Interval set clustering of web users using modified Kohonen self-organizing maps based on the properties of rough sets

Publisher's version/PDFWeb usage mining involves application of data mining techniques to discover usage patterns from the web data. Clustering is one of the important functions in web usage mining. The likelihood of bad or incomplete web usage data is higher than the conventional applications. The clusters and associations in web usage mining do not necessarily have crisp boundaries. Researchers have studied the possibility of using fuzzy sets in web mining clustering applications. Recent attempts have adapted the K-means clustering algorithm as well as genetic algorithms based on rough sets to find interval sets of clusters. The genetic algorithms based clustering may not be able to handle large amounts of data. The K-means algorithm does not lend itself well to adaptive clustering. This paper proposes an adaptation of Kohonen self-organizing maps based on the properties of rough sets, to find the interval sets of clusters. Experiments are used to create interval set representations of clusters of web visitors on three educational web sites. The proposed approach has wider applications in other areas of web mining as well as data mining

Climate Change Impacts Can Be Differentially Perceived Across Time Scales: A Study Among the Tuareg of the Algerian Sahara

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAs an Indigenous community of Algeria and the broader Sahel, the Tuareg hold unique ecological knowledge, which might contribute to broader models of place-based climate change impacts. Between January and April 2019, we carried out semi-structured interviews (N = 23) and focus group discussions (N = 3) in five villages of the province of Illizi, Algeria, to document the local Tuareg community's timeline and ecological calendar, both of which are instruments used to understand place-based reports of climate change impacts. The livelihoods of the Tuareg of Illizi are finely tuned to climate variability as reflected in changes reported in the cadence of events in their ecological calendar (marked by cyclical climatic and religious events). Participants reported rain and temperature irregularities and severe drought events, which have impacted their pastoral and semi-pastoral livelihoods. These reports are aligned with scientifically measured climate observations and predictions. Paradoxically, although participants recall with detail the climatic disasters that happened in the region over the last century, the Tuareg do not explicitly report decadal trends in the frequency of extreme events. The differential perception of climate change impacts across scales can have important implications for undertaking climate change adaptation measures

Differential livelihood adaptation to social-ecological change in coastal Bangladesh

Social-ecological changes, brought about by the rapid growth of the aquaculture industry and the increased occurrence of climatic stressors, have significantly affected the livelihoods of coastal communities in Asian mega-deltas. This paper explores the livelihood adaptation responses of households of different wealth classes, the heterogeneous adaptation opportunities, barriers and limits (OBLs) faced by these households and the dynamic ways in which these factors interact to enhance or impede adaptive capacities. A mixed methods approach was used to collect empirical evidence from two villages in coastal Bangladesh. Findings reveal that households’ adaptive capacities largely depend on their wealth status, which not only determine their availability of productive resources, but also empower them to navigate social-ecological change in desirable ways. Households operate within a shared response space, which is shaped by the broader socio-economic and political landscape, as well as their previous decisions that can lock them in to particular pathways. While an adaptive response may be effective for one social group, it may cause negative externalities that can undermine the adaptation options and outcomes of another group. Adaptation OBLs interact in complex ways; the extent to which these OBLs affect different households depend on the specific livelihood activities being considered and the differential values and interests they hold. To ensure more equitable and environmentally sustainable livelihoods in future, policies and programs should aim to expand households’ adaptation space by accounting for the heterogeneous needs and complex interdependencies between response processes of different groups

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past, present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The concept of vulnerability is well established in the climate change literature, underpinning significant research effort. The ability of vulnerability research to capture the complexities of climate-society dynamics has been increasingly questioned, however. In this paper, we identify, characterize, and evaluate concerns over the use of vulnerability approaches in the climate change field based on a review of peer-reviewed articles published since 1990 (n = 587). Seven concerns are identified: neglect of social drivers, promotion of a static understanding of human-environment interactions, vagueness about the concept of vulnerability, neglect of cross-scale interactions, passive and negative framing, limited influence on decision-making, and limited collaboration across disciplines. Examining each concern against trends in the literature, we find some of these concerns weakly justified, but others pose valid challenges to vulnerability research. Efforts to revitalize vulnerability research are needed, with priority areas including developing the next generation of empirical studies, catalyzing collaboration across disciplines to leverage and build on the strengths of divergent intellectual traditions involved in vulnerability research, and linking research to the practical realities of decision-making

Assessing the feasibility of adaptation options: methodological advancements and directions for climate adaptation research and practice

The Paris Agreement put adaptation prominently on the global climate action agenda. Despite a surge in research and praxis-based knowledge on adaptation, a critical policy roadblock is synthesizing and assessing this burgeoning evidence. We develop an approach to assess the multidimensional feasibility of adaptation options in a robust and transparent manner, providing direction for global climate policy and identifying knowledge gaps to further future climate research. The approach, which was tested in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C (SR1.5) to assess 23 adaptation options, is underpinned by a systematic review of recent literature, expert elicitation, and iterative peer review. It responds to the challenge of limited agreement on adaptation indicators, lack of fine-scale adaptation data, and challenges of assessing synergies and trade-offs with mitigation. The findings offer methodological insights into how future assessments such as the IPCC Assessment Report (AR) six and regional, national, and sectoral assessment exercises could assess adaptation feasibility and synthesize the growing body of knowledge on climate change adaptation

Shrinking pasture, burgeoning herds: Divergent adaptation to climate change in Tahoua, Niger

L’adaptació al canvi climàtic és un procés complex i dinàmic que s’ha observat que provoca capacitats adaptatives desiguals entre els múltiples actors d’un sistema socioecològic (SSE). Partint de les teories dels SSE sobre adaptació, aquesta tesi formula la pregunta: Com es relaciona l’adaptació divergent amb el conflicte i la cooperació en un SSE rural compartit entre actors pastorals i agro-pastorals? Per tal d’examinar les dinàmiques socials, ecològiques, institucionals i climàtiques, la tesi introdueix el concepte d’adaptació “divergent”. L’adaptació és divergent quan l’adaptació d’un grup d’actors provoca la subseqüent reducció de la capacitat adaptativa d’un altre grup d’actors en el mateix ecosistema, la qual cosa pot estar lligada a dinàmiques de cooperació i de conflicte. Per tal d’entendre l’adaptació divergent, he realitzat un estudi al Níger, un país amb nivells baixos de capacitat adaptativa que està situat al cor de la regió del Sahel-Sàhara, a l’Àfrica occidental. Diferents àrees d’estudi van ser seleccionades d’entre tres zones ecològiques a la regió de Tahoua: Tillia (una àrea principalment de pastura a la zona plujosa del Sahel-Sàhara), Keita (una àrea agro-pastoral a la zona del Sahel), i Madaoua (una zona principalment agrícola en el límit de la zona sudanesa-saheliana). La recerca ha tingut com a objectius: 1) entendre les percepcions dels canvis històrics, presents i futurs en els serveis dels ecosistemes i els mitjans de vida relacionats; 2) identificar les capacitats adaptatives dels múltiples actors; 3) explicar el ritme i el volum de la creació de “enclosures” al voltant de llacs efímers i permanents; i 4) analitzar les institucions multiescalars que donen suport a l’organització de l’espai rural i a la resolució dels seus conflictes. Les adaptacions divergents descrites en aquest estudi inclouen: l’expansió de cultius en zones de pastura, la introducció de pagaments per l’accés a l’aigua, i el desenvolupament d’horts de regadiu en llacs estacionals. L’adaptació divergent pot ser un procés que aporta més cooperació i equitat a la societat o pot augmentar els patrons ja arrelats d’injustícia i desigualtat. És un procés determinat pels patrons de degradació dels serveis dels ecosistemes, els règims canviants de propietat de la terra rellevants per les adaptacions, i el tipus i influència de les institucions en el procés d’adaptació. Basat en un exàmen exhaustiu de les adaptacions divergents, els resultats mostren que en les tres zones ecològiques l’expansió de cultius continua reemplaçant els sistemes mòbils de pasturatge, provocant conflictes en algunes ocasions. En aquest context, els mitjans de vida que depenen dels serveis dels ecosistemes d’aprovisionament i suport de l’agricultura són més destructius pels serveis múltiples que no pas els mitjans de vida i actors que es basen en el pasturatge. A Tillia, el foment dels pagaments per l’aigua contribueix als canvis en curs dels els règims de gestió de la terra, on els recursos passen de ser comuns i compartits a ser propietat privada. En una de les àrees de la zona oficial de pastures, la construcció de tancats al voltant de basses de reg comunes ha crescut a un ritme del 124% en un període de nou anys. Malgrat l’existència de lleis adequades per protegir els espais de pastures, aquestes rarament són aplicades, un problema agreujat pels conflictes en la governança, per una baixa responsabilitat i per la corrupció. Els participants en un grup de discussió sobre escenaris futurs de canvi climàtic van estar d’acord de manera unànime en què a les zones de pastures s’hi seguiran construint tancats i seran cultivades, atès especialment a què els pastors s’estan instal·lant en els poblats. L’adaptació divergent és un concepte de gran actualitat que pot ser de suma importància per a l’estudi de com l’adaptació i les capacitats adaptatives dels múltiples actors poden contribuir al conflicte i a la cooperació en el context de canvi climàtic. Aquesta tesi demostra empíricament la diversitat de fenòmens socials i ecològics que poden explicar el concepte d’adaptació divergent i contribueix en diversos àmbits científics i polítics pertinents per a la capacitat d’adaptació en SSE.Climate change adaptation is a complex and dynamic process that has been found to produce unequal adaptive capacities for multiple users across a social ecological system (SES). Stemming from SES theories on adaptation, this thesis asks the question: How does divergent adaptation link to conflict and cooperation in a rural ‘farmer-herder’ SES? To examine social, ecological, institutional and climatic dynamics, the thesis introduces the concept ‘divergent’ adaptation. Adaptation is divergent when one user or group’s adaptation causes a subsequent reduction in another user or group’s adaptive capacity in the same ecosystem, which may be linked to cooperation and conflict dynamics. To understand divergent adaptation, I performed a case study land and water use conflicts within and between agro-pastoral and pastoral groups in Niger, a country with low levels of adaptive capacity that is located in the heart of the Sahel-Sahara region of West Africa. Sites were selected within three ecological zones in the region of Tahoua: Tillia (a primarily pastoral area in the Sahelo-Saharan rainfall zone), Keita (an agro-pastoral area in the Sahel zone), and Madaoua (a primarily agricultural area on the edge of the Sudano-Sahel zone). The research aimed to: 1) understand perceptions of historical, present, and future changes to ecosystem services and related livelihoods; 2) identify the adaptive capacities of multiple users; 3) explain the pace and volume of the development of enclosures around ephemeral and permanent lakes; and 4) analyze multi-scalar institutions supporting the organization of the rural space and resolution of land and water access conflicts therein. The divergent adaptations described in this study include: expanding cultivation into pastoral areas, introducing payments for water access, and developing irrigated gardening on seasonal lakes. Divergent adaptation can be a process that builds more cooperation and equity in society or enhances entrenched patterns of injustice and inequality, a process determined by the patterns of degradation of ecosystem services, the shifting land tenure regimes relevant to adaptations, and the type and influence of institutions on the adaptation process. Based on a rigorous examination of divergent adaptations, findings show that across the three ecological zones, expanding cultivation continues to supersede mobile pastoral systems, sometimes resulting in conflict. In this context, the cultivating livelihoods dependent upon certain ecosystem services for agricultural production are more destructive to multiple ecosystem services than the livelihoods of pastoralists and the users themselves. In Tillia, the exhortation of water payments contributes to the ongoing shifts of land management regimes from commonly-shared to privately owned resources. In one location in the official pastoral zone, fencing-in of common watering holes has grown at a rate of 124% over a period of nine years as a result of irrigated gardening. While the Rural and Pastoral Codes are in place to protect pastoral space, they are rarely enforced, a problem exacerbated by conflicting governance, low accountability, and corruption. Stakeholders at climate change scenario focus group, unanimously agree that pasture will continue to be enclosed and cultivated, especially as pastoralists settle in villages, thus constraining resources. Divergent adaptation is a state-of-the-art concept relevant for the study of how the differential adaptive capacities of multiple users contributes to conflict and cooperation in the context of climate change. Given the empirical findings, this thesis demonstrates the need for more equitable and inclusive decision-making processes at multiple scales of adaptation in the SES