Refractivity and temperature climate records from multiple radio occultation satellites consistent within 0.05%

Data consistency is an important prerequisite to build radio occultation (RO) climatologies based on a combined record of data from different satellites. The presence of multiple RO receiving satellites in orbit over the same time period allows for testing this consistency. We used RO data from CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research), six FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites (Formosa Satellite Mission 3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate, F3C), and GRACE-A (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We show latitude-altitude-resolved results for an example month (October 2007) and the temporal evolution of differences in a climate record of global and monthly means from January 2007 to December 2009. Latitude- and altitude-resolved refractivity and dry temperature climatologies clearly show the influence of different sampling characteristics; monthly mean deviations from the multi-satellite mean over the altitude domain 10 km to 30 km typically reach 0.1% and 0.2 K, respectively. Nevertheless, the 3-yr average deviations (shorter for CHAMP) are less than 0.03% and 0.05 K, respectively. We find no indications for instrument degradation, temporal inhomogeneities in the RO records, or temporal trends in sampling patterns. Based on analysis fields from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), we can estimate – and subtract – the sampling error from each monthly climatology. After such subtraction, refractivity deviations are found reduced to <0.05% in almost any month and dry temperature deviations to <0.05 K (<0.02% relative) for almost every satellite and month. 3-yr average deviations are even reduced to <0.01% and <0.01 K (CHAMP: −0.05 K), respectively, establishing an amazing consistency of RO climatologies from different satellites. If applying the same processing scheme for all data, refractivity and dry temperature records from individual satellites with similar bending angle noise can be safely combined up to 30 km altitude (refractivity also up to 35 km) to a consistent single climate record of substantial value for climate monitoring in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Revisiting internal gravity waves analysis using GPS RO density profiles: comparison with temperature profiles and application for wave field stability study

We revise selected findings regarding the utilization of Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS RO) density profiles for the analysis of internal gravity waves (IGW), introduced by Sacha et al. (2014). Using various GPS RO datasets, we show that the differences in the IGW spectra between the dry-temperature and dry-density profiles that were described in the previous study as a general issue are in fact present in one specific data version only. The differences between perturbations in the temperature and density GPS RO profiles do not have any physical origin, and there is not the information loss of IGW activity that was suggested in Sacha et al. (2014). We investigate the previously discussed question of the temperature perturbations character when utilizing GPS RO dry-temperature profiles, derived by integration of the hydrostatic balance. Using radiosonde profiles as a proxy for GPS RO, we provide strong evidence that the differences in IGW perturbations between the real and retrieved temperature profiles (which are based on the assumption of hydrostatic balance) include a significant nonhydrostatic component that is present sporadically and might be either positive or negative. The detected differences in related spectra of IGW temperature perturbations are found to be mostly about ±10 %. The paper also presents a detailed study on the utilization of GPS RO density profiles for the characterization of the wave field stability. We have analyzed selected stability parameters derived from the density profiles together with a study of the vertical rotation of the wind direction. Regarding the Northern Hemisphere the results point to the western border of the Aleutian high, where potential IGW breaking is detected. These findings are also supported by an analysis of temperature and wind velocity profiles. Our results confirm advantages of the utilization of the density profiles for IGW analysis.Grantová Agentura České Republiky | Ref. 16-01562JMinisterstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy | Ref. 7AMB16AT021OeAD-GmbH | Ref. CZ 06/2016Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. CGL2015-71575-

Quantifying uncertainty in climatological fields from GPS radio occultation: an empirical-analytical error model

Due to the measurement principle of the radio occultation (RO) technique, RO data are highly suitable for climate studies. RO profiles can be used to build climatological fields of different atmospheric parameters like bending angle, refractivity, density, pressure, geopotential height, and temperature. RO climatologies are affected by random (statistical) errors, sampling errors, and systematic errors, yielding a total climatological error. Based on empirical error estimates, we provide a simple analytical error model for these error components, which accounts for vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal variations. The vertical structure of each error component is modeled constant around the tropopause region. Above this region the error increases exponentially, below the increase follows an inverse height power-law. The statistical error strongly depends on the number of measurements. It is found to be the smallest error component for monthly mean 10° zonal mean climatologies with more than 600 measurements per bin. Due to smallest atmospheric variability, the sampling error is found to be smallest at low latitudes equatorwards of 40°. Beyond 40°, this error increases roughly linearly, with a stronger increase in hemispheric winter than in hemispheric summer. The sampling error model accounts for this hemispheric asymmetry. However, we recommend to subtract the sampling error when using RO climatologies for climate research since the residual sampling error remaining after such subtraction is estimated to be only about 30% of the original one or less. The systematic error accounts for potential residual biases in the measurements as well as in the retrieval process and generally dominates the total climatological error. Overall the total error in monthly means is estimated to be smaller than 0.07% in refractivity and 0.15 K in temperature at low to mid latitudes, increasing towards higher latitudes. This study focuses on dry atmospheric parameters as retrieved from RO measurements so for context we also quantitatively explain the difference between dry and physical atmospheric parameters, which can be significant at altitudes below about 6 km (high latitudes) to 10 km (low latitudes)

The power of vertical geolocation of atmospheric profiles from GNSS radio occultation

Abstract High‐resolution measurements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) provide atmospheric profiles with independent information on altitude and pressure. This unique property is of crucial advantage when analyzing atmospheric characteristics that require joint knowledge of altitude and pressure or other thermodynamic atmospheric variables. Here we introduce and demonstrate the utility of this independent information from RO and discuss the computation, uncertainty, and use of RO atmospheric profiles on isohypsic coordinates—mean sea level altitude and geopotential height—as well as on thermodynamic coordinates (pressure and potential temperature). Using geopotential height as vertical grid, we give information on errors of RO‐derived temperature, pressure, and potential temperature profiles and provide an empirical error model which accounts for seasonal and latitudinal variations. The observational uncertainty of individual temperature/pressure/potential temperature profiles is about 0.7 K/0.15%/1.4 K in the tropopause region. It gradually increases into the stratosphere and decreases toward the lower troposphere. This decrease is due to the increasing influence of background information. The total climatological error of mean atmospheric fields is, in general, dominated by the systematic error component. We use sampling error‐corrected climatological fields to demonstrate the power of having different and accurate vertical coordinates available. As examples we analyze characteristics of the location of the tropopause for geopotential height, pressure, and potential temperature coordinates as well as seasonal variations of the midlatitude jet stream core. This highlights the broad applicability of RO and the utility of its versatile vertical geolocation for investigating the vertical structure of the troposphere and stratosphere

Tropical Temperature Variability in the UTLS: New Insights from GPS Radio Occultation Observations

AbstractGlobal positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) observations, first made of Earth's atmosphere in 1995, have contributed in new ways to the understanding of the thermal structure and variability of the tropical upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS), an important component of the climate system. The UTLS plays an essential role in the global radiative balance, the exchange of water vapor, ozone, and other chemical constituents between the troposphere and stratosphere, and the transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere. With their high accuracy, precision, vertical resolution, and global coverage, RO observations are uniquely suited for studying the UTLS and a broad range of equatorial waves, including gravity waves, Kelvin waves, Rossby and mixed Rossby–gravity waves, and thermal tides. Because RO measurements are nearly unaffected by clouds, they also resolve the upper-level thermal structure of deep convection and tropical cyclones as well as volcanic clouds. Their low biases and stability from mission to mission make RO observations powerful tools for studying climate variability and trends, including the annual cycle and intraseasonal-to-interannual atmospheric modes of variability such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These properties also make them useful for evaluating climate models and detection of small trends in the UTLS temperature, key indicators of climate change. This paper reviews the contributions of RO observations to the understanding of the three-dimensional structure of tropical UTLS phenomena and their variability over time scales ranging from hours to decades and longer

A tailored multi-model ensemble for air traffic management: Demonstration and evaluation for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010

High quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modeling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallaj&ouml;kull eruption in May 2010. Its use for air traffic management is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection. All a priori model source terms were constrained by observational evidence of the volcanic ash cloud top as a function of time. The second ensemble is based on the same four dispersion models, which were run with three additional source terms: (i) a source term obtained with background modeling constrained with satellite data (a posteriori source term), (ii) its lower bound estimate, and (iii) its upper bound estimate. The a priori ensemble gives valuable information about the probability of ash dispersion during the early phase of the eruption, when observational evidence is limited. However, its evaluation with observational data reveals lower quality compared to the second ensemble. While the second ensemble ash column load and ash horizontal location compare well to satellite observations, 3D ash concentrations are negatively biased. This might be caused by the vertical distribution of ash, which is too much diluted in all model runs, probably due to defaults in the a posteriori source term and vertical transport and/or diffusion processes in all models. Relevant products for the air traffic management are horizontal maps of ash concentration quantiles (median, 75 %, 99 %) at a fine-resolved flight level grid. These maps can be used for route optimization in the areas where ash does not pose a direct and urgent threat to aviation. Cost-optimized consideration of such hazards will result in much less impact on flight cancellations, reroutings, and traffic flow congestions.</p

Observed temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere from 1979 to 2018

Temperature observations of the upper-air atmosphere are now available for more than 40 years from both ground- and satellite-based observing systems. Recent years have seen substantial improvements in reducing long-standing discrepancies among datasets through major reprocessing efforts. The advent of radio occultation (RO) observations in 2001 has led to further improvements in vertically resolved temperature measurements, enabling a detailed analysis of upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere trends. This paper presents the current state of atmospheric temperature trends from the latest available observational records. We analyze observations from merged operational satellite measurements, radiosondes, lidars, and RO, spanning a vertical range from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. The focus is on assessing climate trends and on identifying the degree of consistency among the observational systems. The results show a robust cooling of the stratosphere of about 1–3 K, and a robust warming of the troposphere of about 0.6–0.8 K over the last four decades (1979– 2018). Consistent results are found between the satellite-based layer-average temperatures and vertically resolved radiosonde records. The overall latitude–altitude trend patterns are consistent between RO and radiosonde records. Significant warming of the troposphere is evident in the RO measurements available after 2001, with trends of 0.25–0.35 K per decade. Amplified warming in the tropical upper-troposphere compared to surface trends for 2002–18 is found based on RO and radiosonde records, in approximate agreement with moist adiabatic lapse rate theory. The consistency of trend results from the latest upper-air datasets will help to improve understanding of climate changes and their drivers

Quantification of structural uncertainty in climate data records from GPS radio occultation

Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) has provided continuous observations of the Earth's atmosphere since 2001 with global coverage, all-weather capability, and high accuracy and vertical resolution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Precise time measurements enable long-term stability but careful processing is needed. Here we provide climate-oriented atmospheric scientists with multicenter-based results on the long-term stability of RO climatological fields for trend studies. We quantify the structural uncertainty of atmospheric trends estimated from the RO record, which arises from current processing schemes of six international RO processing centers, DMI Copenhagen, EUM Darmstadt, GFZ Potsdam, JPL Pasadena, UCAR Boulder, and WEGC Graz. Monthly-mean zonal-mean fields of bending angle, refractivity, dry pressure, dry geopotential height, and dry temperature from the CHAMP mission are compared for September 2001 to September 2008. We find that structural uncertainty is lowest in the tropics and mid-latitudes (50° S to 50° N) from 8 km to 25 km for all inspected RO variables. In this region, the structural uncertainty in trends over 7 yr is &lt;0.03% for bending angle, refractivity, and pressure, &lt;3 m for geopotential height of pressure levels, and &lt;0.06 K for temperature; low enough for detecting a climate change signal within about a decade. Larger structural uncertainty above about 25 km and at high latitudes is attributable to differences in the processing schemes, which undergo continuous improvements. Though current use of RO for reliable climate trend assessment is bound to 50° S to 50° N, our results show that quality, consistency, and reproducibility are favorable in the UTLS for the establishment of a climate benchmark record

Vorstudie für das Klima- und Energiefondsprojekt NH3-PM-AQ für das Burgenland

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