How Much Is Enough? Optimal Support Payments in a Renewable-Rich Power System

The large-scale deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources may cause substantial power imbalance. Together with the transmission grid congestion caused by the remoteness of these sources from load centers, this creates a need for fast-adjusting conventional capacity such as gas-fired plants. However, these plants have become unprofitable because of lower power prices due to the zero marginal costs of renewables. Consequently, policymakers are proposing new measures for mitigating balancing costs and securing supply. In this paper, we take the perspective of the regulator to assess the effectiveness of support payments to flexible generators. Using data on the German power system, we implement a bi-level programming model, which shows that such payments for gas-fired plants in southern Germany reduce balancing costs and can be used as part of policy to integrate renewable energy

Does Renewable Energy Generation Decrease the Volatility of Electricity Prices? An Analysis of Denmark and Germany

Although variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies with zero marginal costs decrease electricity prices, the literature is inconclusive about how the resulting shift in the supply curves impacts price volatility. Because the flexibility to respond to high peak and low off-peak prices is crucial for demand-response applications and may compensate for the losses of conventional generators caused by lower average prices, there is a need to understand how the penetration of VRE affects volatility. In this paper, we build distributed lag models with Danish and German data to estimate the impact of VRE generation on electricity price volatility. We find that in Denmark wind power decreases the daily volatility of prices by flattening the hourly price profile, but in Germany it increases the volatility because it has a stronger impact on off-peak prices. Our analysis suggests that access to flexible generation capacity and wind power generation patterns contribute to these differing impacts. Meanwhile, solar power decreases price volatility in Germany. By contrast, the weekly volatility of prices increases in both areas due to the intermittency of VRE. Thus, policy measures for facilitating the integration of VRE should be tailored to such region-specific patterns

Serum immune-activation potency and response to anti-TNF-a therapy in Crohn's disease

Peer reviewe

Do female association preferences predict the likelihood of reproduction?

Sexual selection acting on male traits through female mate choice is commonly inferred from female association preferences in dichotomous mate choice experiments. However, there are surprisingly few empirical demonstrations that such association preferences predict the likelihood of females reproducing with a particular male. This information is essential to confirm association preferences as good predictors of mate choice. We used green swordtails (<i>Xiphophorus helleri</i>) to test whether association preferences predict the likelihood of a female reproducing with a male. Females were tested for a preference for long- or short-sworded males in a standard dichotomous choice experiment and then allowed free access to either their preferred or non-preferred male. If females subsequently failed to produce fry, they were provided a second unfamiliar male with similar sword length to the first male. Females were more likely to reproduce with preferred than non-preferred males, but for those that reproduced, neither the status (preferred/non-preferred) nor the sword length (long/short) of the male had an effect on brood size or relative investment in growth by the female. There was no overall preference based on sword length in this study, but male sword length did affect likelihood of reproduction, with females more likely to reproduce with long- than short-sworded males (independent of preference for such males in earlier choice tests). These results suggest that female association preferences are good indicators of female mate choice but that ornament characteristics of the male are also important

The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.We thank all colleagues involved in the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS) for fruitful discussions. In particular, John Walsh is acknowledged for his constructive comments on the manuscript. AFS has been sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and the Cryosphere project (WCRP-CliC), the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). The work for this paper has been supported by the Academy of Finland (contracts 259537 and 283101), the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/J019585/1), the US National Science Foundation grant ARC-1023592 and the Program “Arctic” and the Basic Research Program of the Presidium Russian Academy of Sciences. NCAR is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. We gratefully acknowledge the project coordination and meeting support of Jenny Baeseman and Gwenaelle Hamon at the CliC International Project Office. No new data were applied in the manuscript. Data applied for Figures 2 and 3 are available from the JRA-55 archive at http://jra. kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en. html#usage

Seasonal Changes in Mood and Behavior Are Linked to Metabolic Syndrome

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major public health problem worldwide. Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor to the cardiovascular diseases. It has been reported that disruptions of the circadian clockwork are associated with and may predispose to metabolic syndrome. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 8028 individuals attended a nationwide health examination survey in Finland. Data were collected with a face-to-face interview at home and during an individual health status examination. The waist circumference, height, weight and blood pressure were measured and samples were taken for laboratory tests. Participants were assessed using the ATP-III criteria for metabolic syndrome and with the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire for their seasonal changes in mood and behavior. Seasonal changes in weight in particular were a risk factor of metabolic syndrome, after controlling for a number of known risk and potential confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Metabolic syndrome is associated with high global scores on the seasonal changes in mood and behavior, and with those in weight in particular. Assessment of these changes may serve as a useful indicator of metabolic syndrome, because of easy assessment. Abnormalities in the circadian clockwork which links seasonal fluctuations to metabolic cycles may predispose to seasonal changes in weight and to metabolic syndrome

Role of Plastid Protein Phosphatase TAP38 in LHCII Dephosphorylation and Thylakoid Electron Flow

Regulation of photosynthesis efficiency involves reversible phosphorylation of the light-harvesting complex through the activity of the newly identified phosphatase TAP38

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Frequently asked questions about chlorophyll fluorescence, the sequel

[EN] Using chlorophyll (Chl) a fluorescence many aspects of the photosynthetic apparatus can be studied, both in vitro and, noninvasively, in vivo. Complementary techniques can help to interpret changes in the Chl a fluorescence kinetics. Kalaji et al. (Photosynth Res 122: 121-158, 2014a) addressed several questions about instruments, methods and applications based on Chl a fluorescence. Here, additionalChl a fluorescence-related topics are discussed again in a question and answer format. Examples are the effect of connectivity on photochemical quenching, the correction of F-V/F-M values for PSI fluorescence, the energy partitioning concept, the interpretation of the complementary area, probing the donor side of PSII, the assignment of bands of 77 K fluorescence emission spectra to fluorescence emitters, the relationship between prompt and delayed fluorescence, potential problems when sampling tree canopies, the use of fluorescence parameters in QTL studies, the use of Chl a fluorescence in biosensor applications and the application of neural network approaches for the analysis of fluorescence measurements. The answers draw on knowledge fromdifferent Chl a fluorescence analysis domains, yielding in several cases new insights.Kalaji, H.; Schansker, G.; Brestic, M.; Bussotti, F.; Calatayud, A.; Ferroni, L.; Goltsev, V.... (2017). Frequently asked questions about chlorophyll fluorescence, the sequel. 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Stabilising selection on immune response in male black grouse Lyrurus tetrix

Illnesses caused by a variety of micro- and macro- organisms can negatively affect individuals’ fitness, leading to the expectation that immunity is under positive selection. However, immune responses are costly and individuals must trade-off their immune response with other fitness components (e.g. survival or reproductive success) meaning that individuals with intermediate response may have the greatest overall fitness. Such a process might be particularly acute in species with strong sexual selection because the condition-dependence of male secondary sexual-traits might lead to striking phenotypic differences amongst males of different immune response levels. We tested whether there is selection on immune response by survival and reproduction in yearling and adult male black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix) following an immune challenge with a novel antigen and tested the hypothesis that sexual signals and body mass are honest signals of the immune response. We show that yearling males with highest immune response to these challenges had higher survival, but the reverse was true for adults. Adults with higher responses had highest mass loss and adult males with intermediate immune response had highest mating success. Tail length was related to baseline response in adults and more weakly in yearlings. Our findings reveal the complex fitness consequences of mounting an immune response across age classes. Such major differences in the direction and magnitude of selection in multiple fitness components is an alternative route underpinning the stabilizing selection of immune responses with an intermediate immune response being optimal