Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey

As it is possible to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), it is suitable to apply this method to the chaotic series having nonlinear component. Therefore, in this study, we propose to employ ANN method for high volatility Turkish TL/US dollar exchange rate series and the results show that ANN method has the best forecasting accuracy with respect to time series models, such as seasonal ARIMA and ARCH models. The suggestions about the details of the usage of ANN method are also made for the exchange rate of Turkey.Activation function, ARIMA, ARCH, Artificial neural network, Chaotic series, Exchange rate, Forecasting, Time series

Observation of γγ → ττ in proton-proton collisions and limits on the anomalous electromagnetic moments of the τ lepton

The production of a pair of τ leptons via photon–photon fusion, γγ → ττ, is observed for the f irst time in proton–proton collisions, with a significance of 5.3 standard deviations. This observation is based on a data set recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. Events with a pair of τ leptons produced via photon–photon fusion are selected by requiring them to be back-to-back in the azimuthal direction and to have a minimum number of charged hadrons associated with their production vertex. The τ leptons are reconstructed in their leptonic and hadronic decay modes. The measured fiducial cross section of γγ → ττ is σfid obs = 12.4+3.8 −3.1 fb. Constraints are set on the contributions to the anomalous magnetic moment (aτ) and electric dipole moments (dτ) of the τ lepton originating from potential effects of new physics on the γττ vertex: aτ = 0.0009+0.0032 −0.0031 and |dτ| < 2.9×10−17ecm (95% confidence level), consistent with the standard model

The Association Between Familial Risk and Brain Abnormalities Is Disease Specific: An ENIGMA-Relatives Study of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

Background: Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder share genetic liability, and some structural brain abnormalities are common to both conditions. First-degree relatives of patients with schizophrenia (FDRs-SZ) show similar brain abnormalities to patients, albeit with smaller effect sizes. Imaging findings in first-degree relatives of patients with bipolar disorder (FDRs-BD) have been inconsistent in the past, but recent studies report regionally greater volumes compared with control subjects. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of global and subcortical brain measures of 6008 individuals (1228 FDRs-SZ, 852 FDRs-BD, 2246 control subjects, 1016 patients with schizophrenia, 666 patients with bipolar disorder) from 34 schizophrenia and/or bipolar disorder family cohorts with standardized methods. Analyses were repeated with a correction for intracranial volume (ICV) and for the presence of any psychopathology in the relatives and control subjects. Results: FDRs-BD had significantly larger ICV (d = +0.16, q <.05 corrected), whereas FDRs-SZ showed smaller thalamic volumes than control subjects (d = −0.12, q <.05 corrected). ICV explained the enlargements in the brain measures in FDRs-BD. In FDRs-SZ, after correction for ICV, total brain, cortical gray matter, cerebral white matter, cerebellar gray and white matter, and thalamus volumes were significantly smaller; the cortex was thinner (d < −0.09, q <.05 corrected); and third ventricle was larger (d = +0.15, q <.05 corrected). The findings were not explained by psychopathology in the relatives or control subjects. Conclusions: Despite shared genetic liability, FDRs-SZ and FDRs-BD show a differential pattern of structural brain abnormalities, specifically a divergent effect in ICV. This may imply that the neurodevelopmental trajectories leading to brain anomalies in schizophrenia or bipolar disorder are distinct

A method proposal for monitoring the microclimatic change in an urban area

It is known that changes in urban surface characteristics lead to different urban climates. The surrounding environment directly affects thermal comfort and human behavior. In this respect, for sustainable urban growth, the evaluation of urbanization together with climate change from past to present is also important for planning. The main aim of the study is to propose a retrospective GIS-based change detection method for the monitoring of urban climate change by using satellite images. Two regions with a diameter of 1 km where there are significant constructional changes in Istanbul were selected as the study areas. The comparisons were made through Landsat thermal images during summer between the years 2007 and 2017. The function of the model proposed in the study was tested by evaluating whether the expected climatic changes could be achieved against the constructional changes that took place in the region. The correlations between the regions that get extremely hot/cold and the constructional change areas were examined by the bivariate method. The results showed that the correlations could reach up to a high level when important changes occurred in the areas

Investigation of the effects of wetlands on micro-climate

Regulation of the microclimatic structure of a region by using land use planning is one of the important strategies, which is used to fight against climate change. The climatic structures of regions are also affected by wetlands as well as land use types. In the present study, based on this information, the micro-climatic effects at the 1 km and 10 km periphery of three dam lakes and two lakes (imranli Reservoir, Golova Reservoir, Dorteylul Reservoir, Lake Hafik and Lake Todurge), which are located within the boundaries of Sivas province, were investigated. Analyses were made using GIS (geographic information systems) and remote sensing techniques. The temperature values are obtained from the Landsat TM-5 images of 2007 summer season which belong to June 18, July 4, July 20, August 5. The calculated surface temperatures were related to the buffer areas of wetlands and land use classes. Buffer areas were formed of 2 types, for 10 km every 500 m and for 1 km every 100 m for each wetland. These buffer areas were cut by 45-degree angles within themselves and divided into 8 zones to increase accuracy by minimizing the effects of other factors (land use, topography, etc.) in the analyses. Analyses were performed separately for each circular zone and each land use. The results were statistically tested in 95% confidence interval. With the help of this study, the necessity of climate-sensitive land use planning was emphasized

Examining the usability of the archaeological predictive maps based on least cost path analysis: A case study of Sivas, Central District

GIS based archaeological predictive map is a technique used in the field of cultural heritage management and archaeological location analysis. In addition to time and cost management, it provides significant advantages in the planning and implementation of archaeological studies in a specific area. Also, the application of predictive maps in surveys will enable faster detection of archaeological sites that have been rapidly destroyed by illicit excavations in recent years. The rich archaeological potential of Sivas province has been revealed by surveys. The city, Turkey's second largest province in terms of surface area, has regions that have not yet been completely investigated. In this study, an archaeological predictive model was created using the least-cost path analysis (LCPA) for the central district of Sivas (Central Turkey). Within the boundaries of the study area, 23 archaeological sites dated to the 2nd Millenium BC and 30 dated to the Iron Age were used as input points. For the 2nd Millenium BC, 18 sites from the subsequent periods and for the Iron Age, 12 sites from the post-iron age periods were chosen as control points. A Least cost path (LCP) network between these sites was created by using the topography of the study area, and the archaeological sites (mound, slope settlement, hilltop settlement, tumulus) that were selected as the input points. The relationship between the control points and the path network is examined separately for both periods and it has been determined that more than 90% of the control points are within the 1 km. Periphery of this network, more than 80% are at the first 500 m. periphery and more than 20% are at 50 m. periphery. The results show that an effective predictive model can be created using LCPA

Determination of Paragliding Fields with GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process

Nowadays, people living in the city tend to want to get away from the city. This situation is leading to an ever increasing interest in nature tourism and an orientation to outside sports. One of the most popular nature sports is paragliding. In this study, paragliding fields were automatically determined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach based on Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Model criteria were decided with the help of international technical requirements for flying and the expert opinions of an experienced pilot. While international conditions were used for the definition of easy and moderate fields, difficult conditions were defined with the guidance of the experienced paragliding pilot. According to the results of the GIS-based system created, 10 out of the designated target points were randomly visited. The test flight was performed in the field by a professional paragliding pilot with an experienced pilot license. According to the results obtained, 9 fields were determined as flight areas. Consequently, a method has been developed in order to help determine alternative paragliding fields.Scientific Research Project Fund of Sivas Cumhuriyet University [CUBAP M 710]Scientific Research Project Fund of Sivas Cumhuriyet University with the project number CUBAP M 710 was received for this study

A Study on the Cooling Capacities of Urban Parks and Their Interactions with the Surrounding Urban Patterns

In this study, the climatic interactions between parks and the urban pattern surrounding them were investigated by sampling from two urban parks which are located in the Kadikoy district of Istanbul. Parks are very close to each other but their surrounding areas are different from each other in terms of the building density and the urban pattern. The analyses were carried out by examining the relationships between surface temperatures, distances to the park, and zones. Surface temperature/park distance correlations were examined in different zones by the bivariate method at a 0.01 significance level, and it was observed that the parks displayed different correlations in different pattern types and again each pattern type exhibited different graphics in temperature/distance scatter plots. When the results were evaluated from a climatic perspective, it was seen that a street with trees was more effective than a park area that has a weak plantation. On the other hand, the results also showed that the building geometries can cause the formation of cool islands. So, the study revealed that street planting and urban design are as important as the landscape design of park areas in terms of the cooling of the city

Can 18Fluoro-deoxy-glukose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography be a useful for decision of elective surgery in thoracic aortic aneurysm

Thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) should be treated before the complications with prophylactic surgery. However, important number of ruptures have been occurred below the cut-off size for surgery. In addition, in some cases, who in the cut-off value limit, decision of surgery may sometimes be difficult. 18Fluoro-deoxy-glukose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18FDG-PET/CT) may useful such situations. We present a case that, TAA in 18FDG-PET/CT in a patient with larynx carcinoma. He had a TAA with near the cut-off value and increased metabolic activity in baseline imaging. After 3 months, SUVmax value increased and elective surgery was performed. We think that aneurysms may be another pathology that 18FDG-PET/CT potentially be useful apart from imaging malignant diseases