Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation

Increased masticatory activity and quality of life in elderly persons with dementia-a longitudinal matched cluster randomized single-blind multicenter intervention study.

Background: Worldwide, millions of people are suffering from dementia and this number is rising. An index of quality of life (QoL) can describe the impact a disease or treatment has on a person's wellbeing. QoL comprises many variables, including physical health and function, and mental health and function. QoL is related to masticatory ability and physical activity. Animal studies show that disruption of mastication due to loss of teeth or a soft diet leads to memory loss and learning problems. Since these are common complaints in dementia, it is hypothesized that improvement of masticatory function and normalization of diet consistency can increase QoL in elderly persons suffering from dementia. Therefore, the goal of the present study is to examine whether an increase in masticatory activity, achieved by increased food consistency and enhancement of masticatory function through improved oral health care has a positive effect on QoL, including cognition, mood, activities of daily living (ADL), and circadian rhythm in elderly persons with dementia.Methods and design: The described study is a prospective longitudinal matched cluster randomized single-blind multicenter study. Participants are elderly persons living in the Netherlands, suffering from dementia and receiving psychogeriatric care. An intervention group will receive improved oral health care and a diet of increased consistency. A control group receives care as usual. Participants will be assessed four times; outcome variables besides QoL are cognition, mood, independence, rest-activity rhythm, blood pressure, and masticatory function.Discussion: This research protocol investigates the effect of an intervention executed by daily caregivers. The intervention will increase masticatory activity, which is achieved by three different actions, (providing oral health care, increasing food consistency, or a combination of both). There is a certain amount of variety in the nature of the interventions due to local differences in nursing homes. This might be a scientific weakness in the study design; however, a practical implementation of any findings will be subject to the same factors, making this study design clinically relevant.Trial registration: NTR1561. © 2013 Weijenberg et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Immune cell counts and risks of respiratory infections among infants exposed pre- and postnatally to organochlorine compounds: a prospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early-life chemical exposure may influence immune system development, subsequently affecting child health. We investigated immunomodulatory potentials of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE in infants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prenatal exposure to PCBs and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE was estimated from maternal serum concentrations during pregnancy. Postnatal exposure was calculated from concentrations of the compounds in mother's milk, total number of nursing days, and percentage of full nursing each week during the 3 month nursing period. Number and types of infections among infants were registered by the mothers (N = 190). White blood cell counts (N = 86) and lymphocyte subsets (N = 52) were analyzed in a subgroup of infants at 3 months of age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Infants with the highest prenatal exposure to PCB congeners CB-28, CB-52 and CB-101 had an increased risk of respiratory infection during the study period. In contrast, the infection odds ratios (ORs) were highest among infants with the lowest prenatal mono-<it>ortho </it>PCB (CB-105, CB-118, CB-156, CB-167) and di-<it>ortho </it>PCB (CB-138, CB-153, CB-180) exposure, and postnatal mono- and di-<it>ortho </it>PCB, and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE exposure. Similar results were found for pre- and postnatal CB-153 exposure, a good marker for total PCB exposure. Altogether, a negative relationship was indicated between infections and total organochlorine compound exposure during the whole pre- and postnatal period. Prenatal exposure to CB-28, CB-52 and CB-101 was positively associated with numbers of lymphocytes and monocytes in infants 3 months after delivery. Prenatal exposure to <it>p,p'</it>-DDE was negatively associated with the percentage of eosinophils. No significant associations were found between PCB and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE exposure and numbers/percentages of lymphocyte subsets, after adjustment for potential confounders.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This hypothesis generating study suggests that background exposure to PCBs and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE early in life modulate immune system development. Strong correlations between mono- and di-<it>ortho </it>PCBs, and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE exposures make it difficult to identify the most important contributor to the suggested immunomodulation, and to separate effects due to pre- and postnatal exposure. The suggested PCB and <it>p,p'</it>-DDE modulation of infection risks may have consequences for the health development during childhood, since respiratory infections early in life may be risk factors for asthma and middle ear infections.</p

Exploring the views of being a proxy from the perspective of unpaid carers and paid carers: developing a proxy version of the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit (ASCOT)

Background: Outcomes-based policy and administration of public services present a compelling argument for the value of outcomes data. However, there are a number of challenges inherent in collecting these data from people who are unable to complete a paper-based survey or interview due to cognitive or communication impairments. In this paper, we explore the views of being a proxy from the perspective of unpaid carers and paid carers who may be asked to act as a proxy on behalf of the person(s) they care for. We consider the key issues that need to be addressed when adapting an instrument designed to measure social care outcomes, the Adult Social Care Outcomes Tool (ASCOT), into a proxy-report tool. Methods: Participants took part in either a focus group (35 paid carers in eight focus groups), or a one-to-one interview (eight unpaid carers). All participants were recruited via carer organisations and care providers. Transcripts, field notes and audio data collected during focus groups and interviews were analysed using a thematic framework approach. Results: Participants agreed that any person acting as a proxy would need to be very familiar with the care recipient, as well as their needs and care provision. A number of provisions for proxy respondents were proposed to improve face validity and acceptability of completing a questionnaire by proxy, and to ensure that any potential bias is reduced in the design of the questionnaire. These included: providing two sets of response options for each proxy perspective (the proxy themselves and the proxy view of how they think the care recipient would respond); a comments box to help people explain why they have selected a given response option (especially where these indicate unmet need); and providing clear guidance for the proxy respondent on how they should complete the questionnaire. Conclusions: This study has shown some of the challenges involved in assessing outcomes by proxy and explored some potential ways these can be mitigated. The findings highlight the benefits of developing and testing proxy measures in a robust way to widen participation in social care research