The ghosts of forests past and future : deforestation and botanical sampling in the Brazilian Amazon

The remarkable biodiversity of the Brazilian Amazon is poorly documented and threatened by deforestation. When undocumented areas become deforested, in addition to losing the fauna and flora, we lose the opportunity to know which unique species had occupied a habitat. Here we quantify such knowledge loss by calculating how much of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested and will likely be deforested until 2050 without having its tree flora sufficiently documented. To this end, we analysed 399 147 digital specimens of nearly 6000 tree species in relation to official deforestation statistics and future deforestation scenarios. We find that by 2017, 30% of all the localities where tree specimens had been collected were mostly deforested. Some 300 000 km(2)(12%; 485 25 x 25 km grid cells) of the Brazilian Amazon had been deforested by 2017, without having a single tree specimen recorded. An additional 250 000-900 000 km(2)of severely under-collected rainforest will likely become deforested by 2050. If future tree sampling is to cover this area, sampling effort has to increase two- to six-fold. Nearly 255 000 km(2)or 7% of rainforest in the Brazilian Amazon is easily accessible but does yet but remain under-collected. Our study highlights how progressing deforestation increases the risk of losing undocumented species of a hyper-diverse tree flora.Peer reviewe

Methods to estimate aboveground wood productivity from long-term forest inventory plots

Forest inventory plots are widely used to estimate biomass carbon storage and its change over time. While there has been much debate and exploration of the analytical methods for calculating biomass, the methods used to determine rates of wood production have not been evaluated to the same degree. This affects assessment of ecosystem fluxes and may have wider implications if inventory data are used to parameterise biospheric models, or scaled to large areas in assessments of carbon sequestration. Here we use a dataset of 35 long-term Amazonian forest inventory plots to test different methods of calculating wood production rates. These address potential biases associated with three issues that routinely impact the interpretation of tree measurement data: (1) changes in the point of measurement (POM) of stem diameter as trees grow over time; (2) unequal length of time between censuses; and (3) the treatment of trees that pass the minimum diameter threshold (“recruits”). We derive corrections that control for changing POM height, that account for the unobserved growth of trees that die within census intervals, and that explore different assumptions regarding the growth of recruits during the previous census interval. For our dataset we find that annual aboveground coarse wood production (AGWP; in Mg ha−1 year−1 of dry matter) is underestimated on average by 9.2% if corrections are not made to control for changes in POM height. Failure to control for the length of sampling intervals results in a mean underestimation of 2.7% in annual AGWP in our plots for a mean interval length of 3.6 years. Different methods for treating recruits result in mean differences of up to 8.1% in AGWP. In general, the greater the length of time a plot is sampled for and the greater the time elapsed between censuses, the greater the tendency to underestimate wood production. We recommend that POM changes, census interval length, and the contribution of recruits should all be accounted for when estimating productivity rates, and suggest methods for doing this.European UnionUK Natural Environment Research CouncilGordon and Betty Moore FoundationCASE sponsorship from UNEP-WCMCRoyal Society University Research FellowshipERC Advanced Grant “Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System”Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Awar

Влияние недропользования на социально-экономическое развитие Томской области

Анализ влияния деятельности нефтегазового комплекса на социально-экономическое развитие Томской области.Analysis of the impact of the oil and gas industry on the social and economic development of the Tomsk region

Macroecological links between the Linnean, Wallacean, and Darwinian shortfalls

Species are the currency of most biodiversity studies. However, many shortfalls and biases remain in our biodiversity estimates, preventing a comprehensive understanding of the eco-evolutionary processes that have shaped the biodiversity currently available on Earth. Biased biodiversity estimates also jeopardize the effective implementation of data-driven conservation strategies, ultimately leading to biodiversity loss. Here, we delve into the concept of the Latitudinal Taxonomy Gradient (LTG) and show how this new idea provides an interesting conceptual link between the Linnean (i.e., our ignorance of how many species there are on Earth), Darwinian (i.e., our ignorance of species evolutionary relationships), and Wallacean (i.e., our ignorance on species distribution) shortfalls. More specifically, we contribute to an improved understanding of LTGs and establish the basis for the development of new methods that allow us to: (i) better account for the integration between different shortfalls and, (ii) estimate how these interactions may affect our understanding about the evolutionary components of richness gradients at macroecological scales.This manuscript is partially derived from a working group on “Biodiversity Shortfalls” held in November 2019 and sponsored by the National Institutes for Science and Technology (INCT) in Ecology, Evolution, and Biodiversity Conservation (CNPq proc. 465610/2014-5 and FAPEG proc. 201810267000023). JJMG and LEF are supported by Ph.D. and M.Sc. scholarships from CAPES, while LM and RBP are supported by postdoctoral fellowships from CAPES (PNPD). JS was funded by the funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action (grant agreement #843234; project: TAXON-TIME) and by the Spanish Council for Scientific Research (IF_ERC). GT and LJ are supported by a DTI fellowships from CNPq, while JAFD-F, LGL, and CJBC are supported by Productivity Grants from CNPq.Peer reviewe

Relationships between species richness and ecosystem services in Amazonian forests strongly influenced by biogeographical strata and forest types

Despite increasing attention for relationships between species richness and ecosystem services, for tropical forests such relationships are still under discussion. Contradicting relationships have been reported concerning carbon stock, while little is known about relationships concerning timber stock and the abundance of non-timber forest product producing plant species (NTFP abundance). Using 151 1-ha plots, we related tree and arborescent palm species richness to carbon stock, timber stock and NTFP abundance across the Guiana Shield, and using 283 1-ha plots, to carbon stock across all of Amazonia. We analysed how environmental heterogeneity influenced these relationships, assessing differences across and within multiple forest types, biogeographic regions and subregions. Species richness showed significant relationships with all three ecosystem services, but relationships differed between forest types and among biogeographical strata. We found that species richness was positively associated to carbon stock in all biogeographical strata. This association became obscured by variation across biogeographical regions at the scale of Amazonia, resembling a Simpson’s paradox. By contrast, species richness was weakly or not significantly related to timber stock and NTFP abundance, suggesting that species richness is not a good predictor for these ecosystem services. Our findings illustrate the importance of environmental stratification in analysing biodiversity-ecosystem services relationships

Seasonal drought limits tree species across the Neotropics

Within the tropics, the species richness of tree communities is strongly and positively associated with precipitation. Previous research has suggested that this macroecological pattern is driven by the negative effect of water-stress on the physiological processes of most tree species. This process implies that the range limits of taxa are defined by their ability to occur under dry conditions, and thus in terms of species distributions it predicts a nested pattern of taxa distribution from wet to dry areas. However, this ‘dry-tolerance’ hypothesis has yet to be adequately tested at large spatial and taxonomic scales. Here, using a dataset of 531 inventory plots of closed canopy forest distributed across the Western Neotropics we investigated how precipitation, evaluated both as mean annual precipitation and as the maximum climatological water deficit, influences the distribution of tropical tree species, genera and families. We find that the distributions of tree taxa are indeed nested along precipitation gradients in the western Neotropics. Taxa tolerant to seasonal drought are disproportionally widespread across the precipitation gradient, with most reaching even the wettest climates sampled; however, most taxa analysed are restricted to wet areas. Our results suggest that the ‘dry tolerance’ hypothesis has broad applicability in the world's most species-rich forests. In addition, the large number of species restricted to wetter conditions strongly indicates that an increased frequency of drought could severely threaten biodiversity in this region. Overall, this study establishes a baseline for exploring how tropical forest tree composition may change in response to current and future environmental changes in this region

