An improved estimate of daily precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis

Precipitation is an essential climate variable and a fundamental part of theglobal water cycle. Given its importance to society, precipitation is oftenassessed in climate monitoring activities, such as in those led by the Coperni-cus Climate Change Service (C3S). To undertake these activities, C3S predomi-nantly uses ERA5 reanalysis precipitation. Research has shown that short-range forecasts for precipitation made from this reanalysis can provide valu-able estimates of the actual (observed) precipitation in extratropical regionsbut can be less useful in the tropics. While some of these limitations will bereduced with future reanalyses because of the latest advancements, there ispotentially a more immediate way to improve the precipitation estimate.This is to use the precipitation modelled in the Four-Dimensional Variational(4D-Var) data assimilation window of the reanalysis, and it is the aim of thisstudy to evaluate this approach. Using observed 24-h precipitation accumula-tions at 5637 stations from 2001 to 2020, results show that smaller root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and mean absolute errors are generally foundby using the ERA5 4D-Var precipitation. For example, for all available daysfrom 2001 to 2020, 87.5% of stations have smaller RMSEs. These improvementsare driven by reduced random errors in the 4D-Var precipitation because it isbetter constrained by observations, which are themselves sensitive to orinfluence precipitation. However, there are regions (e.g., Europe) where largerbiases occur, and via the decomposition of the Stable Equitable Error inProbability Space score, this is shown to be because the 4D-Var precipitationhas a wetter bias on ‘dry’ days than the standard ERA5 short-range forecasts.The findings also highlight that the 4D-Var precipitation does improve thediscrimination of ‘heavy’ observed events. In conclusion, an improved ERA5precipitation estimate is largely obtainable, and these results could proveuseful for C3S activities and for future reanalyses, including ERA

The fast response of volcano-seismic activity to intense precipitation: Triggering of primary volcanic activity by rainfall at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

One-minute resolution time series of rainfall and seismic data from the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat are analysed to explore the mechanism of external forcing of volcanic eruptions by rainfall over three years of activity. The real-time seismic amplitude (RSAM) shows a narrow, statistically significant, peak within 30 min after the start of intense rainfall events, and a much broader peak with a lag of 6?40 h. The classified seismic events indicate that the volcanic response to rainfall begins at the surface and gradually penetrates deeper into the dome, as there is an increase in the pseudo-magnitude of: surface rockfall events (including pyroclastic flows) with lags from the first 30 min to 40 h, long-period rockfalls (from shallow degassing) at lags of 4 and 14 h, and long-period and hybrid events (source depth approximately 1 km) with lags at 14 and 24 h after the start of rainfall events. There was no rainfall-related change in deeper, volcano-tectonic activity. There was no change in the frequency of any type of classified event, indicating that the rainfall acts to modulate existing, internal processes, rather than generating new events itself. These robust results are due to many (229) different rainfall events, and not just to a few, large magnitude cases. The rainfalltriggered volcanic activity examined here is consistent with a model of fast, shallow interactions with rainfall at the dome surface, after which, a deeper dome collapse follows

Thermal structure of a gas-permeable lava dome and timescale separation in its response to perturbation

The thermal boundary layer at the surface of a volcanic lava dome is investigated through a continuum model of the thermodynamic advection diffusion processes resulting from magmatic gas flow through the dome matrix. The magmatic gas mass flux, porosity and permeability of the rock are identified as key parameters. New, theoretical, nonlinear steady-state thermal profiles are reported which give a realistic surface temperature of 210 degC for a region of lava dome surface through which a gas flux of 3.5 x 10-3 kg s-1 m-2 passes. This contrasts favourably with earlier purely diffusive thermal models, which cool too quickly. Results are presented for time-dependent perturbations of the steady states as a response to: changes in surface pressure, a sudden rockfall from the lava dome surface, and a change in the magmatic gas mass flux at depth. Together with a generalized analysis using the method of multiple scales, this identifies two characteristic time scales associated with the thermal evolution of a dome carapace: a short time scale of several minutes, over which the magmatic gas mass flux, density, and pressure change to a new quasi-steady-state, and a longer time scale of several days, over which the thermal profile changes to a new equilibrium distribution. Over the longer time scale the dynamic properties of the dome continue to evolve, but only in slavish response to the ongoing temperature evolution. In the light of this time scale separation, the use of surface temperature measurements to infer changes in the magmatic gas flux for use in volcanic hazard prediction is discussed

c-Axis tunneling in YBa2Cu3O7-\delta/PrBa2Cu3O7-\delta superlattices

In this work we report c-axis conductance measurements done on a superlattice based on a stack of 2 layers YBa2Cu3O{7-\delta} and 7 layers PrBa2Cu3O{7-\delta} (2:7). We find that these quasi-2D structures show no clear superconducting coupling along the c-axis. Instead, we observe tunneling with a gap of \Delta_c=5.0\pm 0.5 meV for the direction perpendicular to the superconducting planes. The conductance spectrum show well defined quasi-periodic structures which are attributed to the superlattice structure. From this data we deduce a low temperature c-axis coherence length of \xi_c=0.24\pm 0.03 nm.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.

Triggering of a volcanic dome collapse by rainwater infiltration

The thermodynamic processes in a one-dimensional model of a porous lava dome are considered in the presence of a rising magmatic gas flux through the void spaces and rainfall interacting with the dome surface. The steady state surface temperature of the dome depends on both magmatic gas mass flux and rainfall rate. A critical rainfall rate is determined, that cools the dome surface to 100°C. Rainfall rates above this critical value allow liquid infiltration into the void spaces of the dome, thus restricting the escape of magmatic gas. A model which restricts the gas flow through the surface predicts internal gas pressures much higher than the overburden pressure in the top few meters, approximately one hour after the onset of rainfall. For a marginally stable dome, this could cause small Vulcanian explosions, which (depending on their location) could trigger a dome collapse, on a timescale consistent with observations

Turnip mosaic potyvirus probably first spread to Eurasian brassica crops from wild orchids about 1000 years ago

Turnip mosaic potyvirus (TuMV) is probably the most widespread and damaging virus that infects cultivated brassicas worldwide. Previous work has indicated that the virus originated in western Eurasia, with all of its closest relatives being viruses of monocotyledonous plants. Here we report that we have identified a sister lineage of TuMV-like potyviruses (TuMV-OM) from European orchids. The isolates of TuMV-OM form a monophyletic sister lineage to the brassica-infecting TuMVs (TuMV-BIs), and are nested within a clade of monocotyledon-infecting viruses. Extensive host-range tests showed that all of the TuMV-OMs are biologically similar to, but distinct from, TuMV-BIs and do not readily infect brassicas. We conclude that it is more likely that TuMV evolved from a TuMV-OM-like ancestor than the reverse. We did Bayesian coalescent analyses using a combination of novel and published sequence data from four TuMV genes [helper component-proteinase protein (HC-Pro), protein 3(P3), nuclear inclusion b protein (NIb), and coat protein (CP)]. Three genes (HC-Pro, P3, and NIb), but not the CP gene, gave results indicating that the TuMV-BI viruses diverged from TuMV-OMs around 1000 years ago. Only 150 years later, the four lineages of the present global population of TuMV-BIs diverged from one another. These dates are congruent with historical records of the spread of agriculture in Western Europe. From about 1200 years ago, there was a warming of the climate, and agriculture and the human population of the region greatly increased. Farming replaced woodlands, fostering viruses and aphid vectors that could invade the crops, which included several brassica cultivars and weeds. Later, starting 500 years ago, inter-continental maritime trade probably spread the TuMV-BIs to the remainder of the world

The Multi-Object, Fiber-Fed Spectrographs for SDSS and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey

We present the design and performance of the multi-object fiber spectrographs for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and their upgrade for the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Originally commissioned in Fall 1999 on the 2.5-m aperture Sloan Telescope at Apache Point Observatory, the spectrographs produced more than 1.5 million spectra for the SDSS and SDSS-II surveys, enabling a wide variety of Galactic and extra-galactic science including the first observation of baryon acoustic oscillations in 2005. The spectrographs were upgraded in 2009 and are currently in use for BOSS, the flagship survey of the third-generation SDSS-III project. BOSS will measure redshifts of 1.35 million massive galaxies to redshift 0.7 and Lyman-alpha absorption of 160,000 high redshift quasars over 10,000 square degrees of sky, making percent level measurements of the absolute cosmic distance scale of the Universe and placing tight constraints on the equation of state of dark energy. The twin multi-object fiber spectrographs utilize a simple optical layout with reflective collimators, gratings, all-refractive cameras, and state-of-the-art CCD detectors to produce hundreds of spectra simultaneously in two channels over a bandpass covering the near ultraviolet to the near infrared, with a resolving power R = \lambda/FWHM ~ 2000. Building on proven heritage, the spectrographs were upgraded for BOSS with volume-phase holographic gratings and modern CCD detectors, improving the peak throughput by nearly a factor of two, extending the bandpass to cover 360 < \lambda < 1000 nm, and increasing the number of fibers from 640 to 1000 per exposure. In this paper we describe the original SDSS spectrograph design and the upgrades implemented for BOSS, and document the predicted and measured performances.Comment: 43 pages, 42 figures, revised according to referee report and accepted by AJ. Provides background for the instrument responsible for SDSS and BOSS spectra. 4th in a series of survey technical papers released in Summer 2012, including arXiv:1207.7137 (DR9), arXiv:1207.7326 (Spectral Classification), and arXiv:1208.0022 (BOSS Overview

The Seventh Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

This paper describes the Seventh Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), marking the completion of the original goals of the SDSS and the end of the phase known as SDSS-II. It includes 11663 deg^2 of imaging data, with most of the roughly 2000 deg^2 increment over the previous data release lying in regions of low Galactic latitude. The catalog contains five-band photometry for 357 million distinct objects. The survey also includes repeat photometry over 250 deg^2 along the Celestial Equator in the Southern Galactic Cap. A coaddition of these data goes roughly two magnitudes fainter than the main survey. The spectroscopy is now complete over a contiguous area of 7500 deg^2 in the Northern Galactic Cap, closing the gap that was present in previous data releases. There are over 1.6 million spectra in total, including 930,000 galaxies, 120,000 quasars, and 460,000 stars. The data release includes improved stellar photometry at low Galactic latitude. The astrometry has all been recalibrated with the second version of the USNO CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC-2), reducing the rms statistical errors at the bright end to 45 milli-arcseconds per coordinate. A systematic error in bright galaxy photometr is less severe than previously reported for the majority of galaxies. Finally, we describe a series of improvements to the spectroscopic reductions, including better flat-fielding and improved wavelength calibration at the blue end, better processing of objects with extremely strong narrow emission lines, and an improved determination of stellar metallicities. (Abridged)Comment: 20 pages, 10 embedded figures. Accepted to ApJS after minor correction

Reply to: New Meta- and Mega-analyses of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Schizophrenia: Do They Really Increase Our Knowledge About the Nature of the Disease Process?

This work was supported by National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering Grant No. U54EB020403 (to the ENIGMA consortium)