Age-Specific Education Inequality, Education Mobility and Income Growth

We construct a new dataset of inequality in educational attainment by age and sex at the global level. The comparison of education inequality measures across age groups allows us to assess the effect of inter-generational education attainment trends on economic growth. Our results indicate that countries which are able to reduce the inequality of educational attainment of young cohorts over time tend to have higher growth rates of income per capita. This effect is additional to that implied by the accumulation of human capital and implies that policies aiming at providing broad-based access to schooling have returns in terms of economic growth that go beyond those achieved by increasing average educational attainment.Series: WWWforEurop

Education & the Sustainable Development Goals

Background paper prepared for the 2016 Global Education Monitoring ReportThe review conducted here is not a “systematic review” in the technical sense, with a fixed set of search and selection criteria applied to a defined set of potential sources. One of the aims was of this review was to capture insights from across a large range of disciplines, many of which use their own language and terminology for phenomena that are educational in fact but not in name. In addition, in the area of educational development itself, “grey” literature is common, which ordinarily would not be included in a scientific review. Accordingly, we proceeded through a combination of “snowball” sampling, starting from key studies or review articles, purposive searching to close specific gaps (or to verify the absence of evidence), and by consulting our extensive professional networks. This approach allowed us to identify a diverse range of important items, which would have been missed had we taken a more systematic, scientific approach. An important limitation is that a review of the present scope and ambition can never be fully comprehensive, and that the selection and choices made inevitably partly reflect our own particular areas of expertise and interest, as well as a certain amount of chance. In addition, the timing of the work relative to the SDG process means that only the draft targets were available when we began our review, and also that keeping up to date with other related efforts has been a “moving target”. Around the formal adoption of the SDGs, relevant documents, reports, and data were published almost on a daily basis. At the same time, one strength of our approach has been precisely to be able to take advantage of our networks and social media to learn of such publications almost immediately

Ukraine's population future after the Russian Invasion

This report analyses the effect of the Russian Invasion on the longer-term future of Ukraine?s population size and structure. The qualitative scenarios spanning a range of possible migration futures are translated into quantitative population projections using a multistate population model which shows the evolution of the size and age-sex composition of Ukraine?s population up to 2052. Under the most pessimistic scenario of Long war, low return scenario we project a decline of 30 of the population. The difference of in population decline across the four considered migration scenarios matches the uncertainty in the UN projections suggesting that migration will be similarly important as fertility and mortality in driving population change in Ukraine following the war

American political affiliation, 2003–43: a cohort component projection

The recent rise and stability in American party identification has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party bases. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces which will produce a natural Democratic advantage in the future while conservative writers highlight the importance of high Republican fertility in securing Republican growth. These concerns foreground the neglect of demography within political science. This paper addresses this omission by conducting the first ever cohort component projection of American partisan populations to 2043 based on survey and census data. A number of scenarios are modeled, but, on current trends, we predict that American partisanship will shift much less than the nation’s ethnic composition because the parties’ age structures are similar. Still, our projections find that the Democrats gain two to three percentage points from the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, though Republican fertility may redress the balance in the very long term

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Lung health in rural Nepal : multi-state modeling of health status and economic evaluation of integrated respiratory care guidelines

Mensen lopen verschillende gezondheidsrisico’s. Ziekten kunnen worden voorkomen, verzacht of genezen. In arme landen lijden mensen aan ziekten die in rijke landen goed te voorkomen zijn. Kennisoverdracht van rijke naar arme landen en investeringen in de gezondheidszorg kunnen bijdragen aan de vermindering van de gezondheidsverschillen in de wereld. Om hierbij succesvol te zijn dienen interventies te zijn aangepast aan lokale omstandigheden en vooraf te worden onderworpen aan een kosten-baten analyse. Hierbij worden gezondheidseffecten gerelateerd aan de kosten van de interventie. Dit boek presenteert de resultaten van een kosteneffectiviteitsanalyse van een door de Wereldgezondheidsorganisatie (WHO) ontwikkelde ge¨ıntegreerde aanpak van longaandoeningen, de zogenaamde Practical Approach to Lung Health (PAL). De WHO-PAL aanpak werd toegepast in ruraal Nepal waar verschillende longaandoeningen zoals longontsteking, tuberculose (TBC), chronische obstructieve longziekten (COPD) en asthma veel voorkomende kwalen zijn. Veelal ontbreken er goed uitgeruste gezondheidsvoorzieningen en goed opgeleid personeel. De PAL aanpak voor de eerstelijnsgezondheidszorg is ontwikkeld voor gezondheidswerkers met een beperkte opleiding. In 22 willekeurig gekozen centra voor basisgezondheidszorg in een ruraal district (uit een totaal van 42 centra) werd ten minste ´e´en gezondheidswerker opgeleid volgens het PAL richtlijnenprogramma. In hetzelfde district werden de 20 andere centra als controle centra meegenomen. In een vervolgonderzoek werden de gegevens gedurende een periode van een jaar verzameld van alle pati¨enten die deze 42 gezondheidscentra bezochten en die symptomen van longziekten vertoonden i.c. koorts, hoesten en ademhalingsproblemen. In dit boek worden de resultaten van de PAL benadering vergeleken met die van al bestaande gezondheidszorg in de controle centra, in termen van kosten, gezondheidseffecten en kosteneffectiviteit. ... Zie: Samenvatting

Can changes in education alter future population ageing in Asia and Europe?

While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of the elderly remains rather heterogeneous. This study assesses the educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe, and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations changed. A comparative population ageing measure (the Comparative Prospective Old-Age Threshold [CPOAT]) was used, which recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. Combined data from projected age- and sex-specific life-tables (from the United Nations) and projected age- and sex-specific survival ratios by different levels of education (from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital) were used to construct projected life-tables (2015–2020, …, 2045–2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables, future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex were calculated. It was found that in both Asia and Europe, and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less-educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe’s older population is better educated. In alternative future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. The results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed