The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. FUNDING: The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10–24 years in the EU, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU. Methods Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State. Findings In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4–39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10–24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62–4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25–298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56–2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96–2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10–24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04–12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53–8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78–10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63–7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10–24 years substantially decreased (–40·41% [–43·00 to –37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (–40·56% [–43·16 to –37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (rs=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (rs=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (rs=–0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (rs=–0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (rs=–0·61, p=0·0005)

Development and Dissemination Strategies for Accelerating Biogas Production in Nigeria

Following the worsening energy crisis of unreliable electricity and unaffordable petroleum products coupled with the increase number of poverty-stricken people in Nigeria, the populace is desperately in need of cheap alternative energy supplies that will replace or complement the existing energy sources. Previous efforts by the government in tackling the challenge by citizenship sensitization of the need for introduction of biofuel into the country’s energy mix have not yielded the expected results because of a lack of sustained government effort. In light of the shortcomings, this study assesses the current potential of available biomass feedstock for biogas production in Nigeria, and further proposes appropriate biogas plants, depending on feedstock type and quantity, for the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Besides, the study proposes government-driven biogas development systems that could be effectively used to harness, using biogas technology, the estimated 270 TWh of potential electrical energy from 181 million tonnes of available biomass, in the advancement of electricity generation and consequent improvement of welfare in Nigeria

Development and Dissemination Strategies for Accelerating Biogas Production in Nigeria

Following the worsening energy crisis of unreliable electricity and unaffordable petroleum products coupled with the increase number of poverty-stricken people in Nigeria, the populace is desperately in need of cheap alternative energy supplies that will replace or complement the existing energy sources. Previous efforts by the government in tackling the challenge by citizenship sensitization of the need for introduction of biofuel into the country’s energy mix have not yielded the expected results because of a lack of sustained government effort. In light of the shortcomings, this study assesses the current potential of available biomass feedstock for biogas production in Nigeria, and further proposes appropriate biogas plants, depending on feedstock type and quantity, for the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Besides, the study proposes government-driven biogas development systems that could be effectively used to harness, using biogas technology, the estimated 270 TWh of potential electrical energy from 181 million tonnes of available biomass, in the advancement of electricity generation and consequent improvement of welfare in Nigeria

Development and Dissemination Strategies for Accelerating Biogas Production in Nigeria

Following the worsening energy crisis of unreliable electricity and unaffordable petroleum products coupled with the increase number of poverty-stricken people in Nigeria, the populace is desperately in need of cheap alternative energy supplies that will replace or complement the existing energy sources. Previous efforts by the government in tackling the challenge by citizenship sensitization of the need for introduction of biofuel into the country’s energy mix have not yielded the expected results because of a lack of sustained government effort. In light of the shortcomings, this study assesses the current potential of available biomass feedstock for biogas production in Nigeria, and further proposes appropriate biogas plants, depending on feedstock type and quantity, for the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Besides, the study proposes government-driven biogas development systems that could be effectively used to harness, using biogas technology, the estimated 270 TWh of potential electrical energy from 181 million tonnes of available biomass, in the advancement of electricity generation and consequent improvement of welfare in Nigeria

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10-24 years in the EU, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation