Moderation of the Association between Media Exposure and Youth Smoking Onset: Race/Ethnicity, and Parent Smoking

This study of youth smoking onset aims to replicate previously published media moderation effects for race/ethnicity in a national longitudinal multiethnic sample of U.S. adolescents. Previous research has demonstrated that associations between media and smoking during adolescence are greater for Whites than Hispanics or Blacks, and for youth living in non-smoking families. In this study, changes in smoking status over 24 months were assessed among 4,511 baseline never-smokers. The incidence of smoking onset was 14.3% by 24 months with no differences by race/ethnicity. Blacks had higher exposure to movie smoking and overall television viewing compared with Whites and Hispanics. Whites responded to movie smoking regardless of parent smoking but more strongly if their parents were non-smokers. In contrast, Black adolescents showed little behavioral response to any media, regardless of parent smoking. Hispanic adolescents responded only to TV viewing and only when their parents did not smoke. In an analysis assessing the influence of the race of smoking characters on smoking behavior of White and Black adolescents, Whites responded to both White and Black movie character smoking, whereas Blacks responded only to smoking by Black movie characters. Taken as a whole, the findings replicate and extend previous findings, suggesting media factors are more influential among adolescents at low to moderate overall risk for smoking. We draw analogies between these low-moderate risk adolescents and “swing voters” in national elections, suggesting that media effects are more apt to influence an adolescent in the middle of the risk spectrum, compared with his peers at either end of it

Smoking in film in New Zealand: measuring risk exposure

BACKGROUND: Smoking in film is a risk factor for smoking uptake in adolescence. This study aimed to quantify exposure to smoking in film received by New Zealand audiences, and evaluate potential interventions to reduce the quantity and impact of this exposure. METHODS: The ten highest-grossing films in New Zealand for 2003 were each analysed independently by two viewers for smoking, smoking references and related imagery. Potential interventions were explored by reviewing relevant New Zealand legislation, and scientific literature. RESULTS: Seven of the ten films contained at least one tobacco reference, similar to larger film samples. The majority of the 38 tobacco references involved characters smoking, most of whom were male. Smoking was associated with positive character traits, notably rebellion (which may appeal to adolescents). There appeared to be a low threshold for including smoking in film. Legislative or censorship approaches to smoking in film are currently unlikely to succeed. Anti-smoking advertising before films has promise, but experimental research is required to demonstrate cost effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Smoking in film warrants concern from public health advocates. In New Zealand, pre-film anti-smoking advertising appears to be the most promising immediate policy response

Is there an association between seeing incidents of alcohol or drug use in films and young Scottish adults' own alcohol or drug use? A cross sectional study

<p>Background: As the promotion of alcohol and tobacco to young people through direct advertising has become increasingly restricted, there has been greater interest in whether images of certain behaviours in films are associated with uptake of those behaviours in young people. Associations have been reported between exposure to smoking images in films and smoking initiation, and between exposure to film alcohol images and initiation of alcohol consumption, in younger adolescents in the USA and Germany. To date no studies have reported on film images of recreational drug use and young people's own drug use.</p> <p>Methods: Cross sectional multivariable logistic regression analysis of data collected at age 19 (2002-4) from a cohort of young people (502 boys, 500 girls) previously surveyed at ages 11 (in 1994-5), 13 and 15 in schools in the West of Scotland. Outcome measures at age 19 were: exceeding the 'sensible drinking' guidelines ('heavy drinkers') and binge drinking (based on alcohol consumption reported in last week), and ever use of cannabis and of 'hard' drugs. The principle predictor variables were an estimate of exposure to images of alcohol, and of drug use, in films, controlling for factors related to the uptake of substance use in young people.</p> <p>Results: A third of these young adults (33%) were classed as 'heavy drinkers' and half (47%) as 'binge drinkers' on the basis of their previous week's consumption. Over half (56%) reported ever use of cannabis and 13% ever use of one or more of the 'hard' drugs listed. There were linear trends in the percentage of heavy drinkers (p = .018) and binge drinkers (p = 0.012) by film alcohol exposure quartiles, and for ever use of cannabis by film drug exposure (p = .000), and for ever use of 'hard' drugs (p = .033). The odds ratios for heavy drinking (1.56, 95% CI 1.06-2.29 comparing highest with lowest quartile of film alcohol exposure) and binge drinking (1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.30) were attenuated by adjustment for gender, social class, family background (parental structure, parental care and parental control), attitudes to risk-taking and rule-breaking, and qualifications (OR heavy drinking 1.42, 95% CI 0.95-2.13 and binge drinking 1.49, 95% CI 1.01-2.19), and further so when adjusting for friends' drinking status (when the odds ratios were no longer significant). A similar pattern was seen for ever use of cannabis and 'hard' drugs (unadjusted OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.24-2.62 and 1.57, 95% CI 0.91-2.69 respectively, 'fully' adjusted OR 1.41 (0.90-2.22 and 1.28 (0.66-2.47) respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions: Despite some limitations, which are discussed, these cross-sectional results add to a body of work which suggests that it is important to design good longitudinal studies which can determine whether exposure to images of potentially health-damaging behaviours lead to uptake of these behaviours during adolescence and early adulthood, and to examine factors that might mediate this relationship.</p&gt

Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?

This paper re-examines the evidence in favour of the existence of underwriting cycles in property and casualty insurance and their economical significance. Using a meta-analysis of published papers in the area of insurance economics, we show that the evidence supporting the existence of underwriting cycles is misleading. There is, in fact, little evidence in favour of insurance cycles with a linear autoregressive character. This means that any cyclicality in firm profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry is not predictable in a classical econometric framework. It follows that pricing in the property and casualty insurance industry is not incompatible with that of a competitive market

Environmental Salinity Determines the Specificity and Need for Tat-Dependent Secretion of the YwbN Protein in Bacillus subtilis

Twin-arginine protein translocation (Tat) pathways are required for transport of folded proteins across bacterial, archaeal and chloroplast membranes. Recent studies indicate that Tat has evolved into a mainstream pathway for protein secretion in certain halophilic archaea, which thrive in highly saline environments. Here, we investigated the effects of environmental salinity on Tat-dependent protein secretion by the Gram-positive soil bacterium Bacillus subtilis, which encounters widely differing salt concentrations in its natural habitats. The results show that environmental salinity determines the specificity and need for Tat-dependent secretion of the Dyp-type peroxidase YwbN in B. subtilis. Under high salinity growth conditions, at least three Tat translocase subunits, namely TatAd, TatAy and TatCy, are involved in the secretion of YwbN. Yet, a significant level of Tat-independent YwbN secretion is also observed under these conditions. When B. subtilis is grown in medium with 1% NaCl or without NaCl, the secretion of YwbN depends strictly on the previously described “minimal Tat translocase” consisting of the TatAy and TatCy subunits. Notably, in medium without NaCl, both tatAyCy and ywbN mutants display significantly reduced exponential growth rates and severe cell lysis. This is due to a critical role of secreted YwbN in the acquisition of iron under these conditions. Taken together, our findings show that environmental conditions, such as salinity, can determine the specificity and need for the secretion of a bacterial Tat substrate

Influence of family and friend smoking on intentions to smoke and smoking-related attitudes and refusal self-efficacy among 9-10 year old children from deprived neighbourhoods: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking often starts in early adolescence and addiction can occur rapidly. For effective smoking prevention there is a need to identify at risk groups of preadolescent children and whether gender-specific intervention components are necessary. This study aimed to examine associations between mother, father, sibling and friend smoking and cognitive vulnerability to smoking among preadolescent children living in deprived neighbourhoods. METHODS: Cross-sectional data was collected from 9-10 year old children (n =1143; 50.7% girls; 85.6% White British) from 43 primary schools in Merseyside, England. Children completed a questionnaire that assessed their smoking-related behaviour, intentions, attitudes, and refusal self-efficacy, as well as parent, sibling and friend smoking. Data for boys and girls were analysed separately using multilevel linear and logistic regression models, adjusting for individual cognitions and school and deprivation level. RESULTS: Compared to girls, boys had lower non-smoking intentions (P = 0.02), refusal self-efficacy (P = 0.04) and were less likely to agree that smoking is 'definitely' bad for health (P < 0.01). Friend smoking was negatively associated with non-smoking intentions in girls (P < 0.01) and boys (P < 0.01), and with refusal self-efficacy in girls (P < 0.01). Sibling smoking was negatively associated with non-smoking intentions in girls (P < 0.01) but a positive association was found in boys (P = 0.02). Boys who had a smoking friend were less likely to 'definitely' believe that the smoke from other people's cigarettes is harmful (OR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.91, P = 0.02). Further, boys with a smoking friend (OR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.69, P < 0.01) or a smoking sibling (OR 0.45, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.98) were less likely to 'definitely' believe that smoking is bad for health. CONCLUSION: This study indicates that sibling and friend smoking may represent important influences on 9-10 year old children's cognitive vulnerability toward smoking. Whilst some differential findings by gender were observed, these may not be sufficient to warrant separate prevention interventions. However, further research is needed

The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and subsequent alcohol consumption in young people. Inferences about the modest effect sizes found are limited by the potential influence of residual or unmeasured confounding.</p

The Twin-Arginine Translocation Pathway in α-Proteobacteria Is Functionally Preserved Irrespective of Genomic and Regulatory Divergence

The twin-arginine translocation (Tat) pathway exports fully folded proteins out of the cytoplasm of Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria. Although much progress has been made in unraveling the molecular mechanism and biochemical characterization of the Tat system, little is known concerning its functionality and biological role to confer adaptive skills, symbiosis or pathogenesis in the α-proteobacteria class. A comparative genomic analysis in the α-proteobacteria class confirmed the presence of tatA, tatB, and tatC genes in almost all genomes, but significant variations in gene synteny and rearrangements were found in the order Rickettsiales with respect to the typically described operon organization. Transcription of tat genes was confirmed for Anaplasma marginale str. St. Maries and Brucella abortus 2308, two α-proteobacteria with full and partial intracellular lifestyles, respectively. The tat genes of A. marginale are scattered throughout the genome, in contrast to the more generalized operon organization. Particularly, tatA showed an approximately 20-fold increase in mRNA levels relative to tatB and tatC. We showed Tat functionality in B. abortus 2308 for the first time, and confirmed conservation of functionality in A. marginale. We present the first experimental description of the Tat system in the Anaplasmataceae and Brucellaceae families. In particular, in A. marginale Tat functionality is conserved despite operon splitting as a consequence of genome rearrangements. Further studies will be required to understand how the proper stoichiometry of the Tat protein complex and its biological role are achieved. In addition, the predicted substrates might be the evidence of role of the Tat translocation system in the transition process from a free-living to a parasitic lifestyle in these α-proteobacteria

ALMA observations of cold molecular gas in AGN hosts at z ~ 1.5 – evidence of AGN feedback?

Similarly to the cosmic star formation history, the black hole accretion rate density of the Universe peaked at 199 per cent probability of lower depletion time-scales and lower molecular gas fractions in AGN hosts with respect to the non-AGN comparison sample. We discuss the implications of these observations on the impact that AGN feedback may have on star formation efficiency of $z$ > 1 galaxies.MB acknowledges support from the FP7 Career Integration Grant ‘eEASY: supermassive black holes through cosmic time from current surveys to eROSITA-Euclid Synergies’ (CIG 321913). SC acknowledges financial support from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC). CF acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant agreement no. 664931. MTS acknowledges support from a Royal Society Leverhulme Trust Senior Research Fellowship (LT150041). This paper makes use of the following ALMA data: ADS/JAO.ALMA#2013.1.00171.S. ALMA is a partnership of ESO (representing its member states), NSF (USA) and NINS (Japan), together with NRC (Canada), NSC and ASIAA (Taiwan), and KASI (Republic of Korea), in cooperation with the Republic of Chile. The Joint ALMA Observatory is operated by ESO, AUI/NRAO and NAOJ

Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The clinical significance of a treatment effect demonstrated in a randomized trial is typically assessed by reference to differences in event rates at the group level. An alternative is to make individualized predictions for each patient based on a prediction model. This approach is growing in popularity, particularly for cancer. Despite its intuitive advantages, it remains plausible that some prediction models may do more harm than good. Here we present a novel method for determining whether predictions from a model should be used to apply the results of a randomized trial to individual patients, as opposed to using group level results.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose applying the prediction model to a data set from a randomized trial and examining the results of patients for whom the treatment arm recommended by a prediction model is congruent with allocation. These results are compared with the strategy of treating all patients through use of a net benefit function that incorporates both the number of patients treated and the outcome. We examined models developed using data sets regarding adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer and Dutasteride for benign prostatic hypertrophy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For adjuvant chemotherapy, we found that patients who would opt for chemotherapy even for small risk reductions, and, conversely, those who would require a very large risk reduction, would on average be harmed by using a prediction model; those with intermediate preferences would on average benefit by allowing such information to help their decision making. Use of prediction could, at worst, lead to the equivalent of an additional death or recurrence per 143 patients; at best it could lead to the equivalent of a reduction in the number of treatments of 25% without an increase in event rates. In the Dutasteride case, where the average benefit of treatment is more modest, there is a small benefit of prediction modelling, equivalent to a reduction of one event for every 100 patients given an individualized prediction.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The size of the benefit associated with appropriate clinical implementation of a good prediction model is sufficient to warrant development of further models. However, care is advised in the implementation of prediction modelling, especially for patients who would opt for treatment even if it was of relatively little benefit.</p