A statistical network analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Cuba

The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light onto the spread of HIV and the role of contact-tracing. Clustering based on modularity optimization provides a better visualization and understanding of the network, in combination with the study of covariates. The graph has a globally low but heterogeneous density, with clusters of high intraconnectivity but low interconnectivity. Though descriptive, our results pave the way for incorporating structure when studying stochastic SIR epidemics spreading on social networks

A Cellular Automata Model for Citrus Variagated Chlorosis

A cellular automata model is proposed to analyze the progress of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics in S\~ao Paulo oranges plantation. In this model epidemiological and environmental features, such as motility of sharpshooter vectors which perform L\'evy flights, hydric and nutritional level of plant stress and seasonal climatic effects, are included. The observed epidemics data were quantitatively reproduced by the proposed model varying the parameters controlling vectors motility, plant stress and initial population of diseased plants.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, Scheduled tentatively for the issue of: 01Nov0

Virus Adaptation by Manipulation of Host's Gene Expression

Viruses adapt to their hosts by evading defense mechanisms and taking over cellular metabolism for their own benefit. Alterations in cell metabolism as well as side-effects of antiviral responses contribute to symptoms development and virulence. Sometimes, a virus may spill over from its usual host species into a novel one, where usually will fail to successfully infect and further transmit to new host. However, in some cases, the virus transmits and persists after fixing beneficial mutations that allow for a better exploitation of the new host. This situation would represent a case for a new emerging virus. Here we report results from an evolution experiment in which a plant virus was allowed to infect and evolve on a naïve host. After 17 serial passages, the viral genome has accumulated only five changes, three of which were non-synonymous. An amino acid substitution in the viral VPg protein was responsible for the appearance of symptoms, whereas one substitution in the viral P3 protein the epistatically contributed to exacerbate severity. DNA microarray analyses show that the evolved and ancestral viruses affect the global patterns of host gene expression in radically different ways. A major difference is that genes involved in stress and pathogen response are not activated upon infection with the evolved virus, suggesting that selection has favored viral strategies to escape from host defenses

Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all

BACKGROUND: Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an economic cost. Our aim is to study the costs and benefits of using individual-based social distancing undertaken by healthy individuals as a form of control.METHODS: Our model is a standard SIR model superimposed on a spatial network, without and with addition of small-world interactions. Disease spread is controlled by allowing susceptible individuals to temporarily reduce their social contacts in response to the presence of infection within their local neighbourhood. We ascribe an economic cost to the loss of social contacts, and weigh this against the economic benefit gained by reducing the impact of the epidemic. We study the sensitivity of the results to two key parameters, the individuals' attitude to risk and the size of the awareness neighbourhood.RESULTS: Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of making contacts versus avoiding infection, the optimal control is one of two extremes: either to adopt a highly cautious control, thereby suppressing the epidemic quickly by drastically reducing contacts as soon as disease is detected; or else to forego control and allow the epidemic to run its course. The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed. The next main result comes from comparing the size of the neighbourhood of which individuals are aware to that of the neighbourhood within which transmission can occur. The control works best when these sizes match and is particularly ineffective when the awareness neighbourhood is smaller than the infection neighbourhood. The results are robust with respect to inclusion of long-range, small-world links which destroy the spatial structure, regardless of whether individuals can or cannot control them. However, addition of many non-local links eventually makes control ineffective.CONCLUSIONS: These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing

Using combined diagnostic test results to hindcast trends of infection from cross-sectional data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to ‘hindcast’ (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time

The relationship between maternal education and mortality among women giving birth in health care institutions: Analysis of the cross sectional WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health

Background: Approximately one-third of a million women die each year from pregnancy-related conditions. Three-quarters of these deaths are considered avoidable. Millennium Development Goal five calls for a reduction in maternal mortality and the establishment of universal access to high quality reproductive health care. There is evidence of a relationship between lower levels of maternal education and higher maternal mortality. This study examines the relationship between maternal education and maternal mortality among women giving birth in health care institutions and investigates the association of maternal age, marital status, parity, institutional capacity and state-level investment in health care with these relationships.Methods: Cross-sectional information was collected on 287,035 inpatients giving birth in 373 health care institutions in 24 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, between 2004-2005 (in Africa and Latin America) and 2007-2008 (in Asia) as part of the WHO Global Survey on Maternal and Perinatal Health. Analyses investigated associations between indicators measured at the individual, institutional and country level and maternal mortality during the intrapartum period: from admission to, until discharge from, the institution where women gave birth. There were 363 maternal deaths.Results: In the adjusted models, women with no education had 2.7 times and those with between one and six years of education had twice the risk of maternal mortality of women with more than 12 years of education. Institutional capacity was not associated with maternal mortality in the adjusted model. Those not married or cohabiting had almost twice the risk of death of those who were. There was a significantly higher risk of death among those aged over 35 (compared with those aged between 20 and 25 years), those with higher numbers of previous births and lower levels of state investment in health care. There were also additional effects relating to country of residence which were not explained in the model.Conclusions: Lower levels of maternal education were associated with higher maternal mortality even amongst women able to access facilities providing intrapartum care. More attention should be given to the wider social determinants of health when devising strategies to reduce maternal mortality and to achieve the increasingly elusive MDG for maternal mortality

Comparative Proteomics Analysis of the Root Apoplasts of Rice Seedlings in Response to Hydrogen Peroxide

-responsive proteins in the apoplast of rice seedling roots. stress. response

Plant-Type Trehalose Synthetic Pathway in Cryptosporidium and Some Other Apicomplexans

The trehalose synthetic pathway is present in bacteria, fungi, plants and invertebrate animals, but is absent in vertebrates. This disaccharide mainly functions as a stress protectant against desiccation, heat, cold and oxidation. Genes involved in trehalose synthesis have been observed in apicomplexan parasites, but little was known about these enzymes. Study on trehalose synthesis in apicomplexans would not only shed new light into the evolution of this pathway, but also provide data for exploring this pathway as novel drug target.We have observed the presence of the trehalose synthetic pathway in Cryptosporidium and other apicomplexans and alveolates. Two key enzymes (trehalose 6-phosphate synthase [T6PS; EC 2.4.1.15] and trehalose phosphatase [TPase; EC 3.1.3.12] are present as Class II bifunctional proteins (T6PS-TPase) in the majority of apicomplexans with the exception of Plasmodium species. The enzyme for synthesizing the precursor (UDP-glucose) is homologous to dual-substrate UDP-galactose/glucose pyrophosphorylases (UGGPases), rather than the "classic" UDP-glucose pyrophosphorylase (UGPase). Phylogenetic recontructions indicate that both T6PS-TPases and UGGPases in apicomplexans and other alveolates are evolutionarily affiliated with stramenopiles and plants. The expression level of T6PS-TPase in C. parvum is highly elevated in the late intracellular developmental stage prior to or during the production of oocysts, implying that trehalose may be important in oocysts as a protectant against environmental stresses. Finally, trehalose has been detected in C. parvum oocysts, thus confirming the trehalose synthetic activity in this parasite.A trehalose synthetic pathway is described in the majority of apicomplexan parasites including Cryptosporidium and the presence of trehalose was confirmed in the C. parvum oocyst. Key enzymes in the pathway (i.e., T6PS-TPase and UGGPase) are plant-type and absent in humans and animals, and may potentially serve as novel drug targets in the apicomplexans

Approachability in Stackelberg Stochastic Games with Vector Costs

The notion of approachability was introduced by Blackwell [1] in the context of vector-valued repeated games. The famous Blackwell's approachability theorem prescribes a strategy for approachability, i.e., for `steering' the average cost of a given agent towards a given target set, irrespective of the strategies of the other agents. In this paper, motivated by the multi-objective optimization/decision making problems in dynamically changing environments, we address the approachability problem in Stackelberg stochastic games with vector valued cost functions. We make two main contributions. Firstly, we give a simple and computationally tractable strategy for approachability for Stackelberg stochastic games along the lines of Blackwell's. Secondly, we give a reinforcement learning algorithm for learning the approachable strategy when the transition kernel is unknown. We also recover as a by-product Blackwell's necessary and sufficient condition for approachability for convex sets in this set up and thus a complete characterization. We also give sufficient conditions for non-convex sets.Comment: 18 Pages, Submitted to Dynamic Games and Application