Evolutionary-based prediction interval estimation by blending solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological weather types

Recent research has shown that the integration or blending of different forecasting models is able to improve the predictions of solar radiation. However, most works perform model blending to improve point forecasts, but the integration of forecasting models to improve probabilistic forecasting has not received much attention. In this work the estimation of prediction intervals for the integration of four Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting models (Smart Persistence, WRF-solar, CIADcast, and Satellite) is addressed. Several short-term forecasting horizons, up to one hour ahead, have been analyzed. Within this context, one of the aims of the article is to study whether knowledge about the synoptic weather conditions, which are related to the stability of weather, might help to reduce the uncertainty represented by prediction intervals. In order to deal with this issue, information about which weather type is present at the time of prediction, has been used by the blending model. Four weather types have been considered. A multi-objective variant of the Lower Upper Bound Estimation approach has been used in this work for prediction interval estimation and compared with two baseline methods: Quantile Regression (QR) and Gradient Boosting (GBR). An exhaustive experimental validation has been carried out, using data registered at Seville in the Southern Iberian Peninsula. Results show that, in general, using weather type information reduces uncertainty of prediction intervals, according to all performance metrics used. More specifically, and with respect to one of the metrics (the ratio between interval coverage and width), for high-coverage (0.90, 0.95) prediction intervals, using weather type enhances the ratio of the multi-objective approach by 2%¿. Also, comparing the multi-objective approach versus the two baselines for high-coverage intervals, the improvement is 11%¿% over QR and 10%¿% over GBR. Improvements for low-coverage intervals (0.85) are smaller.The authors are supported by projects funded by Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Spain (PID2019-107455RB-C21 and PID2019-107455RB-C22/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Also supported by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project ENE2014-56126-C2-1-R and ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R (http://prosol.uc3m.es). The University of Jaén team is also supported by FEDER, Spain funds and by the Junta de Andalucía, Spain (Research group TEP-220

Effect of binary raw materials replacement (quartz and feldspar) for porcelain chamotte on the electro-technical siliceous porcelain properties

The hurry for ecological practices and waste control has emerged as an obligation in modern times, demanding precise strategies to restrain waste accumulation and to stimulate recycling and reuse actions to lower the climate effect. The replacement of binary raw materials for porcelain chamotte waste in siliceous porcelain was studied to obtain eco-friendly high-voltage porcelain. Quartz and feldspar were progressively replaced by 5, 10, and 15 wt.% of porcelain chamotte in a conventional siliceous electro-technical porcelain composition. The replacement effect on sintered samples at 1250°C under industrial heat treatment was evaluated by measuring the linear shrinkage, bulk density, porosity, flexural strength, and microhardness technological properties. Phase analysis was carried out by X-ray diffraction. Microstructural characteristics were studied using a scanning electron microscope. The results showed that chamotte-containing samples reached bulk densities of about 2.36 g/cm3 and a porosity percentage near zero. The maximum flexural strength value at glazed states was 87.8 MPa, for 15 wt.% scrap-containing samples. X-ray diffraction studies revealed a higher mullite phase content in chamotte-containing samples. Scanning electronic microscopy images of the polished and etched specimens show the presence of quartz grains and secondary mullite needles embedded in a feldspathic vitreous matrix. The properties reached by the chamotte-containing samples are attractive since the values obtained in terms of flexural strength, density, and porosity are compared to those reported for conventional siliceous porcelain were obtained. The most noticeable result was observed in flexural resistance. The glazed porcelain bodies showed a flexural strength improvement of about 15%. Then, these porcelain compositions suggest an alternative to produce a more sustainable, affordable, and environmentally-friendly porcelain insulator product

Synthesis, microstructure and volumetry of novel metal thiocyanate ionic liquids with [BMIM] cation

We present a new family of ionic liquids (ILs) with a common cation, 1-butyl-3-methyl imidazolium, the popular [BMIM]+ (also written C4C1Im+) and a variety of anionic complexes (also called adducts) based in thiocyanate (SCN)?: one blank compound, BMIM(SCN), and ten doped with metals having different oxidation states: Al+3, Mn+2, Fe+3, Cr+3, Ni+2, Hg+2, Zn+2, Co+2, Cd+2 and Cu+, forming, respectively, [BMIM]3[Al(SCN)6], [BMIM]4 Mn(SCN)6, [BMIM]3 Fe(SCN)6, [BMIM]3 Cr(SCN)6, [BMIM]4 Ni(SCN)6, [BMIM]2 Hg(SCN)4, [BMIM]2 Zn(SCN)4, [BMIM]2 Co(SCN)4, [BMIM]2 Cd(SCN)4 and [BMIM]3 Cu(SCN)4. All of them were synthesized by us, except the blank IL and the Co thiocyanate, which are commercial. Obtained products have been characterized by NMR, and also by electrospray ionization, MS-ES, which allows the determination of the new ILs purities. Then, compounds have been analyzed using FT-IR and Raman spectroscopy. In addition, magnetic susceptibility and refractive index measurements were performed in some of the compounds studied, as well as thermal characterization using DSC and TGA. Finally, experimental measurements of density on all those ILs have been performed, and for some of the samples in a broad temperature range (about 100 K). In spite of being very similar compounds from the chemical point of view, they present quite different physical properties, including optical, thermal and magnetic ones? Also, they show different oxidation states (one with +1, six with +2 and other three with +3). We guess that this family of ILs will have interesting applications, mainly for photonic devices

Identification of regulatory variants associated with genetic susceptibility to meningococcal disease

Non-coding genetic variants play an important role in driving susceptibility to complex diseases but their characterization remains challenging. Here, we employed a novel approach to interrogate the genetic risk of such polymorphisms in a more systematic way by targeting specific regulatory regions relevant for the phenotype studied. We applied this method to meningococcal disease susceptibility, using the DNA binding pattern of RELA - a NF-kB subunit, master regulator of the response to infection - under bacterial stimuli in nasopharyngeal epithelial cells. We designed a custom panel to cover these RELA binding sites and used it for targeted sequencing in cases and controls. Variant calling and association analysis were performed followed by validation of candidate polymorphisms by genotyping in three independent cohorts. We identified two new polymorphisms, rs4823231 and rs11913168, showing signs of association with meningococcal disease susceptibility. In addition, using our genomic data as well as publicly available resources, we found evidences for these SNPs to have potential regulatory effects on ATXN10 and LIF genes respectively. The variants and related candidate genes are relevant for infectious diseases and may have important contribution for meningococcal disease pathology. Finally, we described a novel genetic association approach that could be applied to other phenotypes

Plasma lipid profiles discriminate bacterial from viral infection in febrile children

Fever is the most common reason that children present to Emergency Departments. Clinical signs and symptoms suggestive of bacterial infection are often non-specific, and there is no definitive test for the accurate diagnosis of infection. The 'omics' approaches to identifying biomarkers from the host-response to bacterial infection are promising. In this study, lipidomic analysis was carried out with plasma samples obtained from febrile children with confirmed bacterial infection (n = 20) and confirmed viral infection (n = 20). We show for the first time that bacterial and viral infection produces distinct profile in the host lipidome. Some species of glycerophosphoinositol, sphingomyelin, lysophosphatidylcholine and cholesterol sulfate were higher in the confirmed virus infected group, while some species of fatty acids, glycerophosphocholine, glycerophosphoserine, lactosylceramide and bilirubin were lower in the confirmed virus infected group when compared with confirmed bacterial infected group. A combination of three lipids achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.911 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.98). This pilot study demonstrates the potential of metabolic biomarkers to assist clinicians in distinguishing bacterial from viral infection in febrile children, to facilitate effective clinical management and to the limit inappropriate use of antibiotics

Life-threatening infections in children in Europe (the EUCLIDS Project): a prospective cohort study

Background: Sepsis and severe focal infections represent a substantial disease burden in children admitted to hospital. We aimed to understand the burden of disease and outcomes in children with life-threatening bacterial infections in Europe. Methods: The European Union Childhood Life-threatening Infectious Disease Study (EUCLIDS) was a prospective, multicentre, cohort study done in six countries in Europe. Patients aged 1 month to 18 years with sepsis (or suspected sepsis) or severe focal infections, admitted to 98 participating hospitals in the UK, Austria, Germany, Lithuania, Spain, and the Netherlands were prospectively recruited between July 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2015. To assess disease burden and outcomes, we collected demographic and clinical data using a secured web-based platform and obtained microbiological data using locally available clinical diagnostic procedures. Findings: 2844 patients were recruited and included in the analysis. 1512 (53·2%) of 2841 patients were male and median age was 39·1 months (IQR 12·4–93·9). 1229 (43·2%) patients had sepsis and 1615 (56·8%) had severe focal infections. Patients diagnosed with sepsis had a median age of 27·6 months (IQR 9·0–80·2), whereas those diagnosed with severe focal infections had a median age of 46·5 months (15·8–100·4; p<0·0001). Of 2844 patients in the entire cohort, the main clinical syndromes were pneumonia (511 [18·0%] patients), CNS infection (469 [16·5%]), and skin and soft tissue infection (247 [8·7%]). The causal microorganism was identified in 1359 (47·8%) children, with the most prevalent ones being Neisseria meningitidis (in 259 [9·1%] patients), followed by Staphylococcus aureus (in 222 [7·8%]), Streptococcus pneumoniae (in 219 [7·7%]), and group A streptococcus (in 162 [5·7%]). 1070 (37·6%) patients required admission to a paediatric intensive care unit. Of 2469 patients with outcome data, 57 (2·2%) deaths occurred: seven were in patients with severe focal infections and 50 in those with sepsis. Interpretation: Mortality in children admitted to hospital for sepsis or severe focal infections is low in Europe. The disease burden is mainly in children younger than 5 years and is largely due to vaccine-preventable meningococcal and pneumococcal infections. Despite the availability and application of clinical procedures for microbiological diagnosis, the causative organism remained unidentified in approximately 50% of patients

Plasma lipid profiles discriminate bacterial from viral infection in febrile children

Fever is the most common reason that children present to Emergency Departments. Clinical signs and symptoms suggestive of bacterial infection ar

A short-term solar radiation forecasting system for the Iberian Peninsula. Part 1: Models description and performance assessment

The ability of four models to provide short-term (up to 6 h ahead) GHI and DNI forecasts in the Iberian Peninsula is assessed based on two years of data collected at four stations. The models follow (mostly) independent approaches: one pure statistical model (Smart Persistence), one model based on CMV derived from satellite images (Satellite), one NWP model (WRF-Solar) and a hybrid satellite-NWP model (CIADCast). Overall, results show Smart Persistence to be the best at the first lead steps, advective models (Satellite and CIADCast) at intermediate ones and the WRF-Solar at the end of the forecasting period. The break-even point between the advective models and WRF-Solar varies between 1 and 3 h for GHI and 3 and 5 h for DNI. Nevertheless, a detailed analysis shows enormous differences between models performance related to 1) the local geographic and topographic conditions of the evaluation stations; 2) the evaluated variable (GHI vs. DNI); and 3) the sky and synoptic weather conditions over the study area. Depending on the station and lead time, rRMSE values range from 25% to 70% for GHI and from 35% to 100% for DNI. For the same stations and leading time, rRMSE values for DNI are between 50% and 100% higher than the corresponding GHI counterparts. Depending on the synoptic pattern, rRMSE values are about 10/20% for GHI/DNI (3 h lead time, during high pressure conditions) to about 80/180% for GHI/DNI (during low pressure conditions). All models show a poor performance at a coastal station, attributed to a lack of ability to forecast clouds associated with sea-land breezes. To conclude, no single model proves to be the best performing model and, therefore, results show that the four models are, somehow, complementary. The advantages attained by this complementarity are further explored in a companion paper (Part II).The authors are supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project ENE2014-56126-C2-1-R and ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R (http://prosol.uc3m.es). The team from the University of Jaen is also supported by FEDER funds and by the Junta de Andalucía (Research group TEP-220). The authors thank all the provided support. The authors are in debt with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), EUMETSAT, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, Grupo de Energía Solar of the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid and Abengoa Solar for providing the data used in this work