An omics-based machine learning approach to predict diabetes progression:a RHAPSODY study

Aims/hypothesis: People with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their disease trajectory, with some progressing more quickly to insulin initiation than others. Although classical biomarkers such as age, HbA 1c and diabetes duration are associated with glycaemic progression, it is unclear how well such variables predict insulin initiation or requirement and whether newly identified markers have added predictive value. Methods: In two prospective cohort studies as part of IMI-RHAPSODY, we investigated whether clinical variables and three types of molecular markers (metabolites, lipids, proteins) can predict time to insulin requirement using different machine learning approaches (lasso, ridge, GRridge, random forest). Clinical variables included age, sex, HbA 1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. Models were run with unpenalised clinical variables (i.e. always included in the model without weights) or penalised clinical variables, or without clinical variables. Model development was performed in one cohort and the model was applied in a second cohort. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s C statistic. Results: Of the 585 individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, 69 required insulin during follow-up (1.0–11.4 years); of the 571 individuals in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort, 175 required insulin during follow-up (0.3–11.8 years). Overall, the clinical variables and proteins were selected in the different models most often, followed by the metabolites. The most frequently selected clinical variables were HbA 1c (18 of the 36 models, 50%), age (15 models, 41.2%) and C-peptide (15 models, 41.2%). Base models (age, sex, BMI, HbA 1c) including only clinical variables performed moderately in both the DCS discovery cohort (C statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.79]) and the GoDARTS replication cohort (C 0.71 [95% CI 0.69, 0.75]). A more extensive model including HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide performed better in both cohorts (DCS, C 0.74 [95% CI 0.67, 0.81]; GoDARTS, C 0.73 [95% CI 0.69, 0.77]). Two proteins, lactadherin and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase receptor, were most consistently selected and slightly improved model performance. Conclusions/interpretation: Using machine learning approaches, we show that insulin requirement risk can be modestly well predicted by predominantly clinical variables. Inclusion of molecular markers improves the prognostic performance beyond that of clinical variables by up to 5%. Such prognostic models could be useful for identifying people with diabetes at high risk of progressing quickly to treatment intensification. Data availability: Summary statistics of lipidomic, proteomic and metabolomic data are available from a Shiny dashboard at https://rhapdata-app.vital-it.ch. Graphical Abstract: (Figure presented.).</p

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies genetic variants associated with glycemic response to sulfonylureas

OBJECTIVE: Sulfonylureas, the first available drugs for the management of type 2 diabetes, remain widely prescribed today. However, there exists significant variability in glycemic response to treatment. We aimed to establish heritability of sulfonylurea response and identify genetic variants and interacting treatments associated with HbA(1c) reduction. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: As an initiative of the Metformin Genetics Plus Consortium (MetGen Plus) and the DIabetes REsearCh on patient straTification (DIRECT) consortium, 5,485 White Europeans with type 2 diabetes treated with sulfonylureas were recruited from six referral centers in Europe and North America. We first estimated heritability using the generalized restricted maximum likelihood approach and then undertook genome-wide association studies of glycemic response to sulfonylureas measured as HbA(1c) reduction after 12 months of therapy followed by meta-analysis. These results were supported by acute glipizide challenge in humans who were naïve to type 2 diabetes medications, cis expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), and functional validation in cellular models. Finally, we examined for possible drug-drug-gene interactions. RESULTS: After establishing that sulfonylurea response is heritable (mean ± SEM 37 ± 11%), we identified two independent loci near the GXYLT1 and SLCO1B1 genes associated with HbA(1c) reduction at a genome-wide scale (P < 5 × 10(−8)). The C allele at rs1234032, near GXYLT1, was associated with 0.14% (1.5 mmol/mol), P = 2.39 × 10(−8)), lower reduction in HbA(1c). Similarly, the C allele was associated with higher glucose trough levels (β = 1.61, P = 0.005) in healthy volunteers in the SUGAR-MGH given glipizide (N = 857). In 3,029 human whole blood samples, the C allele is a cis eQTL for increased expression of GXYLT1 (β = 0.21, P = 2.04 × 10(−58)). The C allele of rs10770791, in an intronic region of SLCO1B1, was associated with 0.11% (1.2 mmol/mol) greater reduction in HbA(1c) (P = 4.80 × 10(−8)). In 1,183 human liver samples, the C allele at rs10770791 is a cis eQTL for reduced SLCO1B1 expression (P = 1.61 × 10(−7)), which, together with functional studies in cells expressing SLCO1B1, supports a key role for hepatic SLCO1B1 (encoding OATP1B1) in regulation of sulfonylurea transport. Further, a significant interaction between statin use and SLCO1B1 genotype was observed (P = 0.001). In statin nonusers, C allele homozygotes at rs10770791 had a large absolute reduction in HbA(1c) (0.48 ± 0.12% [5.2 ± 1.26 mmol/mol]), equivalent to that associated with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified clinically important genetic effects at genome-wide levels of significance, and important drug-drug-gene interactions, which include commonly prescribed statins. With increasing availability of genetic data embedded in clinical records these findings will be important in prescribing glucose-lowering drugs

