Assessment of Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique to improve the simulation of ground-level ozone over Spain

The CALIOPE air quality modelling system has been used to diagnose ground level O3 concentration for the year 2004, over the Iberian Peninsula. We investigate the improvement in the simulation of daily O3 maximum by the use of a post-processing such as the Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique. The Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique is a recursive algorithm to optimally estimate bias-adjustment terms from previous measurements and model results. The bias-adjustment technique improved the simulation of daily O3 maximum for the entire year and the all the stations considered over the whole domain. The corrected simulation presents improvements in statistical indicators such as correlation, root mean square error, mean bias, and gross error. After the post-processing the exceedances of O3 concentration limits, as established by the European Directive 2008/50/CE, are better reproduced and the uncertainty of the modelling system, as established by the European Directive 2008/50/CE, is reduced from 20% to 7.5%. Such uncertainty in the model results is under the established EU limit of the 50%. Significant improvements in the O3 timing and amplitude of the daily cycle are also observed after the post-processing. The systematic improvements in the O3 maximum simulations suggest that the Kalman filter post-processing method is a suitable technique to reproduce accurate estimate of ground-level O3 concentration. With this study we evince that the adjusted O3 concentrations obtained after the post-process of the results from the CALIOPE system are a reliable means for real near time O3 forecasts

Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century

Shifts in the day of peak net primary production (NPP) were detected in different biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic (25–65° N). Most provinces displayed a shift toward earlier peak NPP, with the largest change points in the 21st century and in the northern parts of the domain. Furthermore, the occurrences of the first day with a mixed-layer depth (MLD) shallower than 40 m and the day of peak NPP are positively correlated over most of the domain. As was the case for the day of peak NPP, the largest change points for the day of MLD shallower than 40 m occur around or after the year 2000. Daily output from two fully coupled CMIP6 Earth system models, EC-Earth3-CC and NorESM2-LM, for the period 1750–2100 and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, were used for the analysis. The ESM NPP data were compared with estimates derived from Carbon, Absorption and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) satellite-based data. The ESMs showed significant differences from the CAFE model, though the timing of peak NPP was well captured for most provinces. The largest change points in the day of peak NPP occur earlier in EC-Earth3-CC than in NorESM2-LM. Although SSP5-8.5 is a scenario with very high warming, EC-Earth3-CC generates change points for most provinces in the early part of the 21st century, before the warming has deviated far from lower-emissions scenarios. NorESM2-LM displays the largest change points centered around the mid 21st century, with two out of eight provinces displaying the largest change point before the year 2050. The early timing of the detected shifts in some provinces in both ESMs suggests that similar shifts could already have been initiated or could start in the near future. This highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in the North Atlantic.</p

The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond

The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.Peer reviewe