Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR

Post-transcriptional Gene Silencing Induced by Short Interfering RNAs in Cultured Transgenic Plant Cells

Short interfering RNA (siRNA) is widely used for studying post-transcriptional gene silencing and holds great promise as a tool for both identifying function of novel genes and validating drug targets. Two siRNA fragments (siRNA-a and -b), which were designed against different specific areas of coding region of the same target green fluorescent protein (GFP) gene, were used to silence GFP expression in cultured gfp transgenic cells of rice (Oryza sativa L.; OS), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.; GH), Fraser fir [Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir; AF], and Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana Mill.; PV). Differential gene silencing was observed in the bombarded transgenic cells between two siRNAs, and these results were consistent with the inactivation of GFP confirmed by laser scanning microscopy, Northern blot, and siRNA analysis in tested transgenic cell cultures. These data suggest that siRNA-mediated gene inactivation can be the siRNA specific in different plant species. These results indicate that siRNA is a highly specific tool for targeted gene knockdown and for establishing siRNA-mediated gene silencing, which could be a reliable approach for large-scale screening of gene function and drug target validation

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance

Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond

The framework for the new scenarios being developed for climate research calls for the development of a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are meant to differ in terms of their challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. In order for the scenario process to fulfill its goals, the research and policy communities need to develop a shared understanding of these concepts. This paper focuses on challenges to adaptation. We begin by situating this new concept in the context of the rich literatures related to inter alia adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience. We argue that a proper characterization of challenges to adaptation requires a rich, exploration of the concept, which goes beyond mere description. This has a number of implications for the operationalization of the concept in the basic and extended versions of the SSPs. First, the elements comprising challenges to adaptation must include a wide range of socioeconomic and even some (non-climatic) biophysical factors. Second, careful consideration must be given to differences in these factors across scales, as well as cross-scale interactions. Third, any representation of the concept will require both quantitative and qualitative elements. The scenario framework offers the opportunity for the SSPs and full scenarios to be of greater value than has been the case in past exercises to both Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) researchers, but this will require a renegotiation of the traditional, primarily unidirectional relationship between the two communities

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond

The framework for the new scenarios being developed for climate research callsfor the development of a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are meant todiffer in terms of their challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. In order for thescenario process to fulfill its goals, the research and policy communities need to develop ashared understanding of these concepts. This paper focuses on challenges to adaptation. Webegin by situating this new concept in the context of the rich literatures related to inter aliaadaptation, vulnerability, and resilience. We argue that a proper characterization of challenges to adaptation requires a rich, exploration of the concept, which goes beyond meredescription. This has a number of implications for the operationalization of the concept inthe basic and extended versions of the SSPs. First, the elements comprising challenges toadaptation must include a wide range of socioeconomic and even some (non-climatic)biophysical factors. Second, careful consideration must be given to differences in thesefactors across scales, as well as cross-scale interactions. Third, any representation of theconcept will require both quantitative and qualitative elements. The scenario frameworkoffers the opportunity for the SSPs and full scenarios to be of greater value than has been thecase in past exercises to both Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) researchers, but this will require a renegotiation of thetraditional, primarily unidirectional relationship between the two communities

Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

To halt climate change, we must reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions to net zero. Any emission sources must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. The integrated scenario framework represents how socio-economic trends and social values interact with biophysical systems in exploring future climate change and decarbonization pathways. This primer introduces the integrated scenario framework and its application to explore options for offsetting emissions with CDR