Intestinal Obstruction Syndromes in Cystic Fibrosis: Meconium Ileus, Distal Intestinal Obstruction Syndrome, and Constipation

Meconium ileus at birth, distal intestinal obstruction syndrome (DIOS), and constipation are an interrelated group of intestinal obstruction syndromes with a variable severity of obstruction that occurs in cystic fibrosis patients. Long-term follow-up studies show that today meconium ileus is not a risk factor for impaired nutritional status, pulmonary function, or survival. DIOS and constipation are frequently seen in cystic fibrosis patients, especially later in life; genetic, dietary, and other associations have been explored. Diagnosis of DIOS is based on suggestive symptoms, with a right lower quadrant mass confirmed on abdominal radiography, whereas symptoms of constipation are milder and of longer standing. In DIOS, early aggressive laxative treatment with oral laxatives (polyethylene glycol) or intestinal lavage with balanced osmotic electrolyte solution and rehydration is required, which now makes the need for surgical interventions rare. Constipation can generally be well controlled with polyethylene glycol maintenance treatment

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Can Identify Patients With GAD65 Autoantibody-Positive Type 2 Diabetes Who Rapidly Progress to Insulin Therapy

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Diabetes Association via the DOI in this record.Objective Progression to insulin therapy in clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes is highly variable. GAD65 autoantibodies (GADA) are associated with faster progression, but their predictive value is limited. We aimed to determine if a Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score (T1DGRS) could predict rapid progression to insulin treatment over and above GADA testing. Research Design and Methods We examined the relationship between T1DGRS, GADA (negative or positive) and rapid insulin requirement (within 5 years) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression in 8,608 participants with clinical type 2 diabetes (onset >35 years, treated without insulin for ≥6 months). T1DGRS was analyzed both continuously (as standardized scores) and categorized based on previously reported centiles of a type 1 diabetes population (50th (high)). Results In GADA positive participants (3.3%), those with higher T1DGRS progressed to insulin more quickly: Probability of insulin requirement at five years [95% CI]: 47.9%[35.0%,62.78%] (high T1DGRS) vs 27.6%[20.5%,36.5%] (medium T1DGRS) vs 17.6%[11.2%,27.2%] (low T1DGRS), p=0.001. In contrast T1DGRS did not predict rapid insulin requirement in GADA negative participants (p=0.4). In Cox regression analysis with adjustment for age of diagnosis, BMI and cohort, T1DGRS was independently associated with time to insulin only in the presence of GADA: hazard ratio per SD increase 1.48 (1.15,1.90), p=0.002. Conclusions A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score alters the clinical implications of a positive GADA test in patients with clinical type 2 diabetes, and is independent of and additive to clinical features.The Wellcome Trust United Kingdom Type 2 Diabetes Case Control Collection (GoDARTS) was funded by The Wellcome Trust (084727/Z/08/Z, 085475/Z/08/Z, 085475/B/08/Z) and as part of the EU IMI-SUMMIT program. GADA assessment in GoDARTS and DCS was funded by EU Innovative Medicines Initiative 115317 (DIRECT), resources of which are composed of financial contributions from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies in kind contribution. The DCS cohort was partially funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (Priority Medicines Elderly Programme 113102006). The Diabetes Alliance for Research in England (DARE) study was funded by the Wellcome Trust and supported by the Exeter NIHR Clinical Research Facility. The MASTERMIND study was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/N00633X/) and supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. The PRIBA study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (U.K.) (DRF-2010-03-72) and supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. B.M.S and A.T.H. are supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. T.J.M. is a National Institute for Health Research Senior Clinical Senior Lecturer. E.R.P. is a Wellcome Trust New Investigator (102820/Z/13/Z). A.T.H. is a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator and NIHR Senior Investigator. R.A.O is supported by a Diabetes UK Harry Keen Fellowship (16/0005529). A.G.J. is supported by an NIHR Clinician Scientist award (CS-2015-15-018)

Distinct molecular signatures of clinical clusters in people with type 2 diabetes:an IMI-RHAPSODY study

Type 2 diabetes is a multifactorial disease with multiple underlying aetiologies. To address this heterogeneity a previous study clustered people with diabetes into five diabetes subtypes. The aim of the current study is to investigate the aetiology of these clusters by comparing their molecular signatures. In three independent cohorts, in total 15,940 individuals were clustered based on five clinical characteristics. In a subset, genetic- (N=12828), metabolomic- (N=2945), lipidomic- (N=2593) and proteomic (N=1170) data were obtained in plasma. In each datatype each cluster was compared with the other four clusters as the reference. The insulin resistant cluster showed the most distinct molecular signature, with higher BCAAs, DAG and TAG levels and aberrant protein levels in plasma enriched for proteins in the intracellular PI3K/Akt pathway. The obese cluster showed higher cytokines. A subset of the mild diabetes cluster with high HDL showed the most beneficial molecular profile with opposite effects to those seen in the insulin resistant cluster. This study showed that clustering people with type 2 diabetes can identify underlying molecular mechanisms related to pancreatic islets, liver, and adipose tissue metabolism. This provides novel biological insights into the diverse aetiological processes that would not be evident when type 2 diabetes is viewed as a homogeneous diseas

Age-related accrual of methylomic variability is linked to fundamental ageing mechanisms

Background: Epigenetic change is a hallmark of ageing but its link to ageing mechanisms in humans remains poorly understood. While DNA methylation at many CpG sites closely tracks chronological age, DNA methylation changes relevant to biological age are expected to gradually dissociate from chronological age, mirroring the increased heterogeneity in health status at older ages. Results: Here, we report on the large-scale identification of 6366 age-related variably methylated positions (aVMPs) identified in 3295 whole blood DNA methylation profiles, 2044 of which have a matching RNA-seq gene expression profile. aVMPs are enriched at polycomb repressed regions and, accordingly, methylation at those positions is associated with the expression of genes encoding components of polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2) in trans. Further analysis revealed trans-associations for 1816 aVMPs with an additional 854 genes. These trans-associated aVMPs are characterized by either an age-related

Blood lipids influence DNA methylation in circulating cells

Background: Cells can be primed by external stimuli to obtain a long-term epigenetic memory. We hypothesize that long-term exposure to elevated blood lipids can prime circulating immune cells through changes in DNA methylation, a process that may contribute to the development of atherosclerosis. To interrogate the causal relationship between triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels and genome-wide DNA methylation while excluding confounding and pleiotropy, we perform a stepwise Mendelian randomization analysis in whole blood of 3296 individuals. Results: This analysis shows that differential methylation is the consequence of inter-individual variation in blood lipid levels and not vice versa. Specifically, we observe an effect of triglycerides on DNA methylation at three CpGs, of LDL cholesterol at one CpG, and of HDL cholesterol at two CpGs using multivariable Mendelian randomization. Using RNA-seq data available for a large subset of individuals (N = 2044), DNA methylation of these six CpGs is associated with the expression of CPT1A and SREBF1 (for triglycerides), DHCR24 (for LDL cholesterol) and

Implicating genes, pleiotropy, and sexual dimorphism at blood lipid loci through multi-ancestry meta-analysis

Abstract Background Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk

Implicating genes, pleiotropy, and sexual dimorphism at blood lipid loci through multi-ancestry meta-analysis

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Background: Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results: To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions: Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.Peer reviewe