‘Shift happens’: Co-constructing transition pathways towards the regional sustainability of agriculture in Europe

Farming systems have to face challenges that originate in changes of global dimension in both the bio-physical and the societal sphere, such as Climate change (leading to increasing weather uncertainty and raising average temperatures, thus impacting agro-ecosystems and water supplies); Food safety concerns (spreading in Europe while in other regions food security remains a challenge) and Changing consumption patterns and unequal purchasing power (contributing to the unsustainable use of natural resources in many countries). These changes have manifold implications and raise many questions with regard to agricultural land use

Selective Whole-Genome Amplification Is a Robust Method That Enables Scalable Whole-Genome Sequencing of Plasmodium vivax from Unprocessed Clinical Samples.

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of microbial pathogens from clinical samples is a highly sensitive tool used to gain a deeper understanding of the biology, epidemiology, and drug resistance mechanisms of many infections. However, WGS of organisms which exhibit low densities in their hosts is challenging due to high levels of host genomic DNA (gDNA), which leads to very low coverage of the microbial genome. WGS of Plasmodium vivax, the most widely distributed form of malaria, is especially difficult because of low parasite densities and the lack of an ex vivo culture system. Current techniques used to enrich P. vivax DNA from clinical samples require significant resources or are not consistently effective. Here, we demonstrate that selective whole-genome amplification (SWGA) can enrich P. vivax gDNA from unprocessed human blood samples and dried blood spots for high-quality WGS, allowing genetic characterization of isolates that would otherwise have been prohibitively expensive or impossible to sequence. We achieved an average genome coverage of 24×, with up to 95% of the P. vivax core genome covered by ≥5 reads. The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) characteristics and drug resistance mutations seen were consistent with those of other P. vivax sequences from a similar region in Peru, demonstrating that SWGA produces high-quality sequences for downstream analysis. SWGA is a robust tool that will enable efficient, cost-effective WGS of P. vivax isolates from clinical samples that can be applied to other neglected microbial pathogens. IMPORTANCE: Malaria is a disease caused by Plasmodium parasites that caused 214 million symptomatic cases and 438,000 deaths in 2015. Plasmodium vivax is the most widely distributed species, causing the majority of malaria infections outside sub-Saharan Africa. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Plasmodium parasites from clinical samples has revealed important insights into the epidemiology and mechanisms of drug resistance of malaria. However, WGS of P. vivax is challenging due to low parasite levels in humans and the lack of a routine system to culture the parasites. Selective whole-genome amplification (SWGA) preferentially amplifies the genomes of pathogens from mixtures of target and host gDNA. Here, we demonstrate that SWGA is a simple, robust method that can be used to enrich P. vivax genomic DNA (gDNA) from unprocessed human blood samples and dried blood spots for cost-effective, high-quality WGS

Scenario planning: the future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government

Development and initial testing of a computer-based patient decision aid to promote colorectal cancer screening for primary care practice

BACKGROUND: Although colorectal cancer screening is recommended by major policy-making organizations, rates of screening remain low. Our aim was to develop a patient-directed, computer-based decision aid about colorectal cancer screening and investigate whether it could increase patient interest in screening. METHODS: We used content from evidence-based literature reviews and our previous decision aid research to develop a prototype. We performed two rounds of usability testing with representative patients to revise the content and format. The final decision aid consisted of an introductory segment, four test-specific segments, and information to allow comparison of the tests across several key parameters. We then conducted a before-after uncontrolled trial of 80 patients 50–75 years old recruited from an academic internal medicine practice. RESULTS: Mean viewing time was 19 minutes. The decision aid improved patients' intent to ask providers for screening from a mean score of 2.8 (1 = not at all likely to ask, 4 = very likely to ask) before viewing the decision aid to 3.2 afterwards (difference, 0.4; p < 0.0001, paired t-test). Most found the aid useful and reported that it improved their knowledge about screening. Sixty percent said they were ready to be tested, 18% needed more information, and 22% were not ready to be screened. Within 6 months of viewing, 43% of patients had completed screening tests. CONCLUSION: We conclude that a computer-based decision aid can increase patient intent to be screened and increase interest in screening. Practice Implications: This decision aid can be viewed by patients prior to provider appointments to increase motivation to be screened and to help them decide about which modality to use for screening. Further work is required to integrate the decision aid with other practice change strategies to raise screening rates to target levels

Ontogeny of Toll-Like Receptor Mediated Cytokine Responses of Human Blood Mononuclear Cells

Newborns and young infants suffer increased infectious morbidity and mortality as compared to older children and adults. Morbidity and mortality due to infection are highest during the first weeks of life, decreasing over several years. Furthermore, most vaccines are not administered around birth, but over the first few years of life. A more complete understanding of the ontogeny of the immune system over the first years of life is thus urgently needed. Here, we applied the most comprehensive analysis focused on the innate immune response following TLR stimulation over the first 2 years of life in the largest such longitudinal cohort studied to-date (35 subjects). We found that innate TLR responses (i) known to support Th17 adaptive immune responses (IL-23, IL-6) peaked around birth and declined over the following 2 years only to increase again by adulthood; (ii) potentially supporting antiviral defense (IFN-α) reached adult level function by 1 year of age; (iii) known to support Th1 type immunity (IL-12p70, IFN-γ) slowly rose from a low at birth but remained far below adult responses even at 2 years of age; (iv) inducing IL-10 production steadily declined from a high around birth to adult levels by 1 or 2 years of age, and; (v) leading to production of TNF-α or IL-1β varied by stimuli. Our data contradict the notion of a linear progression from an ‘immature’ neonatal to a ‘mature’ adult pattern, but instead indicate the existence of qualitative and quantitative age-specific changes in innate immune reactivity in response to TLR stimulation

Scenario planning as communicative action: lessons from participatory exercises conducted for the Scottish livestock industry

AbstractBased on Habermas' Theory of Communicative Action, this paper critiques the transparency and legitimacy of participatory scenario planning, considering a case study of scenario development for the livestock industry within Scotland. The paper considers the extent to which the case study approximates the conditions for ‘ideal speech situations’ and how these conditions could be applied more widely in participatory scenario planning. The authors explore the rationale for participatory scenario planning within the science–policy interface with critical reference to the corporate context in which scenario planning has evolved. The aim is to optimise the potential for its use in the context of socio-technical and environmental governance. Researcher co-reflections on the case study are mapped within a matrix of indices representing conditions for ideal speech situations. Further analytical categories highlight the extent to which ideal speech was approximated. Although many of the constraints on achieving ideal speech situations reflect intransigent, practical logistics of organising participatory exercises, our novel approach enables the systematic identification of some important issues and provides a conceptual framework for understanding how they interrelate that may prove useful to practitioners and theorists alike

Expansion of the Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) knowledge base and resources.

The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO)-a standardized vocabulary of phenotypic abnormalities associated with 7000+ diseases-is used by thousands of researchers, clinicians, informaticians and electronic health record systems around the world. Its detailed descriptions of clinical abnormalities and computable disease definitions have made HPO the de facto standard for deep phenotyping in the field of rare disease. The HPO\u27s interoperability with other ontologies has enabled it to be used to improve diagnostic accuracy by incorporating model organism data. It also plays a key role in the popular Exomiser tool, which identifies potential disease-causing variants from whole-exome or whole-genome sequencing data. Since the HPO was first introduced in 2008, its users have become both more numerous and more diverse. To meet these emerging needs, the project has added new content, language translations, mappings and computational tooling, as well as integrations with external community data. The HPO continues to collaborate with clinical adopters to improve specific areas of the ontology and extend standardized disease descriptions. The newly redesigned HPO website (www.human-phenotype-ontology.org) simplifies browsing terms and exploring clinical features, diseases, and human genes

Health, education, and social care provision after diagnosis of childhood visual disability

Aim: To investigate the health, education, and social care provision for children newly diagnosed with visual disability.Method: This was a national prospective study, the British Childhood Visual Impairment and Blindness Study 2 (BCVIS2), ascertaining new diagnoses of visual impairment or severe visual impairment and blindness (SVIBL), or equivalent vi-sion. Data collection was performed by managing clinicians up to 1-year follow-up, and included health and developmental needs, and health, education, and social care provision.Results: BCVIS2 identified 784 children newly diagnosed with visual impairment/SVIBL (313 with visual impairment, 471 with SVIBL). Most children had associated systemic disorders (559 [71%], 167 [54%] with visual impairment, and 392 [84%] with SVIBL). Care from multidisciplinary teams was provided for 549 children (70%). Two-thirds (515) had not received an Education, Health, and Care Plan (EHCP). Fewer children with visual impairment had seen a specialist teacher (SVIBL 35%, visual impairment 28%, χ2p < 0.001), or had an EHCP (11% vs 7%, χ2p < 0 . 01).Interpretation: Families need additional support from managing clinicians to access recommended complex interventions such as the use of multidisciplinary teams and educational support. This need is pressing, as the population of children with visual impairment/SVIBL is expected to grow in size and complexity.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous