Fisheries Bycatch Risk to Marine Megafauna Is Intensified in Lagrangian Coherent Structures

Incidental catch of nontarget species (bycatch) is a major barrier to ecological and economic sustainability in marine capture fisheries. Key to mitigating bycatch is an understanding of the habitat requirements of target and nontarget species and the influence of heterogeneity and variability in the dynamic marine environment. While patterns of overlap among marine capture fisheries and habitats of a taxonomically diverse range of marine vertebrates have been reported, a mechanistic understanding of the real-time physical drivers of bycatch events is lacking. Moving from describing patterns toward understanding processes, we apply a Lagrangian analysis to a high-resolution ocean model output to elucidate the fundamental mechanisms that drive fisheries interactions. We find that the likelihood of marine megafauna bycatch is intensified in attracting Lagrangian coherent structures associated with submesoscale and mesoscale filaments, fronts, and eddies. These results highlight how the real-time tracking of dynamic structures in the oceans can support fisheries sustainability and advance ecosystem-based managemen

Fit to Predict? Ecoinformatics for Predicting the Catchability of a Pelagic Fish in Near Real-Time

The ocean is a dynamic environment inhabited by a diverse array of highly migratory species, many of which are under direct exploitation in targeted fisheries. The timescales of variability in the marine realm coupled with the extreme mobility of ocean-wandering species such as tuna and billfish complicates fisheries management. Developing ecoinformatics solutions that allow for near real-time prediction of the distributions of highly mobile marine species is an important step towards the maturation of dynamic ocean management and ecological forecasting. Using 25 years (1990-2014) of NOAA fisheries\u27 observer data from the California drift gillnet fishery, we model relative probability of occurrence (presence-absence) and catchability (total catch) of broadbill swordfish Xiphias gladius in the California Current System (CCS). Using freely-available environmental datasets and open source software, we explore the physical drivers of regional swordfish distribution. Comparing models built upon remotely-sensed datasets with those built upon a data-assimilative configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), we explore trade-offs in model construction and address how physical data can affect predictive performance and operational capacity. Swordfish catchability was found to be highest in deeper waters (\u3e1500m) with surface temperatures in the 14-20 degrees C range, isothermal layer depth (ILD) of 20-40m, positive sea surface height anomalies and during the new moon

Integrating Dynamic Subsurface Habitat Metrics Into Species Distribution Models

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become key tools for describing and predicting species habitats. In the marine domain, environmental data used in modeling species distributions are often remotely sensed, and as such have limited capacity for interpreting the vertical structure of the water column, or are sampled in situ, offering minimal spatial and temporal coverage. Advances in ocean models have improved our capacity to explore subsurface ocean features, yet there has been limited integration of such features in SDMs. Using output from a data-assimilative configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System, we examine the effect of including dynamic subsurface variables in SDMs to describe the habitats of four pelagic predators in the California Current System (swordfish Xiphias gladius, blue sharks Prionace glauca, common thresher sharks Alopias vulpinus, and shortfin mako sharks lsurus oxyrinchus). Species data were obtained from the California Drift Gillnet observer program (1997-2017). We used boosted regression trees to explore the incremental improvement enabled by dynamic subsurface variables that quantify the structure and stability of the water column: isothermal layer depth and bulk buoyancy frequency. The inclusion of these dynamic subsurface variables significantly improved model explanatory power for most species. Model predictive performance also significantly improved, but only for species that had strong affiliations with dynamic variables (swordfish and shortfin mako sharks) rather than static variables (blue sharks and common thresher sharks). Geospatial predictions for all species showed the integration of isothermal layer depth and bulk buoyancy frequency contributed value at the mesoscale level (\u3c 100 km) and varied spatially throughout the study domain. These results highlight the utility of including dynamic subsurface variables in SDM development and support the continuing ecological use of biophysical output from ocean circulation models

Characterizing Habitat Suitability for a Central‐Place Forager in a Dynamic Marine Environment

Characterizing habitat suitability for a marine predator requires an understanding of the environmental heterogeneity and variability over the range in which a population moves during a particular life cycle. Female California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) are central‐place foragers and are particularly constrained while provisioning their young. During this time, habitat selection is a function of prey availability and proximity to the rookery, which has important implications for reproductive and population success. We explore how lactating females may select habitat and respond to environmental variability over broad spatial and temporal scales within the California Current System. We combine near‐real‐time remotely sensed satellite oceanography, animal tracking data (n = 72) from November to February over multiple years (2003–2009) and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to determine the probability of sea lion occurrence based on environmental covariates. Results indicate that sea lion presence is associated with cool (\u3c14°C), productive waters, shallow depths, increased eddy activity, and positive sea‐level anomalies. Predictive habitat maps generated from these biophysical associations suggest winter foraging areas are spatially consistent in the nearshore and offshore environments, except during the 2004–2005 winter, which coincided with an El Niño event. Here, we show how a species distribution model can provide broadscale information on the distribution of female California sea lions during an important life history stage and its implications for population dynamics and spatial management

Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their ‘transferability’) undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions

Expression of the T Cell Receptor αβ on a CD123+ BDCA2+ HLA-DR+ Subpopulation in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Human Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cells (PDCs) infiltrating solid tumor tissues and draining lymph nodes of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) show an impaired immune response. In addition to an attenuated secretion of IFN-α little is known about other HNSCC-induced functional alterations in PDCs. Particular objectives in this project were to gain new insights regarding tumor-induced phenotypical and functional alterations in the PDC population. We showed by FACS analysis and RT-PCR that HNSCC orchestrates an as yet unknown subpopulation exhibiting functional autonomy in-vitro and in-vivo besides bearing phenotypical resemblance to PDCs and T cells. A subset, positive for the PDC markers CD123, BDCA-2, HLA-DR and the T cell receptor αβ (TCR-αβ) was significantly induced subsequent to stimulation with HNSCC in-vitro (p = 0.009) and also present in metastatic lymph nodes in-vivo. This subgroup could be functionally distinguished due to an enhanced production of IL-2 (p = 0.02), IL-6 (p = 0.0007) and TGF-β (not significant). Furthermore, after exposure to HNSCC cells, mRNA levels revealed a D-J-beta rearrangement of the TCR-beta chain besides a strong enhancement of the CD3ε chain in the PDC population. Our data indicate an interface between the PDC and T cell lineage. These findings will improve our understanding of phenotypical and functional intricacies concerning the very heterogeneous PDC population in-vivo

Effect of Tamsulosin on Stone Passage for Ureteral Stones: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Study objectiveTamsulosin is recommended for patients receiving a diagnosis of a ureteral stone less than 10 mm who do not require immediate urologic intervention. Because of conflicting results from recent meta-analyses and large randomized controlled trials, the efficacy of tamsulosin is unclear. We perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effect of tamsulosin on stone passage in patients receiving a diagnosis of ureteral stone.MethodsMEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases were searched without language restriction through November 2015 for studies assessing the efficacy of tamsulosin and using a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial design. Meta-analysis was conducted with a random-effects model and subgroup analyses were conducted to determine sources of heterogeneity.ResultsEight randomized controlled trials (N=1,384) contained sufficient information for inclusion. The pooled risk of stone passage in the tamsulosin arm was 85% versus 66% in the placebo arm, but substantial heterogeneity existed across trials (I2=80.2%; P<.001). After stratifying of studies by stone size, the meta-analysis of the large stone subgroup (5 to 10 mm; N=514) indicated a benefit of tamsulosin (risk difference=22%; 95% confidence interval 12% to 33%; number needed to treat=5). The meta-analysis of the small stone subgroup (<4 to 5 mm; N=533) indicated no benefit (risk difference=-0.3%; 95% confidence interval -4% to 3%). Neither meta-analysis for the occurrence of dizziness or hypotension showed a significant effect.ConclusionTamsulosin significantly improves stone passage in patients with larger stones, whereas the effect of tamsulosin is diminished in those with smaller stones, who are likely to pass their stone regardless of treatment