Seasonal drought limits tree species across the Neotropics

AcceptedArticle in Press© 2016 Nordic Society Oikos.Within the tropics, the species richness of tree communities is strongly and positively associated with precipitation. Previous research has suggested that this macroecological pattern is driven by the negative effect of water-stress on the physiological processes of most tree species. This implies that the range limits of taxa are defined by their ability to occur under dry conditions, and thus in terms of species distributions predicts a nested pattern of taxa distribution from wet to dry areas. However, this 'dry-tolerance' hypothesis has yet to be adequately tested at large spatial and taxonomic scales. Here, using a dataset of 531 inventory plots of closed canopy forest distributed across the western Neotropics we investigated how precipitation, evaluated both as mean annual precipitation and as the maximum climatological water deficit, influences the distribution of tropical tree species, genera and families. We find that the distributions of tree taxa are indeed nested along precipitation gradients in the western Neotropics. Taxa tolerant to seasonal drought are disproportionally widespread across the precipitation gradient, with most reaching even the wettest climates sampled; however, most taxa analysed are restricted to wet areas. Our results suggest that the 'dry tolerance' hypothesis has broad applicability in the world's most species-rich forests. In addition, the large number of species restricted to wetter conditions strongly indicates that an increased frequency of drought could severely threaten biodiversity in this region. Overall, this study establishes a baseline for exploring how tropical forest tree composition may change in response to current and future environmental changes in this region.This paper is a product of the RAINFOR and ATDN networks and of ForestPlots.net researchers (http://www.forestplots.net). RAINFOR and ForestPlots have been supported by a Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation grant, the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (283080, ‘GEOCARBON’; 282664, ‘AMAZALERT’); European Research Council (ERC) grant ‘Tropical Forests in the Changing Earth System’ (T-FORCES), and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Urgency Grant and NERC Consortium Grants ‘AMAZONICA’ (NE/F005806/1) and ‘TROBIT’ (NE/D005590/1). Additional funding for fieldwork was provided by Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network, a collaboration among Conservation International, the Missouri Botanical Garden, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Wildlife Conservation Society. A.E.M. receives a PhD scholarship from the T-FORCES ERC grant. O.L.P. is supported by an ERC Advanced Grant and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. We thank Jon J. Lloyd, Chronis Tzedakis, David Galbraith, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and Dylan Young for helping with the analyses. This study would not be possible without the extensive contributions of numerous field assistants and rural communities in the Neotropical forests. Alfredo Alarcón, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Plínio Barbosa Camargo, Juan Carlos Licona, Alvaro Cogollo, Massiel Corrales Medina, Jose Daniel Soto, Gloria Gutierrez, Nestor Jaramillo Jarama, Laura Jessica Viscarra, Irina Mendoza Polo, Alexander Parada Gutierrez, Guido Pardo, Lourens Poorter, Adriana Prieto, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Agustín Rudas, Rebeca Sibler and Javier Silva Espejo additionally contributed data to this study though their RAINFOR participations. We further thank those colleagues no longer with us, Jean Pierre Veillon, Samuel Almeida, Sandra Patiño and Raimundo Saraiva. Many data come from Alwyn Gentry, whose example has inspired new generations to investigate the diversity of the Neotropics

Tree height integrated into pantropical forest biomass estimates

Copyright © 2012 European Geosciences Union. This is the published version available at http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/3381/2012/bg-9-3381-2012.htmlAboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- and Weibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (≤40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8 Mg ha−1 (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0 Mg ha−1 (−2.5 to 23.0). For all plots, aboveground live biomass was −52.2 Mg ha−1 (−82.0 to −20.3 bootstrapped 95% CI), or 13%, lower when including H estimates, with the greatest relative reductions in estimated biomass in forests of the Brazilian Shield, east Africa, and Australia, and relatively little change in the Guiana Shield, central Africa and southeast Asia. Appreciably different stand structure was observed among regions across the tropical continents, with some storing significantly more biomass in small diameter stems, which affects selection of the best height models to reduce uncertainty and biomass reductions due to H. After accounting for variation in H, total biomass per hectare is greatest in Australia, the Guiana Shield, Asia, central and east Africa, and lowest in east-central Amazonia, W. Africa, W. Amazonia, and the Brazilian Shield (descending order). Thus, if tropical forests span 1668 million km2 and store 285 Pg C (estimate including H), then applying our regional relationships implies that carbon storage is overestimated by 35 Pg C (31–39 bootstrapped 95% CI) if H is ignored, assuming that the sampled plots are an unbiased statistical representation of all tropical forest in terms of biomass and height factors. Our results show that tree H is an important allometric factor that needs to be included in future forest biomass estimates to reduce error in estimates of tropical carbon stocks and emissions due to deforestation