Simulating tidal and storm surge hydraulics with a simple 2D inertia based model, in the Humber Estuary, U.K

The hydraulic modelling of tidal estuarine environments has been largely limited to complex 3D models that are computationally expensive. This makes them unsuitable for applications which make use of live data to make real/near time forecasts, such as the modelling of storm surge propagation and associated flood inundation risks. To address this requirement for a computationally efficient method a reduced complexity, depth-integrated 2D storage cell model (Lisflood-FP) has been applied to the Humber Estuary, UK. The capability of Lisflood-FP to reproduce the tidal heights of the Humber Estuary has been shown by comparing modelled and observed tidal stage heights over a period of a week. The feasibility of using the Lisflood-FP model to forecast flood inundation risk from a storm surge is demonstrated by reproducing the major storm surge that struck the UK East Coast and Humber Estuary on 5 December 2013. Results show that even for this 2013 extreme event the model is capable of reproducing the hydraulics and tidal levels of the estuary. Using present day flood defences and observed flooding extents, the modelled flood inundation areas produced by the model were compared, showing agreement in most areas and illustrating the model's potential as a now-casting early warning system when driven by publically available data, and in near real-time. The Lisflood-FP model used was incorporated into the CAESAR-Lisflood GUI, with the calibration and verification of the estuarine hydraulics reported herein being a key step in creating an estuary evolution model, capable of operating in the decadal to century timescales that are presently underrepresented in estuarine predictive capability, and ultimately developing a model to predict the evolution of flood risk over the longer term

Diet and bone mineral density study in postmenopausal women from the TwinsUK registry shows a negative association with a traditional English dietary pattern and a positive association with wine

Background: The effect of diet on bone mineral density (BMD) remains controversial, mainly because of difficulties in isolating dietary factors from the confounding influences of age, lifestyle, and genetic factors. Objective: The aim of this study was to use a novel method to examine the relation between BMD and diet. Design: A co-twin control study design with linear regression modeling was used to test for associations between BMD and habitual intakes of calcium, vitamin D, protein, and alcohol plus 5 previously identified dietary patterns in postmenopausal women from the TwinsUK registry. This approach exploited the unique matching of twins to provide an estimate of an association that was not confounded by age, genetic background, or shared lifestyle. Results: In >2000 postmenopausal women (BMD data on 1019, 1218, and 1232 twin pairs at the hip neck, hip, and spine, respectively), we observed a positive association between alcohol intake (from wine but not from beer or spirits) and spine BMD (P = 0.01) and a negative association with a traditional 20th-century English diet at the hip neck (P = 0.01). Both associations remained borderline significant after adjustment for mean twin-pair intakes (P = 0.04 and P = 0.055, respectively). Other dietary patterns and intakes of calcium, vitamin D, and protein were unrelated to BMD. Conclusion: Our results showed that diet has an independent but subtle effect on BMD; wine intake was positively associated with spine BMD, whereas a traditional (20th-century) English diet had a negative association with hip BMD

Gridmapping the northern plains of Mars: Geomorphological, Radar and Water-Equivalent Hydrogen results from Arcadia Plantia

A project of mapping ice-related landforms was undertaken to understand the role of sub-surface ice in the northern plains. This work is the first continuous regional mapping from CTX (“ConTeXt Camera”, 6 m/pixel; Malin et al., 2007) imagery in Arcadia Planitia along a strip 300 km across stretching from 30°N to 80°N centred on the 170° West line of longitude. The distribution and morphotypes of these landforms were used to understand the permafrost cryolithology. The mantled and textured signatures occur almost ubiquitously between 35° N and 78° N and have a positive spatial correlation with inferred ice stability based on thermal modelling, neutron spectroscopy and radar data. The degradational features into the LDM (Latitude Dependent Mantle) include pits, scallops and 100 m polygons and provide supporting evidence for sub-surface ice and volatile loss between 35-70° N in Arcadia with the mantle between 70-78° N appearing much more intact. Pitted terrain appears to be much more pervasive in Arcadia than in Acidalia and Utopia suggesting that the Arcadia study area had more wide-spread near-surface sub-surface ice, and thus was more susceptible to pitting, or that the ice was less well-buried by sediments. Correlations with ice stability models suggest that lack of pits north of 65-70° N could indicate a relatively young age (~1Ma), however this could also be explained through regional variations in degradation rates. The deposition of the LDM is consistent with an airfall hypothesis however there appears to be substantial evidence for fluvial processes in southern Arcadia with older, underlying processes being equally dominant with the LDM and degradation thereof in shaping the landscape

The contribution of diet and genotype to iron status in women:a classical twin study

This is the first published report examining the combined effect of diet and genotype on body iron content using a classical twin study design. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors in determining iron status. The population was comprised of 200 BMI- and age-matched pairs of MZ and DZ healthy twins, characterised for habitual diet and 15 iron-related candidate genetic markers. Variance components analysis demonstrated that the heritability of serum ferritin (SF) and soluble transferrin receptor was 44% and 54% respectively. Measured single nucleotide polymorphisms explained 5% and selected dietary factors 6% of the variance in iron status; there was a negative association between calcium intake and body iron (p = 0.02) and SF (p = 0.04)

Prevalence of Babesia spp., Ehrlichia spp., and tick infestations in Oklahoma black bears (Ursus americanus)

American black bears (Ursus americanus) are commonly infested with ticks throughout their range, but there are few surveys for tick-borne disease agents in bears. To characterize tick infestations and determine the prevalence of current infection with Babesia spp. and past or current infection with Ehrlichia spp. in newly re-established populations of black bears in east central and southeastern Oklahoma, US, we identified adult (n=1,048) and immature (n=107) ticks recovered from bears (n=62). We evaluated serum and whole blood samples from a subset (n=49) for antibodies reactive to, and characteristic DNA fragments of, Ehrlichia spp., as well as characteristic DNA fragments of Babesia spp. Amblyomma americanum, the most common tick identified, was found on a majority (56/62; 90%) of bears and accounted for 697/1,048 (66.5%) of all ticks recovered. Other ticks included Dermacentor variabilis (338/1,048; 32.3%) from 36 bears, Amblyomma maculatum (9/1,048; 0.9%) from three bears, and Ixodes scapularis (4/1,048; 0.4%) from three bears. Antibodies reactive to Ehrlichia spp. were detected in every bear tested (49/49; 100%); maximum inverse titers to Ehrlichia chaffeensis ranged from 64-4,096 (geometric mean titer 1,525). However, PCR failed to identify active infection with E. chaffeensis, Ehrlichia ewingii, or an Ehrlichia ruminantium-like agent. Infection with Babesia spp. was detected by PCR in 3/49 (6%) bears. Together these data confirm that tick infestations and infection with tick-borne disease agents are common in bears in the southern US. The significance of these infestations and infections to the health of bears, if any, and the identity of the Ehrlichia spp. responsible for the antibody reactivity seen, warrant further evaluation.Peer reviewedEntomology and Plant PathologyNatural Resource Ecology and ManagementVeterinary Pathobiolog

Attitudes and Performance: An Analysis of Russian Workers

This paper investigates the relationship between locus of control and performance among Russian employees, using survey data collected at 28 workplaces in 2002 in Taganrog and at 47 workplaces in 2003 in Ekaterinburg. We develop a measure that allows us to categorize the Russian employees participating in our survey as exhibiting an internal or external locus of control. We then assess the extent to which there are significant differences between “internals” and “externals” in work-related attitudes that may affect performance. In particular, we focus on (1) attitudes about outcomes associated with hard work, (2) level of job satisfaction, (3) expectation of receiving a desired reward, and (4) loyalty to and involvement with one’s organization. In each case we identify where gender and generational differences emerge. Our main objective is to determine whether Russian employees who exhibit an internal locus of control perform better than employees with an external locus of control. Our performance measures include earnings, expected promotions, and assessments of the quantity and quality of work in comparison to others at the same organization doing a similar job. Controlling for a variety of worker characteristics, we find that (1) individuals who exhibit an internal locus of control perform better, but this result is not always statistically significant; (2) even among “internals,” women earn significantly less than men and have a much lower expectation of promotion; (3) even among “internals,” experience with unemployment has a negative influence on performance.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40144/3/wp758.pd

The Discovery of a Potent, Selective, and Peripherally Restricted Pan-Trk Inhibitor (PF-06273340) for the Treatment of Pain

The neurotrophin family of growth factors, comprised of nerve growth factor (NGF), brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), neurotrophin 3 (NT3), and neurotrophin 4 (NT4), is implicated in the physiology of chronic pain. Given the clinical efficacy of anti-NGF monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies, there is significant interest in the development of small molecule modulators of neurotrophin activity. Neurotrophins signal through the tropomyosin related kinase (Trk) family of tyrosine kinase receptors, hence Trk kinase inhibition represents a potentially “druggable” point of intervention. To deliver the safety profile required for chronic, nonlife threatening pain indications, highly kinase-selective Trk inhibitors with minimal brain availability are sought. Herein we describe how the use of SBDD, 2D QSAR models, and matched molecular pair data in compound design enabled the delivery of the highly potent, kinase-selective, and peripherally restricted clinical candidate PF-06273340

A trial protocol for the effectiveness of digital interventions for preventing depression in adolescents : The Future Proofing Study

Background: Depression frequently first emerges during adolescence, and one in five young people will experience an episode of depression by the age of 18 years. Despite advances in treatment, there has been limited progress in addressing the burden at a population level. Accordingly, there has been growing interest in prevention approaches as an additional pathway to address depression. Depression can be prevented using evidence-based psychological programmes. However, barriers to implementing and accessing these programmes remain, typically reflecting a requirement for delivery by clinical experts and high associated delivery costs. Digital technologies, specifically smartphones, are now considered a key strategy to overcome the barriers inhibiting access to mental health programmes. The Future Proofing Study is a large-scale school-based trial investigating whether cognitive behaviour therapies (CBT) delivered by smartphone application can prevent depression. Methods: A randomised controlled trial targeting up to 10,000 Year 8 Australian secondary school students will be conducted. In Stage I, schools will be randomised at the cluster level either to receive the CBT intervention app (SPARX) or to a non-active control group comparator. The primary outcome will be symptoms of depression, and secondary outcomes include psychological distress, anxiety and insomnia. At the 12-month follow-up, participants in the intervention arm with elevated depressive symptoms will participate in an individual-level randomised controlled trial (Stage II) and be randomised to receive a second CBT app which targets sleep difficulties (Sleep Ninja) or a control condition. Assessments will occur post intervention (both trial stages) and at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months post baseline. Primary analyses will use an intention-to-treat approach and compare changes in symptoms from baseline to follow-up relative to the control group using mixed-effect models. Discussion: This is the first trial testing the effectiveness of smartphone apps delivered to school students to prevent depression at scale. Results from this trial will provide much-needed insight into the feasibility of this approach. They stand to inform policy and commission decisions concerning if and how such programmes should be deployed in school-based settings in Australia and beyond

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

Blood Magnesium, and the Interaction with Calcium, on the Risk of High-Grade Prostate Cancer

Ionized calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) compete as essential messengers to regulate cell proliferation and inflammation. We hypothesized that inadequate Mg levels, perhaps relative to Ca levels (e.g. a high Ca/Mg ratio) are associated with greater prostate cancer risk.In this biomarker sub-study of the Nashville Men's Health Study (NMHS), we included 494 NMHS participants, consisting of 98 high-grade (Gleason≥7) and 100 low-grade cancer cases, 133 prostate intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) cases, and 163 controls without cancer or PIN at biopsy. Linear and logistic regression were used to determine associations between blood Ca, Mg, and the Ca/Mg ratio across controls and case groups while adjusting for potential confounding factors.Serum Mg levels were significantly lower, while the Ca/Mg ratio was significantly higher, among high-grade cases vs. controls (p = 0.04, p = 0.01, respectively). Elevated Mg was significantly associated with a lower risk of high-grade prostate cancer (OR = 0.26 (0.09, 0.85)). An elevated Ca/Mg ratio was also associated with an increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer (OR = 2.81 (1.24, 6.36) adjusted for serum Ca and Mg). In contrast, blood Ca levels were not significantly associated with prostate cancer or PIN.Mg, Ca, or Ca/Mg levels were not associated with low-grade cancer, PIN, PSA levels, prostate volume, or BPH treatment.Low blood Mg levels and a high Ca/Mg ratio were significantly associated with high-grade prostate cancer. These findings suggest Mg affects prostate cancer risk perhaps through interacting with Ca