The Probability of Data’s Inherent Sexiness: A Review of Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data

Charles Wheelan’s Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data (2013) reintroduces the field of statistics to the apathetic reader in an approachable and sympathetic way. By focusing on the acquisition of appreciation for the field over straightforward comprehension, Wheelan is able to achieve what many qualitative researchers have striven for in reintroducing the field to those thought previously lost

Monitoring Global Freshwater Resources with GRACE

Freshwater resources include surface waters, groundwater, and seasonal snowpack. Given adequate ground based measurements, all of these can be monitored effectively, however, outside of the developed world such measurements often are not systematic and the data not centralized, and as a result reports of freshwater availability may be largely anecdotal. Even in the developed world it can be difficult to quantify changes in groundwater storage over large scales. Owing to its global coverage, satellite remote sensing has become a valuable tool for freshwater resources assessment. In particular, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has demonstrated an unequaled ability to monitor total terrestrial water storage including groundwater at regional to continental scales. In this presentation we will identify apparent trends in terrestrial water storage observed by GRACE over the past nine years and attempt to explain their origins and predict whether they are likely to continue. Trends in certain regions where groundwater extraction has significantly depleted aquifers, including northern India and California, will be discussed in detail

Ground subsidence effects on simulating dynamic high-latitude surface inundation under permafrost thaw using CLM5

Simulating surface inundation is particularly challenging for the high-latitude permafrost regions. Ice-rich permafrost thaw can create expanding thermokarst lakes as well as shrinking large wetlands. Such processes can have major biogeochemical implications and feedbacks to the climate system by altering the pathways and rates of permafrost carbon release. However, the processes associated with it havenot yet been properly represented in Earth system models. We show a new model parameterization that allows direct representation of surface water dynamics in CLM (Community Land Model), the land surface model of several Earth System Models. Specifically, we coupled permafrost-thaw-induced ground subsidence and surface microtopography distribution to represent surface water dynamics in the high latitudes. Our results show increased surface water fractions around western Siberian plains and northeastern territories of Canada. Additionally, localized drainage events correspond well to severe ground subsidence events. Our parameterization is one of the first steps towards a process-oriented repre-sentation of surface hydrology, which is crucial to assess the biogeochemical feedbacks between land and the atmosphere under changing climat

Biomass heat storage dampens diurnal temperature variations in forests

Observational evidence suggests that compared to non-forested areas, forests have a cooling effect on daytime land surface temperature (LST) and a warming effect on nighttime LST in many regions of the world, thus implying that forests dampen the diurnal temperature range. This feature is not captured by current climate models. Using the Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5.0), we show that this diurnal behavior can be captured when accounting for biomass heat storage (BHS). The nighttime release of energy absorbed by the vegetation biomass during the day increases both nighttime LST and ambient air temperature in forested regions by more than 1 K. The daytime cooling is weaker than the nighttime warming effect, because the energy uptake by the biomass is compensated by a reduction in the turbulent heat fluxes during day. This diurnal asymmetry of the temperature response to BHS leads to a warming of daily mean temperatures, which is amplified during boreal summer warm extremes. Compared to MODIS, CLM5.0 overestimates the diurnal LST range over forested areas. The inclusion of BHS reduces this bias due to its dampening effect on diurnal LST variations. Further, BHS attenuates the negative bias in the nighttime LST difference of forest minus grassland and cropland, when compared to MODIS observations. These results indicate that it is essential to consider BHS when examining the influence of forests on diurnal temperature variations. BHS should thus be included in land surface models used to assess the climatic consequences of land use changes such as deforestation or afforestation

The Impact of Biomass Heat Storage on the Canopy Energy Balance and Atmospheric Stability in the Community Land Model

Atmospheric models used for weather prediction and future climate projections rely on land models to calculate surface boundary conditions. Observations of near‐surface states and fluxes made at flux measurement sites provide valuable data with which to assess the quality of simulated lower boundary conditions. A previous assessment of the Community Land Model version 4.5 using data from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux tower showed that simulated latent heat fluxes could be improved by adjusting a parameter describing the maximum leaf wetted area, but biases in midday sensible heat flux and nighttime momentum flux were generally not reduced by model parameter perturbations. These biases are related to the model's lack of heat storage in vegetation biomass. A biomass heat capacity is parameterized in Community Land Model version 5 with measurable quantities such as canopy height, diameter at breast height, and tree number density. After implementing a parameterization describing the heat transfer between the forest biomass and the canopy air space, the biases in the mean midday sensible heat and mean nighttime momentum fluxes at Niwot Ridge are reduced from 47 to 13 W/m2 and from 0.12 to &minus;0.03 m/s, respectively. The bias in the mean nighttime canopy air temperature was reduced from &minus;5.9 to 0.4 &deg;C. Additional simulations at other flux tower sites demonstrate a consistent reduction in midday sensible heat flux, a lower ratio of the sum of sensible and latent heat flux to net radiation, and an increase in nighttime canopy temperatures.</p

Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region

In this study, we use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to evaluate freshwater storage trends in the north-central Middle East, including portions of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran, from January 2003 to December 2009. GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage of approximately -27.2 plus or minus 0.6 millimeters per year equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 143.6 cubic kimometers during the course of the study period. Additional remote-sensing information and output from land surface models were used to identify that groundwater losses are the major source of this trend. The approach used in this study provides an example of ''best current capabilities'' in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited. Results indicate that the region lost 17.3 plus or minus 2.1 millimeters per year equivalent water height of groundwater during the study period, or 91.3 plus or minus 10.9 cubic kilometers in volume. Furthermore, results raise important issues regarding water use in transboundary river basins and aquifers, including the necessity of international water use treaties and resolving discrepancies in international water law, while amplifying the need for increased monitoring for core components of the water budget

Implementation and Evaluation of Irrigation Techniques in the Community Land Model

Several previous studies have highlighted the irrigation-induced impacts on the global and regional water cycle, energy budget, and near-surface climate. While land models are widely used to address this question, the implementations of irrigation in these models vary in complexity. Here, we expand the representation of irrigation in Community Land Model to enable six different irrigation methods. We find that using a combination of irrigation methods, including default, sprinkler, flood and paddy techniques performs best as determined by evaluating the simulated irrigation water withdrawals against observations, and therefore select this combination as the new irrigation scheme. Then, the impact of the new irrigation scheme on surface fluxes is evaluated and detected using single-point simulations. Finally, the global and regional irrigation-induced impacts on surface energy and water fluxes are compared using both the original and the new irrigation scheme. The new irrigation scheme substantially reduces the bias and root-mean-square error of simulated irrigation water withdrawal in the USA and other countries, but considerably overestimates withdrawals in Central China. Results of single-point experiments show that different irrigation methods have different effects on surface fluxes, while the magnitudes are small. At the global scale, the new scheme enlarges the irrigation-induced impacts on water and energy variables relative to the original scheme, with varying magnitudes across regions. Overall, our results suggest that this newly developed scheme is a better tool for simulating irrigation-induced impacts on climate, and highlight the added value of incorporating human water management in Earth system models

Results of external quality assessment for proviral DNA testing of HIV tropism in the Maraviroc switch collaborative study

The Maraviroc Switch collaborative study (MARCH) is a study in aviremic patients on stable antiretroviral therapy and utilizes population-based sequencing of proviral DNA to determine HIV tropism and susceptibility to maraviroc. An external quality assessment (EQA) program was implemented to ensure competency in assessing the tropism of clinical samples conducted by MARCH laboratories (n = 14). The MARCH EQA has three prestudy phases assessing V3 loop sequencing and tropism determination using the bioinformatic algorithm geno2pheno, which generates a false-positive rate (FPR). DNA sequences with low FPRs are more likely to be from CXCR4-using (X4) viruses. Phase 1 of the EQA involved chromatogram interpretation. Phases 2, 2/3, and 3 involved patient and clonal samples. Clinical samples used in these phases were from treatment-experienced HIVinfected volunteers; 18/20 had viral loads o

Infiltration from the pedon to global grid scales: an overview and outlook for land surface modelling

Infiltration in soils is a key process that partitions precipitation at the land surface in surface runoff and water that enters the soil profile. We reviewed the basic principles of water infiltration in soils and we analyzed approaches commonly used in Land Surface Models (LSMs) to quantify infiltration as well as its numerical implementation and sensitivity to model parameters. We reviewed methods to upscale infiltration from the point to the field, hill slope, and grid cell scale of LSMs. Despite the progress that has been made, upscaling of local scale infiltration processes to the grid scale used in LSMs is still far from being treated rigorously. We still lack a consistent theoretical framework to predict effective fluxes and parameters that control infiltration in LSMs. Our analysis shows, that there is a large variety in approaches used to estimate soil hydraulic properties. Novel, highly resolved soil information at higher resolutions than the grid scale of LSMs may help in better quantifying subgrid variability of key infiltration parameters. Currently, only a few land surface models consider the impact of soil structure on soil hydraulic properties. Finally, we identified several processes not yet considered in LSMs that are known to strongly influence infiltration. Especially, the impact of soil structure on infiltration requires further research. In order to tackle the above challenges and integrate current knowledge on soil processes affecting infiltration processes on land surface models, we advocate a stronger exchange and scientific interaction between the soil and the land surface modelling communities