective on adaptation: The Central Council of Tlingit & Haida Indian Tribes of Alaska's Climate Change Adaptation Plan / Raymond Paddock -- Nine key messages -- What we're experiencing: Atmospheric, marine, terrestrial, and ecological effects. Climate. Setting and seasons / Tom Ainsworth -- More precipitation / Rick Thoman -- Higher temperatures / Rich Thoman -- Less snowfall / Eran Hood -- Ocean. Surface uplift and sea level rise / Eran Hood -- Extensive effects of a warming ocean / Heidi Pearson -- Increasing ocean acidification / Robert Foy -- Land. More landslides / Sonia Nagorski & Aaron Jacobs -- Mendenhall Glacier continues to retreat / Jason Amundson -- Tongass Forest impacts and carbon / Dave D'Amore -- Animals. Terrestrial vertebrates in A¿¿ak'w & T'aak¿łu Aani¿¿ / Richard Carstensen -- Three animals as indicators of change / Richard Carstensen -- Insects / Bob Armstrong -- What we're doing: Community response. Upgrading ifrastructure and mitigation / Katie Koester -- Upgrading utilities and other energy consumers / Alec Mesdag -- Growing demand for hydropower / Duff Mitchell -- Leading a shift in transportation / Duff Mitchell -- Maintaining mental health through community and recreation / Linda Kruger & Kevin Maier -- Food security / Darren Snyder & Jim Powell -- Large cruise ship air emissions / Jim Powell -- Tourists' views on climate change mitigation / Jim Powell -- Lowering greenhouse gas emissions / Jim Powell & Peggy Wilcox -- Residents taking action / Andy Romanoff & Jim Powell -- Summary and Recommendations -- References -- Graphics and data sources -- Appendix: Juneau nonprofit climate change organization

Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.The National Science Foundation (#OIA-1753748), the State of Alaska, the United States Geological Survey (G17AC00363), and the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AC00213) provided support for this study. NOAA supported this work through grants #NA16OAR4310162 (R.T., J.E.W., A.Y.) and #NA16OAR4310142 (U.S.B., P.A.B.)Ye

The Arctic

peer reviewe

Deriving Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series For Alaska Climate Divisions Via Climatologically Aided Interpolation

This paper describes the construction of temperature and precipitation time series for climate divisions in Alaska for 1925-2015. Designed for NOAA climate monitoring applications, these new series build upon the divisional data of Bieniek et al. (2014) through the inclusion of additional observing stations, temperature bias adjustments, supplemental temperature elements, and enhanced computational techniques (i.e., climatologically aided interpolation). The new NOAA series are in general agreement with Bieniek et al. (2014), differences being attributable to the underlying methods used to compute divisional averages in each dataset. Trends in minimum temperature are significant in most divisions whereas trends in maximum temperature are generally not significant in the eastern third of the state. Likewise, the statewide rate of warming in minimum temperature (0.158°C dec-1) is roughly 50% larger than that of maximum temperature (0.101 °C dec-1). Trends in precipitation are not significant for most divisions or for the state as a whole

Climate Divisions for Alaska Based on Objective Methods

Alaska encompasses several climate types because of its vast size, high-latitude location, proximity to oceans, and complex topography. There is a great need to understand how climate varies regionally for climatic research and forecasting applications. Although climate-type zones have been established for Alaska on the basis of seasonal climatological mean behavior, there has been little attempt to construct climate divisions that identify regions with consistently homogeneous climatic variability. In this study, cluster analysis was applied to monthly-average temperature data from 1977 to 2010 at a robust set of weather stations to develop climate divisions for the state. Mean-adjusted Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer surface temperature estimates were employed to fill in missing temperature data when possible. Thirteen climate divisions were identified on the basis of the cluster analysis and were subsequently refined using local expert knowledge. Divisional boundary lines were drawn that encompass the grouped stations by following major surrounding topographic boundaries. Correlation analysis between station and gridded downscaled temperature and precipitation data supported the division placement and boundaries. The new divisions north of the Alaska Range were the North Slope, West Coast, Central Interior, Northeast Interior, and Northwest Interior. Divisions south of the Alaska Range were Cook Inlet, Bristol Bay, Aleutians, Northeast Gulf, Northwest Gulf, North Panhandle, Central Panhandle, and South Panhandle. Correlations with various Pacific Ocean and Arctic climatic teleconnection indices showed numerous significant relationships between seasonal division average temperature and the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific–North American pattern, North Pacific index, and Pacific decadal oscillation