Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction

Atmospheric forcing applied as ocean model boundary conditions can have a critical impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. This paper assesses the sensitivity of an eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) regional ocean model of the north-west European Shelf (NWS) to the choice of atmospheric forcing and atmosphere–ocean coupling. The analysis is focused on a month-long simulation experiment for July 2014 and evaluation of simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in a shallow near-coastal region to the south-west of the UK (Celtic Sea and western English Channel). Observations of the ocean and atmosphere are used to evaluate model results, with a particular focus on the L4 ocean buoy from the Western Channel Observatory as a rare example of co-located data above and below the sea surface. The impacts of differences in the atmospheric forcing are illustrated by comparing results from an ocean model run in forcing mode using operational global-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with an ocean model run forced by a convective-scale regional atmosphere model. The value of dynamically representing feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean state is assessed via the use of these model components within a fully coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere system. Simulated SSTs show considerable sensitivity to atmospheric forcing and to the impact of model coupling in near-coastal areas. A warm ocean bias relative to in situ observations in the simulation forced by global-scale NWP (0.7 K in the model domain) is shown to be reduced (to 0.4 K) via the use of the 1.5 km resolution regional atmospheric forcing. When simulated in coupled mode, this bias is further reduced (by 0.2 K). Results demonstrate much greater variability of both the surface heat budget terms and the near-surface winds in the convective-scale atmosphere model data, as might be expected. Assessment of the surface heat budget and wind forcing over the ocean is challenging due to a scarcity of observations. However, it can be demonstrated that the wind speed over the ocean simulated by the convective-scale atmosphere did not agree as well with the limited number of observations as the global-scale NWP data did. Further partially coupled experiments are discussed to better understand why the degraded wind forcing does not detrimentally impact on SST results

Choice of new oral anticoagulant agents versus vitamin K antagonists in atrial fibrillation: FANTASIIA study

[Abstract] Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic events. Many patients with AF receive chronic anticoagulation, either with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or with non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs). We sought to analyze variables associated with prescription of NOAC. Methods: Patients with AF under anticoagulation treatment were prospectively recruited in this observational registry. The sample comprised 1290 patients under chronic anticoagulation for AF, 994 received VKA (77.1%) and 296 NOAC (22.9%). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify variables associated with use of NOAC. Results: Mean age was 73.8 ± 9.4 years, and 42.5% of the patients were women. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was 0 in 4.9% of the population, 1 in 24.1%, and ≥2 in 71% (median = 4, interquartile range = 2). Variables associated with NOAC treatment were major bleeding (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36; confidence interval [CI] 95%: 1.73-6.51; P < .001), hemorrhagic stroke (OR = 3.19; CI 95% 1.00-10.15, P = .049), university education (OR = 2.44; CI 95%: 1.55-3.84; P < .001), high diastolic blood pressure (OR = 1.02; CI 95%: 1.00-1.03; P = .006), and higher glomerular filtration rate (OR 1.01, CI 95% 1.00-1.01; P = .01). And variables associated with VKA use were history of cancer (OR = 0.46; CI 95%: 0.25-0.85; P = .013) and bradyarrhythmia (OR = 0.40; CI 95% 0.19-0.85; P = .020). Conclusion: Medical and social variables were associated with prescription of NOAC. Major bleeding, hemorrhagic stroke, university education, and higher glomerular filtration rate were more frequent among patients under NOAC. On the contrary, patients with history of cancer or bradyarrhythmias more frequently received VKA.Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0068Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0063Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0010Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0069Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/004

The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system

This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at kilometre-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III®), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave–ocean feedbacks through introduction of wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave-modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results from four simulation experiments, each of the order of 1 month in duration, are analysed and discussed in the context of characterizing the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be stable over time periods of weeks. The coupled approach shows notable improvements in surface temperature, wave state (in near-coastal regions) and wind speed over the sea, whereas the prediction quality of other quantities shows no significant improvement or degradation relative to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations

La vid silvestre en México. Actualidades y potencial

En ocho capítulos se aborda el estado del arte de la vid silvestre en MéxicoEl estudio de las especies vegetales nativas de México representa un reto que cada día más investigadores mexicanos asumen. Durante muchos años, el apoyo a la investigación pública ha sido mínimo; desde el punto de vista agronómico es insuficiente para avanzar a la velocidad que requiere nuestro país para afrontar problemas de producción y distribución de alimentos. Por esa razón, entre otras, me es grato presentar esta obra que compila parte de los trabajos de la Red de Vid Silvestre patrocinada por el Sistema Nacional de Recursos Fitogenéticos (sinarefi) dependiente de la sagarpa; trabajos apuntalados por investigadores que sin pertenecer a la red han colaborado en el estudio de las plantas del género Vitis. En este libro se muestra el potencial del país para aprovechar el recurso vid, empleado desde antes de la conquista española por nativos mexicanos que conocían sus bondades. Es necesario continuar el avance en el conocimiento de este recurso, por ello el presente libro pretende invitar a toda persona interesada en contribuir con el rescate y conservación de las vides mexicanas. Los autores y editores, así como las instituciones en donde laboramos y aquellas que patrocinan estas investigaciones, esperamos se cumpla este objetivo y que el lector, alumno, profesor, investigador, público en general, disfrute esta lectura y, sobre todo, se interese en el recurso VitisSEP, SINAREFI, UAEME

Evaluación por competencias en asignatura troncal de Mecánica de Fluidos

Este trabajo presenta una propuesta de evaluación por competencias para una asignatura troncal de Mecánica de Fluidos. Se propone eliminar el examen final para la evaluación del aprendizaje por una evaluación continua de cada uno de los objetivos de aprendizaje. La evaluación continua consiste en la resolución de problemas con múltiples respuestas en el aula de informática. Para demostrar la adquisición de la competencia definida en el objetivo de aprendizaje el alumno deberá responder correctamente al menos un 80% de los problemas propuestos para cada uno de ellos, con un mínimo de 10 problemas por objetivo. Este tipo de evaluación asíncrona se puede llevar a cabo en las horas de tutoría y permite la corrección automática de las mismas, consiguiendo simultáneamente un triple objetivo: (i) liberar de carga de trabajo al docente; (ii) asegurar un mínimo de calidad en la evaluación de la adquisición de las habilidades requeridas en una asignatura troncal y (iii) hacer responsable al alumnado de su propio aprendizaje, pudiendo evaluarse en cualquier momento del semestre y repitiendo la evaluación.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?

Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which are independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves, and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean–atmosphere interface is represented through ocean–wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the north-west European Shelf (NWS) region. A series of 2-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) north-west European Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean–wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes–Coriolis forcing, and wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered. Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the ocean–wave coupled system is a viable evolution for future operational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges

The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere–land–ocean–wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed

Algunas evidencias de aplicación

Libro temático especializadoLa sustentabilidad también debe aplicarse al sistema de producción, buscando impulsar transformaciones graduales de los estilos y modelos productivos tradicionales a unas de mayor eficiencia. Y donde se incorpore la dimensión ambiental y geográfico-espacial, para crear estructuras productivas más progresivas y equitativas en las sociedades. Todo esto, como alternativa para revertir las tendencias de escasez y agotamiento de los recursos naturales, así como de los desequilibrios globales, cuyos costos permean todos los tejidos humanos. De esta manera, la “sustentabilidad productiva” se concibe como la generación de bienes y servicios con ciertos estándares de calidad, bajo un esquema de eficiencia, rendimiento y de organización inclusiva e integrada, con baja presión al ambiente y uso racional de los recursos, garantizando la estadía y permanencia de los insumos y materiales en el tiempo. Desde esta perspectiva, la producción sustentable y el crecimiento de largo plazo pueden ser explicados por la capacidad que tienen las economías para generar e incorporar conocimientos y tecnologías. De ahí que, la educación y las cualificaciones del capital humano, los cambios en la organización de la producción y la calidad institucional, sean elementos nodales para avanzar en la consolidación de este ambiente productivo

Risk Factors and Predictive Score for Bacteremic Biliary Tract Infections Due to Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium: a Multicenter Cohort Study from the PROBAC Project

Biliary-tract bloodstream infections (BT-BSI) caused by Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium are associated with inappropriate empirical treatment and worse outcomes compared to other etiologies. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk factors for enterococcal BT-BSI. Patients with BT-BSI from the PROBAC cohort, including consecutive patients with BSI in 26 Spanish hospitals between October 2016 and March 2017, were selected; episodes caused by E. faecalis or E. faecium and other causes were compared. Independent predictors for enterococci were identified by logistic regression, and a predictive score was developed. Eight hundred fifty episodes of BT-BSI were included; 73 (8.5%) were due to target Enterococcus spp. (48 [66%] were E. faecium and 25 [34%] E. faecalis). By multivariate analysis, the variables independently associated with Enterococcus spp. were (OR; 95% confidence interval): cholangiocarcinoma (4.48;1.32 to 15.25), hospital acquisition (3.58;2.11 to 6.07), use of carbapenems in the previous month (3.35;1.45 to 7.78), biliary prosthesis (2.19;1.24 to 3.90), and moderate or severe chronic kidney disease (1.55;1.07 to 2.26). The AUC of the model was 0.74 [95% CI0.67 to 0.80]. A score was developed, with 7, 6, 5, 4, and 2 points for these variables, respectively, with a negative predictive value of 95% for a score ? 6. A model, including cholangiocarcinoma, biliary prosthesis, hospital acquisition, previous carbapenems, and chronic kidney disease showed moderate prediction ability for enterococcal BT-BSI. Although the score will need to be validated, this information may be useful for deciding empirical therapy in biliary tract infections when bacteremia is suspected. IMPORTANCE Biliary tract infections are frequent, and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Bacteremia is common in these infections, particularly in the elderly and patients with cancer. Inappropriate empirical treatment has been associated with increased risk of mortality in bacteremic cholangitis, and the probability of receiving inactive empirical treatment is higher in episodes caused by enterococci. This is because many of the antimicrobial agents recommended in guidelines for biliary tract infections lack activity against these organisms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the predictive factors for enterococcal BT-BSI and deriving a predictive score

The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at kilometre scale

A new regional coupled modelling framework is introduced – the Regional Coupled Suite (RCS). This provides a flexible research capability with which to study the interactions between atmosphere, land, ocean, and wave processes resolved at kilometre scale, and the effect of environmental feedbacks on the evolution and impacts of multi-hazard weather events. A configuration of the RCS focussed on the Indian region, termed RCS-IND1, is introduced. RCS-IND1 includes a regional configuration of the Unified Model (UM) atmosphere, directly coupled to the JULES land surface model, on a grid with horizontal spacing of 4.4 km, enabling convection to be explicitly simulated. These are coupled through OASIS3-MCT libraries to 2.2 km grid NEMO ocean and WAVEWATCH III wave model configurations. To examine a potential approach to reduce computation cost and simplify ocean initialization, the RCS includes an alternative approach to couple the atmosphere to a lower resolution Multi-Column K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) for the ocean. Through development of a flexible modelling framework, a variety of fully and partially coupled experiments can be defined, along with traceable uncoupled simulations and options to use external input forcing in place of missing coupled components. This offers a wide scope to researchers designing sensitivity and case study assessments. Case study results are presented and assessed to demonstrate the application of RCS-IND1 to simulate two tropical cyclone cases which developed in the Bay of Bengal, namely Titli in October 2018 and Fani in April 2019. Results show realistic cyclone simulations, and that coupling can improve the cyclone track and produces more realistic intensification than uncoupled simulations for Titli but prevents sufficient intensification for Fani. Atmosphere-only UM regional simulations omit the influence of frictional heating on the boundary layer to prevent cyclone over-intensification. However, it is shown that this term can improve coupled simulations, enabling a more rigorous treatment of the near-surface energy budget to be represented. For these cases, a 1D mixed layer scheme shows similar first-order SST cooling and feedback on the cyclones to a 3D ocean. Nevertheless, the 3D ocean generally shows stronger localized cooling than the 1D ocean. Coupling with the waves has limited feedback on the atmosphere for these cases. Priorities for future model development are discussed