Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data

Inferred effective climate sensitivity (ECSinf) is estimated using a method combining radiative forcing (RF) time series and several series of observed ocean heat content (OHC) and near-surface temperature change in a Bayesian framework using a simple energy balance model and a stochastic model. The model is updated compared to our previous analysis by using recent forcing estimates from IPCC, including OHC data for the deep ocean, and extending the time series to 2014. In our main analysis, the mean value of the estimated ECSinf is 2.0 °C, with a median value of 1.9 °C and a 90 % credible interval (CI) of 1.2–3.1 °C. The mean estimate has recently been shown to be consistent with the higher values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by climate models. The transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to have a mean value of 1.4 °C (90 % CI 0.9–2.0 °C), and in our main analysis the posterior aerosol effective radiative forcing is similar to the range provided by the IPCC. We show a strong sensitivity of the estimated ECSinf to the choice of a priori RF time series, excluding pre-1950 data and the treatment of OHC data. Sensitivity analysis performed by merging the upper (0–700 m) and the deep-ocean OHC or using only one OHC dataset (instead of four in the main analysis) both give an enhancement of the mean ECSinf by about 50 % from our best estimate

Implications of differences between recent anthropogenic aerosol emission inventories for diagnosed AOD and radiative forcing from 1990 to 2019

This study focuses on implications of differences between recent global emissions inventories for simulated trends in anthropogenic aerosol abundances and radiative forcing (RF) over the 1990–2019 period. We use the ECLIPSE version 6 (ECLv6) and CEDS year 2021 release (CEDS21) as input to the chemical transport model OsloCTM3 and compare the resulting aerosol evolution to corresponding results derived with the first CEDS release, as well as to observed trends in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Using CEDS21 and ECLv6 results in a 3 % and 6 % lower global mean AOD compared to CEDS in 2014, primarily driven by differences over China and India, where the area average AOD is up to 30 % lower. These differences are considerably larger than the satellite-derived interannual variability in AOD. A negative linear trend over 2005–2017 in global AOD following changes in anthropogenic emissions is found with all three inventories but is markedly stronger with CEDS21 and ECLv6. Furthermore, we confirm that the model better captures the sign and strength of the observed AOD trend over China with CEDS21 and ECLv6 compared to using CEDS, while the opposite is the case for South Asia. We estimate a net global mean aerosol-induced RF in 2014 relative to 1990 of 0.08 W m−2 for CEDS21 and 0.12 W m−2 for ECLv6, compared to 0.03 W m−2 with CEDS. Using CEDS21, we also estimate the RF in 2019 relative to 1990 to be 0.10 W m−2, reflecting the continuing decreasing trend in aerosol loads post-2014. Our results facilitate more rigorous comparison between existing and upcoming studies of climate and health effects of aerosols using different emission inventories.</p

Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere

Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (sea-salt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60° N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70° S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (−0.12 W m−2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range

Concentrations and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols from 1750 to 2014 simulated with the Oslo CTM3 and CEDS emission inventory

We document the ability of the new-generation Oslo chemistry-transport model, Oslo CTM3, to accurately simulate present-day aerosol distributions. The model is then used with the new Community Emission Data System (CEDS) historical emission inventory to provide updated time series of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and consequent direct radiative forcing (RFari) from 1750 to 2014.Overall, Oslo CTM3 performs well compared with measurements of surface concentrations and remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. Concentrations are underestimated in Asia, but the higher emissions in CEDS than previous inventories result in improvements compared to observations. The treatment of black carbon (BC) scavenging in Oslo CTM3 gives better agreement with observed vertical BC profiles relative to the predecessor Oslo CTM2. However, Arctic wintertime BC concentrations remain underestimated, and a range of sensitivity tests indicate that better physical understanding of processes associated with atmospheric BC processing is required to simultaneously reproduce both the observed features. Uncertainties in model input data, resolution, and scavenging affect the distribution of all aerosols species, especially at high latitudes and altitudes. However, we find no evidence of consistently better model performance across all observables and regions in the sensitivity tests than in the baseline configuration.Using CEDS, we estimate a net RFari in 2014 relative to 1750 of −0.17&thinsp;W&thinsp;m−2, significantly weaker than the IPCC AR5 2011–1750 estimate. Differences are attributable to several factors, including stronger absorption by organic aerosol, updated parameterization of BC absorption, and reduced sulfate cooling. The trend towards a weaker RFari over recent years is more pronounced than in the IPCC AR5, illustrating the importance of capturing recent regional emission changes.</p

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations

Lecithin : cholesterol acyltransferase: symposium on 50 years of biomedical research from its discovery to latest findings

LCAT converts free cholesterol to cholesteryl esters in the process of reverse cholesterol transport. Familial LCAT deficiency (FLD) is a genetic disease that was first described by Kaare R. Norum and Egil Gjone in 1967. This report is a summary from a 2017 symposium where Dr. Norum recounted the history of FLD and leading experts on LCAT shared their results. The Tesmer laboratory shared structural findings on LCAT and the close homolog, lysosomal phospholipase A2. Results from studies of FLD patients in Finland, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were presented, as well as the status of a patient registry. Drs. Kuivenhoven and Calabresi presented data from carriers of genetic mutations suggesting that FLD does not necessarily accelerate atherosclerosis. Dr. Ng shared that LCAT-null mice were protected from diet-induced obesity, insulin resistance, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Dr. Zhou presented multiple innovations for increasing LCAT activity for therapeutic purposes, whereas Dr. Remaley showed results from treatment of an FLD patient with recombinant human LCAT (rhLCAT). Dr. Karathanasis showed that rhLCAT infusion in mice stimulates cholesterol efflux and suggested that it could also enhance cholesterol efflux from macrophages. While the role of LCAT in atherosclerosis remains elusive, the consensus is that a continued study of both the enzyme and disease will lead toward better treatments for patients with heart disease and FLD.Peer reviewe

Lecithin:cholesterol acyltransferase:symposium on 50 years of biomedical research from its discovery to latest findings

LCAT converts free cholesterol to cholesteryl esters in the process of reverse cholesterol transport. Familial LCAT deficiency (FLD) is a genetic disease that was first described by Kaare R. Norum and Egil Gjone in 1967. This report is a summary from a 2017 symposium where Dr. Norum recounted the history of FLD and leading experts on LCAT shared their results. The Tesmer laboratory shared structural findings on LCAT and the close homolog, lysosomal phospholipase A2. Results from studies of FLD patients in Finland, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were presented, as well as the status of a patient registry. Drs. Kuivenhoven and Calabresi presented data from carriers of genetic mutations suggesting that FLD does not necessarily accelerate atherosclerosis. Dr. Ng shared that LCAT-null mice were protected from diet-induced obesity, insulin resistance, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Dr. Zhou presented multiple innovations for increasing LCAT activity for therapeutic purposes, whereas Dr. Remaley showed results from treatment of an FLD patient with recombinant human LCAT (rhLCAT). Dr. Karathanasis showed that rhLCAT infusion in mice stimulates cholesterol efflux and suggested that it could also enhance cholesterol efflux from macrophages. While the role of LCAT in atherosclerosis remains elusive, the consensus is that a continued study of both the enzyme and disease will lead toward better treatments for patients with heart disease and FLD.</p

Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution

Long-term weight change and risk of breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

BACKGROUND: The role of obesity and weight change in breast-cancer development is complex and incompletely understood. We investigated long-term weight change and breast-cancer risk by body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and hormone-receptor status. METHODS: Using data on weight collected at three different time points from women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we investigated the association between weight change from age 20 years until middle adulthood and risk of breast cancer. RESULTS: In total, 150 257 women with a median age of 51 years at cohort entry were followed for an average of 14 years (standard deviation = 3.9) during which 6532 breast-cancer cases occurred. Compared with women with stable weight (±2.5 kg), long-term weight gain >10 kg was positively associated with postmenopausal breast-cancer risk in women who were lean at age 20 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.22-1.65] in ever HRT users (HR = 1.23; 1.04-1.44), in never HRT users (HR = 1.40; 1.16-1.68) and in oestrogen-and-progesterone-receptor-positive (ER+PR+) breast cancer (HR = 1.46; 1.15-1.85). CONCLUSION: Long-term weight gain was positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer in women who were lean at age 20, both in HRT ever users and non-users, and hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer