Homophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies

We consider processes on social networks that can potentially involve three factors: homophily, or the formation of social ties due to matching individual traits; social contagion, also known as social influence; and the causal effect of an individual's covariates on their behavior or other measurable responses. We show that, generically, all of these are confounded with each other. Distinguishing them from one another requires strong assumptions on the parametrization of the social process or on the adequacy of the covariates used (or both). In particular we demonstrate, with simple examples, that asymmetries in regression coefficients cannot identify causal effects, and that very simple models of imitation (a form of social contagion) can produce substantial correlations between an individual's enduring traits and their choices, even when there is no intrinsic affinity between them. We also suggest some possible constructive responses to these results.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. V2: Revised in response to referees. V3: Ditt

The Incentive Effects of Higher Education Subsidies on Student Effort

This paper uses a game-theoretic model to analyze the disincentive effects of low-tuition policies on student effort. The model of parent and student responses to tuition subsidies is then calibrated using information from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and the High School and Beyond Sophomore Cohort: 1980-92. I find that although subsidizing tuition increases enrollment rates, it reduces student effort. This follows from the fact that a high-subsidy, low-tuition policy causes an increase in the percentage of less able and less highly motivated college graduates. Additionall

ASEPTIC:primary antibiotic prophylaxis using co-trimoxazole to prevent SpontanEous bacterial PeritoniTIs in Cirrhosis-study protocol for an interventional randomised controlled trial

Background: Bacterial infection is a major cause of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious and common infection in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Secondary prophylactic antibiotic therapy has been shown to improve outcomes after an episode of SBP but primary prophylaxis to prevent the first episode of SBP remains contentious. The aim of this trial is to assess whether primary antibiotic prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole improves overall survival compared to placebo in adults with cirrhosis and ascites. Methods: The ASEPTIC trial is a multicentre, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in England, Scotland, and Wales. Patients aged 18 years and older with cirrhosis and ascites requiring diuretic treatment or paracentesis, and no current or previous episodes of SBP, are eligible, subject to exclusion criteria. The trial aims to recruit 432 patients from at least 30 sites. Patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either oral co-trimoxazole 960 mg or an identical placebo once daily for 18 months, with 6 monthly follow-up visits thereafter (with a maximum possible follow-up period of 48 months, and a minimum of 18 months). The primary outcome is overall survival. Secondary outcomes include the time to the first incidence of SBP, hospital admission rates, incidence of other infections (including Clostridium difficile) and antimicrobial resistance, patients’ health-related quality of life, health and social care resource use, incidence of cirrhosis-related decompensation events, liver transplantation, and treatment-related serious adverse events. Discussion: This trial will investigate the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of co-trimoxazole for patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites to determine whether this strategy improves clinical outcomes. Given there are no treatments that improve survival in decompensated cirrhosis outside of liver transplant, if the trial has a positive outcome, we anticipate widespread adoption of primary antibiotic prophylaxis. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT043955365. Registered on 18 April 2020. Research ethical approval was granted by the Research Ethics Committee (South Central – Oxford B; REC 19/SC/0311) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)

Analysis of 17,576 Potentially Functional SNPs in Three Case–Control Studies of Myocardial Infarction

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a common complex disease with a genetic component. While several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been reported to be associated with risk of MI, they do not fully explain the observed genetic component of MI. We have been investigating the association between MI and SNPs that are located in genes and have the potential to affect gene function or expression. We have previously published studies that tested about 12,000 SNPs for association with risk of MI, early-onset MI, or coronary stenosis. In the current study we tested 17,576 SNPs that could affect gene function or expression. In order to use genotyping resources efficiently, we staged the testing of these SNPs in three case–control studies of MI. In the first study (762 cases, 857 controls) we tested 17,576 SNPs and found 1,949 SNPs that were associated with MI (P<0.05). We tested these 1,949 SNPs in a second study (579 cases and 1159 controls) and found that 24 SNPs were associated with MI (1-sided P<0.05) and had the same risk alleles in the first and second study. Finally, we tested these 24 SNPs in a third study (475 cases and 619 controls) and found that 5 SNPs in 4 genes (ENO1, FXN (2 SNPs), HLA-DPB2, and LPA) were associated with MI in the third study (1-sided P<0.05), and had the same risk alleles in all three studies. The false discovery rate for this group of 5 SNPs was 0.23. Thus, we have identified 5 SNPs that merit further examination for their potential association with MI. One of these SNPs (in LPA), has been previously shown to be associated with risk of cardiovascular disease in other studies

Relations between lipoprotein(a) concentrations, LPA genetic variants, and the risk of mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease: a molecular and genetic association study

Background: Lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma are associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Whether lipoprotein(a) concentrations or LPA genetic variants predict long-term mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease remains less clear. Methods: We obtained data from 3313 patients with established coronary heart disease in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. We tested associations of tertiles of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma and two LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms ([SNPs] rs10455872 and rs3798220) with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality by Cox regression analysis and with severity of disease by generalised linear modelling, with and without adjustment for age, sex, diabetes diagnosis, systolic blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, LDL-cholesterol concentration, and use of lipid-lowering therapy. Results for plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were validated in five independent studies involving 10 195 patients with established coronary heart disease. Results for genetic associations were replicated through large-scale collaborative analysis in the GENIUS-CHD consortium, comprising 106 353 patients with established coronary heart disease and 19 332 deaths in 22 studies or cohorts. Findings: The median follow-up was 9·9 years. Increased severity of coronary heart disease was associated with lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma in the highest tertile (adjusted hazard radio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·14–1·83) and the presence of either LPA SNP (1·88, 1·40–2·53). No associations were found in LURIC with all-cause mortality (highest tertile of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma 0·95, 0·81–1·11 and either LPA SNP 1·10, 0·92–1·31) or cardiovascular mortality (0·99, 0·81–1·2 and 1·13, 0·90–1·40, respectively) or in the validation studies. Interpretation: In patients with prevalent coronary heart disease, lipoprotein(a) concentrations and genetic variants showed no associations with mortality. We conclude that these variables are not useful risk factors to measure to predict progression to death after coronary heart disease is established. Funding: Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technical Development (AtheroRemo and RiskyCAD), INTERREG IV Oberrhein Programme, Deutsche Nierenstiftung, Else-Kroener Fresenius Foundation, Deutsche Stiftung für Herzforschung, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Saarland University, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Willy Robert Pitzer Foundation, and Waldburg-Zeil Clinics Isny

Genetically determined height and coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The nature and underlying mechanisms of an inverse association between adult height and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) are unclear. METHODS: We used a genetic approach to investigate the association between height and CAD, using 180 height-associated genetic variants. We tested the association between a change in genetically determined height of 1 SD (6.5 cm) with the risk of CAD in 65,066 cases and 128,383 controls. Using individual-level genotype data from 18,249 persons, we also examined the risk of CAD associated with the presence of various numbers of height-associated alleles. To identify putative mechanisms, we analyzed whether genetically determined height was associated with known cardiovascular risk factors and performed a pathway analysis of the height-associated genes. RESULTS: We observed a relative increase of 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4 to 22.1; P<0.001) in the risk of CAD per 1-SD decrease in genetically determined height. There was a graded relationship between the presence of an increased number of height-raising variants and a reduced risk of CAD (odds ratio for height quartile 4 versus quartile 1, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.84; P<0.001). Of the 12 risk factors that we studied, we observed significant associations only with levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides (accounting for approximately 30% of the association). We identified several overlapping pathways involving genes associated with both development and atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: There is a primary association between a genetically determined shorter height and an increased risk of CAD, a link that is partly explained by the association between shorter height and an adverse lipid profile. Shared biologic processes that determine achieved height and the development of atherosclerosis may explain some of the association. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).Supported by the British Heart Foundation, the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research, the European Union project CVgenes@target, and a grant from the Leducq Foundation.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1404881

Epigenetic modification of the PD-1 (Pdcd1) promoter in effector CD4(+) T cells tolerized by peptide immunotherapy

Clinically effective antigen-based immunotherapy must silence antigen-experienced effector T cells (Teff) driving ongoing immune pathology. Using CD4+ autoimmune Teff cells, we demonstrate that peptide immunotherapy (PIT) is strictly dependent upon sustained T cell expression of the co-inhibitory molecule PD-1. We found high levels of 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) at the PD-1 (Pdcd1) promoter of non-tolerant T cells. 5hmC was lost in response to PIT, with DNA hypomethylation of the promoter. We identified dynamic changes in expression of the genes encoding the Ten-Eleven-Translocation (TET) proteins that are associated with the oxidative conversion 5-methylcytosine and 5hmC, during cytosine demethylation. We describe a model whereby promoter demethylation requires the co-incident expression of permissive histone modifications at the Pdcd1 promoter together with TET availability. This combination was only seen in tolerant Teff cells following PIT, but not in Teff that transiently express PD-1. Epigenetic changes at the Pdcd1 locus therefore determine the tolerizing potential of TCR-ligation. - See more at: http://elifesciences.org/content/3/e03416#sthash.n6isQlkn.dpu

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts