Decomposition of Explained Variation in the Linear Mixed Model

In the linear mixed model (LMM), the simultaneous assessment and comparison of dispersion relevance of explanatory variables associated with fixed and random effects remains an important open practical problem. Based on the restricted maximum likelihood equations in the variance components form of the LMM, we prove a proper decomposition of the sum of squares of the dependent variable into unbiased estimators of interpretable estimands of explained variation. This result leads to a natural extension of the well-known adjusted coefficient of determination to the LMM. Further, we allocate the novel unbiased estimators of explained variation to specific contributions of covariates associated with fixed and random effects within a single model fit. These parameter-wise explained variations constitute easily interpretable quantities, assessing dispersion relevance of covariates associated with both fixed and random effects on a common scale, thus allowing for a covariate ranking. For illustration, we contrast the variation explained by subjects and time in the longitudinal sleep deprivation study. By comparing the dispersion relevance of population characteristics and spatial levels, we determine literacy as a major driver of income inequality in Burkina Faso. Finally, we develop a novel relevance plot to visualize the dispersion relevance of high-dimensional genomic markers in Arabidopsis thaliana

From estimation to prediction of genomic variances : allowing for linkage disequilibrium and unbiasedness

In Chapter 1 of this thesis, we briefly summarize the theory about the genetic variance from quantitative genetics, the genomic variance in linear regression models, and relate these quantities to the ``Missing Heritability''. In Chapter 2, we introduce novel concepts of estimating the genomic variance in accordance to quantitative genetics theory, i.e. the source of the genetic variability stems from the variability in marker-genotypes and not from the randomness of the marker effects. We distinguish the analysis between Fixed Effect Models, Bayesian Regression Models and Random Regression Models. We adapt the estimators for the genomic variance to the specific model set-ups and show that the resulting quantities explicitly include the contribution of linkage disequilibrium. We substantiate our theoretical findings in simulations studies in Chapter 3 by showing that our approach enables a reduction of the ``Missing Heritability''

Breath, urine, and blood measurements as biological exposure indices of short-term inhalation exposure to methanol

Due to their transient nature, short-term exposures can be difficult to detect and quantify using conventional monitoring techniques. Biological monitoring may be capable of registering such exposures and may also be used to estimate important toxicological parameters. This paper investigates relationships between methanol concentrations in the blood, urine, and breath of volunteers exposed to methanol vapor at 800 ppm for periods of 0.5, 1, 2, and 8 h. The results indicate factors that must be considered for interpretation of the results of biological monitoring. For methanol, concentrations are not proportional to the exposure duration due to metabolic and other elimination processes that occur concurrently with the exposure. First-order clearance models can be used with blood, breath, or urine concentrations to estimate exposures if the time that has elapsed since the exposure and the model parameters are known. The 0.5 to 2-h periods of exposure were used to estimate the half-life of methanol. Blood data gave a half-life of 1.44±0.33 h. Comparable but slightly more variable results were obtained using urine data corrected for voiding time (1.55±0.67 h) and breath data corrected for mucous membrane desorption (1.40±0.38 h). Methanol concentrations in blood lagged some 15–30 min behind the termination of exposure, and concentrations in urine were further delayed. Although breath sampling may be convenient, breath concentrations reflect end-expired or alveolar air only if subjects are in a methanol-free environment for 30 min or more after the exposure. At earlier times, breath concentrations included contributions from airway desorption or diffusion processes. As based on multicompartmental models, the desorption processes have half-lives ranging between 0.6 and 5 min. Preliminary estimates of the mucous membrane reservoir indicate contributions of under 10% for a 0.5-h exposure and smaller effects for longer periods of exposure.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42238/1/420-71-5-325_80710325.pd

Results of the first Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99 (2018): 513-520, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0323.1.Seasonally ice-covered marginal seas are among the most difficult regions in the Arctic to study. Physical constraints imposed by the variable presence of sea ice in all stages of growth and melt make the upper water column and air–sea ice interface especially challenging to observe. At the same time, the flow of solar energy through Alaska’s marginal seas is one of the most important regulators of their weather and climate, sea ice cover, and ecosystems. The deficiency of observing systems in these areas hampers forecast services in the region and is a major contributor to large uncertainties in modeling and related climate projections. The Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment strives to fill this observation gap with an array of innovative autonomous floats and other near-real-time weather and ocean sensing systems. These capabilities allow continuous monitoring of the seasonally evolving state of the Chukchi Sea, including its heat content. Data collected by this project are distributed in near–real time on project websites and on the Global Telecommunications System (GTS), with the objectives of (i) providing timely delivery of observations for use in weather and sea ice forecasts, for model, and for reanalysis applications and (ii) supporting ongoing research activities across disciplines. This research supports improved forecast services that protect and enhance the safety and economic viability of maritime and coastal community activities in Alaska. Data are free and open to all (see www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-heat/).This work was supported by NOAA Ocean and Atmospheric Research and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063 and by the Innovative Technology for Arctic Exploration (ITAE) program at JISAO/PMEL. Jayne, Robbins, and Ekholm were supported by ONR (N00014-12-10110)

Lenalidomide and dexamethasone in relapsed/refractory immunoglobulin light chain (AL) amyloidosis: results from a large cohort of patients with long follow-up.

SummaryLenalidomide and dexamethasone (RD) is a standard treatment in relapsed/refractory immunoglobulin light chain (AL) amyloidosis (RRAL). We retrospectively investigated toxicity, efficacy and prognostic markers in 260 patients with RRAL. Patients received a median of two prior treatment lines (68% had been bortezomib‐refractory; 33% had received high‐dose melphalan). The median treatment duration was four cycles. The 3‐month haematological response rate was 31% [very good haematological response (VGHR) in 18%]. The median follow‐up was 56·5 months and the median overall survival (OS) and haematological event‐free survival (haemEFS) were 32 and 9 months. The 2‐year dialysis rate was 15%. VGHR resulted in better OS (62 vs. 26 months, P < 0·001). Cardiac progression predicted worse survival (22 vs. 40 months, P = 0·027), although N‐terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) increase was frequently observed. Multivariable analysis identified these prognostic factors: NT‐proBNP for OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1·71; P < 0·001]; gain 1q21 for haemEFS (HR 1·68, P = 0·014), with a trend for OS (HR 1·47, P = 0·084); difference between involved and uninvolved free light chains (dFLC) and light chain isotype for OS (HR 2·22, P < 0·001; HR 1·62, P = 0·016) and haemEFS (HR 1·88, P < 0·001; HR 1·59, P = 0·008). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (HR 0·71, P = 0·004) and 24‐h proteinuria (HR 1·10, P = 0·004) were prognostic for renal survival. In conclusion, clonal and organ biomarkers at baseline identify patients with favourable outcome, while VGHR and cardiac progression define prognosis during RD treatment

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

How the redox state regulates immunity

Oxidative stress is defined as an imbalance beween the levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and antioxidant defences. The view of oxidative stress as a cause of cell damage has evolved over the past few decades to a much more nuanced view of the role of oxidative changes in cell physiology. This is no more evident than in the field of immunity, where oxidative changes are now known to regulate many aspects of the immune response, and inflammatory pathways in particular. Our understanding of redox regulation of immunity now encompasses not only increases in reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, but also changes in the activities of oxidoreductase enzymes. These enzymes are important regulators of immune pathways both via changes in their redox activity, but also via other more recently identified cytokine-like functions. The emerging picture of redox regulation of immune pathways is one of increasing complexity and while therapeutic targeting of the redox environment to treat inflammatory disease is a possibility, any such strategy is likely to be more nuanced than simply inhibiting ROS production