Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations

Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric PCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a - perhaps accelerated - continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere-ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere-ocean system

Oxygen minimum zone variations in the tropical Pacific during the Holocene

We performed simulations with a global model of ocean biogeochemistry forced with orbitally driven anomalies of oceanic conditions for the mid-Holocene, known as Holocene climate optimum, to investigate natural variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (EEP OMZ). While the global mean temperature during the mid-Holocene was likely slightly higher than the 1961–1990 mean, the sea surface temperature in the EEP was slightly lower. Mid-Holocene oxygen concentrations in the EEP OMZ are generally increased, locally by up to 50%, and the EEP OMZ volume was, depending on definition of the OMZ threshold, at least 6% lower. These higher oxygen levels are the combined result of competing physical and biogeochemical processes. Our results imply that mechanisms for past changes in the EEP OMZ intensity and extension can differ from the global warming driven decline in oxygen levels observed for the recent decades and predicted for the future

Methods to evaluate CaCO3 cycle modules in coupled global biogeochemical ocean models

The marine CaCO3 cycle is an important component of the oceanic carbon system and directly affects the cycling of natural and the uptake of anthropogenic carbon. In numerical models of the marine carbon cycle, the CaCO3 cycle component is often evaluated against the observed distribution of alkalinity. Alkalinity varies in response to the formation and remineralization of CaCO3 and organic matter. However, it also has a large conservative component, which may strongly be affected by a deficient representation of ocean physics (circulation, evaporation, and precipitation) in models. Here we apply a global ocean biogeochemical model run into preindustrial steady state featuring a number of idealized tracers, explicitly capturing the model's CaCO3 dissolution, organic matter remineralization, and various preformed properties (alkalinity, oxygen, phosphate). We compare the suitability of a variety of measures related to the CaCO3 cycle, including alkalinity (TA), potential alkalinity and TA*, the latter being a measure of the time-integrated imprint of CaCO3 dissolution in the ocean. TA* can be diagnosed from any data set of TA, temperature, salinity, oxygen and phosphate. We demonstrate the sensitivity of total and potential alkalinity to the differences in model and ocean physics, which disqualifies them as accurate measures of biogeochemical processes. We show that an explicit treatment of preformed alkalinity (TA0) is necessary and possible. In our model simulations we implement explicit model tracers of TA0 and TA*. We find that the difference between modelled true TA* and diagnosed TA* was below 10% (25%) in 73% (81%) of the ocean's volume. In the Pacific (and Indian) Oceans the RMSE of A* is below 3 (4) mmol TA m−3, even when using a global rather than regional algorithms to estimate preformed alkalinity. Errors in the Atlantic Ocean are significantly larger and potential improvements of TA0 estimation are discussed. Applying the TA* approach to the output of three state-of-the-art ocean carbon cycle models, we demonstrate the advantage of explicitly taking preformed alkalinity into account for separating the effects of biogeochemical processes and circulation on the distribution of alkalinity. In particular, we suggest to use the TA* approach for CaCO3 cycle model evaluation

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding ?0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth >500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding ?0.2 (?0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation

Contribution of riverine nutrients to the silicon biogeochemistry of the global ocean – a model study

Continental shelf seas are known to support a large fraction of the global primary production. Yet, they are mostly ignored or neglected in global biogeochemical models. A number of processes that control the transfer of dissolved nutrients from rivers to the open ocean remain poorly understood. This applies in particular to dissolved silica which drives the growth of diatoms that form a large part of the phytoplankton biomass and are thus an important contributor to export production of carbon. <br><br> Here, the representation of the biogeochemical cycling along continents is improved by coupling a high resolution database of riverine fluxes of nutrients to the global biogeochemical ocean general circulation model HAMOCC5-OM. Focusing on silicon (Si), but including the whole suite of nutrients – carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in various forms – inputs are implemented in the model at coastal coupling points using the COSCAT global database of 156 mega-river-ensemble catchments from Meybeck et al. (2006). The catchments connect to the ocean through coastal segments according to three sets of criteria: natural limits, continental shelf topography, and geophysical dynamics. <br><br> According to the model the largest effects on nutrient concentrations occur in hot spots such as the Amazon plume, the Arctic – with high nutrient inputs in relation to its total volume, and areas that encounter the largest increase in human activity, e.g., Southern Asia

Improving ENSO Simulations and Predictions Through Ocean State Estimation

Simulations and seasonal forecasts of tropical Pacific SST and subsurface fields that are based on the global Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean-state estimation procedure are investigated. As compared to similar results from a traditional ENSO simulation and forecast procedure, the hindcast of the constrained ocean state is significantly closer to observed surface and subsurface conditions. The skill of the 12-month lead SST forecast in the equatorial Pacific is comparable in both approaches. The optimization appears to have better skill in the SST anomaly correlations, suggesting that the initial ocean conditions and forcing corrections calculated by the ocean-state estimation do have a positive impact on the predictive skill. However, the optimized forecast skill is currently limited by the low quality of the statistical atmosphere. Progress is expected from optimizing a coupled model over a longer time interval with the coupling statistics being part of the control vector

Preformed and regenerated phosphate in ocean general circulation models: can right total concentrations be wrong?

Phosphate distributions simulated by seven state-of-the-art biogeochemical ocean circulation models are evaluated against observations of global ocean nutrient distributions. The biogeochemical models exhibit different structural complexities, ranging from simple nutrient-restoring to multi-nutrient NPZD type models. We evaluate the simulations using the observed volume distribution of phosphate. The errors in these simulated volume class distributions are significantly larger when preformed phosphate (or regenerated phosphate) rather than total phosphate is considered. Our analysis reveals that models can achieve similarly good fits to observed total phosphate distributions for a very different partitioning into preformed and regenerated nutrient components. This has implications for the strength and potential climate sensitivity of the simulated biological carbon pump. We suggest complementing the use of total nutrient distributions for assessing model skill by an evaluation of the respective preformed and regenerated nutrient components

Observation of a stronger-than-adiabatic change of light trapped in an ultrafast switched GaAs-AlAs microcavity

We study the time-resolved reflectivity spectrum of a switched planar GaAs-AlAs microcavity. Between 5 and 40 ps after the switching (pump) pulse we observe a strong excess probe reflectivity and a change of the frequency of light trapped in the cavity up to 5 linewidths away from the cavity resonance. This frequency change does not adiabatically follow the fast-changing cavity resonance. The frequency change is attributed to an accumulated phase change due to the time-dependent refractive index. An analytical model predicts dynamics in qualitative agreement with the experiments, and points to crucial parameters that control future applications.Comment: Discussed effect of probe bandwidth. Included functional forms of n(z) and R(z