A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum

A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1a. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community

Common knowledge, salience and convention:A reconstruction of David Lewis' game theory

David Lewis is widely credited with the first formulation of common knowledge and the first rigorous analysis of convention. However, common knowledge and convention entered mainstream game theory only when they were formulated, later and independently, by other theorists. As a result, some of the most distinctive and valuable features of Lewis' game theory have been overlooked. We re-examine this theory by reconstructing key parts in a more formal way, extending it, and showing how it differs from more recent game theory. In contrast to current theories of common knowledge, Lewis' theory is based on an explicit analysis of the modes of reasoning that are accessible to rational individuals and so can be used to analyse the genesis of common knowledge. Lewis' analysis of convention emphasises the role of inductive reasoning and of salience in the maintenance of conventions over time

Dynamic Decision-Making under Uncertainty:An Experimental Investigation of Choices between Accumulator Gambles

This paper presents an experiment that is designed to be more effective than previous studies at reproducing in the laboratory the affective experiences of risk-taking, such as hope, fear, thrill, pain of loss, regret, disappointment or elation. The use of dynamic choice problems involving accumulator gambles, and a particular randomisation device to resolve them, are central to the design. Our results both are inconsistent with orthodox dynamic choice theory and cast doubt on the generality of effects observed in previous designs. We discuss these findings, in terms of the relative impacts on behaviour of affective experience and judgement

Chao's list sequential scheme for unequal probability sampling.

The problem of unequal probability sampling is reviewed and discussed in the light of the list sequential scheme proposed by Chao. Chao's scheme is described fully, and its statistical properties are compared with systematic piPS sampling by simulation using standard populations

The selection of preferences through imitation

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.7765(UEA-ERC-DP--9609) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Games and decisions

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:3597.7765(UEA-ERC-DP--9408) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Rationally justifiable play and the theory of noncooperative games

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:3597.7765(UEA-ERC-DP--9123) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Dynamic choice and the common ratio effect An experimental investigation

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:3597.7765(UEA-ERC-DP--9510) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

On the validity of the random lottery incentive system

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.7765(9616) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo