Bayesian Methods for Improving Credit Scoring Models

We propose a Bayesian methodology that enables banks to improve their credit scoring models by imposing prior information. As prior information, we use coefficients from credit scoring models estimated on other data sets. Through simulations, we explore the default prediction power of three Bayesian estimators in three different scenarios and find that they perform better than standard maximum likelihood estimates. We recommend that banks consider Bayesian estimation for internal and regulatory default prediction models.Credit Scoring, Bayesian Inference, Bankruptcy Prediction

volumetric characterisation and correlation to established classification systems

Objective and sensitive assessment of cartilage repair outcomes lacks suitable methods. This study investigated the feasibility of 3D ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM) to quantify cartilage repair outcomes volumetrically and their correlation with established classification systems. 32 sheep underwent bilateral treatment of a focal cartilage defect. One or two years post- operatively the repair outcomes were assessed and scored macroscopically (Outerbridge, ICRS-CRA), by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, MOCART), and histopathology (O'Driscoll, ICRS-I and ICRS-II). The UBM data were acquired after MRI and used to reconstruct the shape of the initial cartilage layer, enabling the estimation of the initial cartilage thickness and defect volume as well as volumetric parameters for defect filling, repair tissue, bone loss and bone overgrowth. The quantification of the repair outcomes revealed high variations in the initial thickness of the cartilage layer, indicating the need for cartilage thickness estimation before creating a defect. Furthermore, highly significant correlations were found for the defect filling estimated from UBM to the established classification systems. 3D visualisation of the repair regions showed highly variable morphology within single samples. This raises the question as to whether macroscopic, MRI and histopathological scoring provide sufficient reliability. The biases of the individual methods will be discussed within this context. UBM was shown to be a feasible tool to evaluate cartilage repair outcomes, whereby the most important objective parameter is the defect filling. Translation of UBM into arthroscopic or transcutaneous ultrasound examinations would allow non-destructive and objective follow-up of individual patients and better comparison between the results of clinical trials

Physical activity to improve cognition in older adults: can physical activity programs enriched with cognitive challenges enhance the effects? A systematic review and meta-analysis

: EPHPP quality rating scores (DOCX 38 kb

Electronic Structure Calculation by First Principles for Strongly Correlated Electron Systems

Recent trends of ab initio studies and progress in methodologies for electronic structure calculations of strongly correlated electron systems are discussed. The interest for developing efficient methods is motivated by recent discoveries and characterizations of strongly correlated electron materials and by requirements for understanding mechanisms of intriguing phenomena beyond a single-particle picture. A three-stage scheme is developed as renormalized multi-scale solvers (RMS) utilizing the hierarchical electronic structure in the energy space. It provides us with an ab initio downfolding of the global band structure into low-energy effective models followed by low-energy solvers for the models. The RMS method is illustrated with examples of several materials. In particular, we overview cases such as dynamics of semiconductors, transition metals and its compounds including iron-based superconductors and perovskite oxides, as well as organic conductors of kappa-ET type.Comment: 44 pages including 38 figures, to appear in J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. as an invited review pape

One session of remote ischemic preconditioning does not improve vascular function in acute normobaric and chronic hypobaric hypoxia

Application of repeated short duration bouts of ischemia to the limbs, termed remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC), is a novel technique that may have protective effects on vascular function during hypoxic exposures. In separate parallel-design studies, at sea-level (SL; n=16), and after 8-12 days at high-altitude (HA; n=12; White Mountain, 3800m), participants underwent either a sham protocol or one session of 4x5 minutes of dual-thigh cuff occlusion with 5-minutes recovery. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD; ultrasound), pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP; echocardiography), and internal carotid artery flow (ICA; ultrasound) were measured at SL in normoxia and isocapnic hypoxia [end-tidal PO (PETO ) maintained to 50mmHg], and during normal breathing at HA. The hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) was measured at each location. All measures at SL and HA were obtained at baseline (BL), 1 hour, 24 hours, and 48 hours post-RIPC or sham. At SL, RIPC produced no changes in FMD, PASP, ICA flow, end-tidal gases or HVR in normoxia or hypoxia. At HA, although HVR increased 24 hours post RIPC compared to BL (2.05{plus minus}1.4 vs. 3.21{plus minus}1.2 L•min-1•%SaO2-1, p<0.01), there were no significant differences in FMD, PASP, ICA flow, resting end-tidal gases. Accordingly, a single session of RIPC is insufficient to evoke changes in peripheral, pulmonary, and cerebral vascular function in healthy adults. Although chemosensitivity may increase following RIPC at HA, this did not confer any vascular changes. The utility of a single RIPC session seems unremarkable during acute and chronic hypoxia

An individually-tailored multifactorial intervention program for older fallers in a middle-income developing country: Malaysian Falls Assessment and Intevention Trial (MyFAIT)

Background: In line with a rapidly ageing global population, the rise in the frequency of falls will lead to increased healthcare and social care costs. This study will be one of the few randomized controlled trials evaluating a multifaceted falls intervention in a low-middle income, culturally-diverse older Asian community. The primary objective of our paper is to evaluate whether individually tailored multifactorial interventions will successfully reduce the number of falls among older adults. Methods: Three hundred community-dwelling older Malaysian adults with a history of (i) two or more falls, or (ii) one injurious fall in the past 12 months will be recruited. Baseline assessment will include cardiovascular, frailty, fracture risk, psychological factors, gait and balance, activities of daily living and visual assessments. Fallers will be randomized into 2 groups: to receive tailored multifactorial interventions (intervention group); or given lifestyle advice with continued conventional care (control group). Multifactorial interventions will target 6 specific risk factors. All participants will be re-assessed after 12 months. The primary outcome measure will be fall recurrence, measured with monthly falls diaries. Secondary outcomes include falls risk factors; and psychological measures including fear of falling, and quality of life.Previous studies evaluating multifactorial interventions in falls have reported variable outcomes. Given likely cultural, personal, lifestyle and health service differences in Asian countries, it is vital that individually-tailored multifaceted interventions are evaluated in an Asian population to determine applicability of these interventions in our setting. If successful, these approaches have the potential for widespread application in geriatric healthcare services, will reduce the projected escalation of falls and fall-related injuries, and improve the quality of life of our older community

Macrofossil evidence for a rapid and severe Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction in Antarctica

Debate continues about the nature of the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction event. An abrupt crisis triggered by a bolide impact contrasts with ideas of a more gradual extinction involving flood volcanism or climatic changes. Evidence from high latitudes has also been used to suggest that the severity of the extinction decreased from low latitudes towards the poles. Here we present a record of the K–Pg extinction based on extensive assemblages of marine macrofossils (primarily new data from benthic molluscs) from a highly expanded Cretaceous–Paleogene succession: the López de Bertodano Formation of Seymour Island, Antarctica. We show that the extinction was rapid and severe in Antarctica, with no significant biotic decline during the latest Cretaceous, contrary to previous studies. These data are consistent with a catastrophic driver for the extinction, such as bolide impact, rather than a significant contribution from Deccan Traps volcanism during the late Maastrichtian

Options for post-landing extraction of solid-core samples from the NASA-ESA Mars Sample Return mission

peer reviewe

Cinnamon extract induces tumor cell death through inhibition of NFκB and AP1

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Cinnamomum cassia </it>bark is the outer skin of an evergreen tall tree belonging to the family Lauraceae containing several active components such as essential oils (cinnamic aldehyde and cinnamyl aldehyde), tannin, mucus and carbohydrate. They have various biological functions including anti-oxidant, anti-microbial, anti-inflammation, anti-diabetic and anti-tumor activity. Previously, we have reported that anti-cancer effect of cinnamon extracts is associated with modulation of angiogenesis and effector function of CD8⁺T cells. In this study, we further identified that anti-tumor effect of cinnamon extracts is also link with enhanced pro-apoptotic activity by inhibiting the activities NFκB and AP1 in mouse melanoma model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Water soluble cinnamon extract was obtained and quality of cinnamon extract was evaluated by HPLC (High Performance Liquid Chromatography) analysis. In this study, we tested anti-tumor activity and elucidated action mechanism of cinnamon extract using various types of tumor cell lines including lymphoma, melanoma, cervix cancer and colorectal cancer <it>in vitro </it>and <it>in vivo </it>mouse melanoma model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cinnamon extract strongly inhibited tumor cell proliferation <it>in vitro </it>and induced active cell death of tumor cells by up-regulating pro-apoptotic molecules while inhibiting NFκB and AP1 activity and their target genes such as <it>Bcl-2</it>, <it>BcL-xL </it>and <it>survivin</it>. Oral administration of cinnamon extract in melanoma transplantation model significantly inhibited tumor growth with the same mechanism of action observed <it>in vitro</it>.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study suggests that anti-tumor effect of cinnamon extracts is directly linked with enhanced pro-apoptotic activity and inhibition of NFκB and AP1 activities and their target genes <it>in vitro </it>and <it>in vivo </it>mouse melanoma model. Hence, further elucidation of active components of cinnamon extract could lead to development of potent anti-tumor agent or complementary and alternative medicine for the treatment of diverse cancers.</p

ZFP36L1 Negatively Regulates Erythroid Differentiation of CD34+ Hematopoietic Stem Cells by Interfering with the Stat5b Pathway

ZFP36L1 negatively regulates erythroid differentiation of human hematopoietic progenitors by directly binding the 3′ UTR of Stat5b mRNA, thereby triggering its degradation. This study shows that posttranscriptional regulation is involved in the control of hematopoietic differentiation