Fine-Tuning Climate Resilience in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems: The Need for Accurate Space-Time Representativeness to Identify Relevant Consequences and Responses

Climate change triggers a wide mosaic of regional and local responses, often different to the large-scale variability in magnitude and direction. Because of the psychological connections (cognitive and emotional) with the frequency, intensity and age of a climatic event, people may have the capacity to recognize key variations at lower scales, especially those from which they perceive risk. Yet, the anticipatory actions and social engagement to respond or adapt to climate change are difficult to achieve, mostly when there exists a long psychological distance to climatic phenomena. Research about climate change communication provides clues about the relevance of place-based discussion to gauge risk perception and improve response protocols, their design and prioritization. It argues that strategies and actions required to face climate risks may widely differ depending on the scale and accuracy of the local representations displayed during discussions of climate impacts. This work examines how local attributes (from climate to social) operate and control place-specific risks and priorities, by comparing coastal communities in two locations, Cabo Pulmo, Mexico and Zanzibar, Tanzania, which are subject to different climate dynamics. This paper discusses the need to identify relevant climate risks/responses at the local level and how psycho-social factors (e.g., psychological distance, collective memory, and social engagement) may operate positively for building climate resilience. We also illustrate a workflow to increase and enhance collaboration between researchers and local people by promoting dialogue, participation and narratives that rigorously consider the local knowledge

Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone

The dynamics of marine systems at decadal scales are notoriously hard to predict—hence references to this timescale as the “grey zone” for ocean prediction. Nevertheless, decadal-scale prediction is a rapidly developing field with an increasing number of applications to help guide ocean stewardship and sustainable use of marine environments. Such predictions can provide industry and managers with information more suited to support planning and management over strategic timeframes, as compared to seasonal forecasts or long-term (century-scale) predic- tions. The most significant advances in capability for decadal-scale prediction over recent years have been for ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with some notable advances in ecological prediction skill. In this paper, we argue that the process of “lighting the grey zone” by providing im- proved predictions at decadal scales should also focus on including human dimensions in prediction systems to better meet the needs and priorities of end users. Our paper reviews information needs for decision-making at decadal scales and assesses current capabilities for meeting these needs. We identify key gaps in current capabilities, including the particular challenge of integrating human elements into decadal prediction systems. We then suggest approaches for overcoming these challenges and gaps, highlighting the important role of co-production of tools and scenarios, to build trust and ensure uptake with end users of decadal prediction systems. We also highlight opportunities for combining narratives and quantitative predictions to better incorporate the human dimension in future efforts to light the grey zone of decadal-scale prediction

Cambios a largo plazo en la ictiofauna arrecifal del Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, Baja California, México

IMPRESO Y PD

Cambios a largo plazo en la ictiofauna arrecifal del Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, Baja California Sur, México

: Efectos de las reservas marinas, consecuencias de la conservación en comunidades de peces, Golfo de California, arrecifes templados, impactos ecológicos del cambio climático. Marine reserve effects, no-fishing ecological consequences, Gulf of California, temperate reef, ecological impacts of climate change

Monitoreo de la ictiofauna usando grupos taxonómicos superiores en el Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, México

El uso de indicadores biológicos es una herramienta útil para la descripción de las comunidades y permite ahorrar recursos en programas de monitoreo. Con el fin de evaluar el potencial bioindicador de grupos taxonómicos superiores en el Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, México, se construyeron modelos de regresión múltiple por pasos con valores de abundancia agrupados a nivel género y familia como predictores, mediante el uso de variables dependientes, los índices ecológicos de diversidad (H’), equidad (J’) y distintividad taxonómica (Δ*). Posteriormente se compararon los resultados de los modelos contra los valores de los índices ecológicos observados en un muestreo independiente. Los resultados mostraron que todos los modelos fueron altamente significativos; los valores más altos del coeficiente de determinación se obtuvieron en las regresiones aplicadas a H’, mientras que las usadas por Δ* fueron las menos precisas. Los resultados sugieren que los modelos predictivos aquí generados son susceptibles de ser aplicados en un programa de monitoreo. Este estudio sugiere la implementación de un programa de monitoreo a largo plazo basado en bioindicadores de la estructura comunitaria de peces en el Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, el cual combine la precisión con la facilidad de obtención de datos

Macro-Scale Patterns in Upwelling/Downwelling Activity at North American West Coast.

The seasonal and interannual variability of vertical transport (upwelling/downwelling) has been relatively well studied, mainly for the California Current System, including low-frequency changes and latitudinal heterogeneity. The aim of this work was to identify potentially predictable patterns in upwelling/downwelling activity along the North American west coast and discuss their plausible mechanisms. To this purpose we applied the min/max Autocorrelation Factor technique and time series analysis. We found that spatial co-variation of seawater vertical movements present three dominant low-frequency signals in the range of 33, 19 and 11 years, resembling periodicities of: atmospheric circulation, nodal moon tides and solar activity. Those periodicities might be related to the variability of vertical transport through their influence on dominant wind patterns, the position/intensity of pressure centers and the strength of atmospheric circulation cells (wind stress). The low-frequency signals identified in upwelling/downwelling are coherent with temporal patterns previously reported at the study region: sea surface temperature along the Pacific coast of North America, catch fluctuations of anchovy Engraulis mordax and sardine Sardinops sagax, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, changes in abundance and distribution of salmon populations, and variations in the position and intensity of the Aleutian low. Since the vertical transport is an oceanographic process with strong biological relevance, the recognition of their spatio-temporal patterns might allow for some reasonable forecasting capacity, potentially useful for marine resources management of the region

Total amount of upwelled/downwelled water per year (m³/s/100_{m coastline}).

<p>Ekman transport on the west coast of North America between 21 and 60°N, according to the upwelling index (<a href="http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/" target="_blank">http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/</a>).</p

Canonical correlation coefficients between the original series (Ekman transport values by station) and extracted series (<i>MAFs</i> 1–3).

<p>Canonical correlation coefficients between the original series (Ekman transport values by station) and extracted series (<i>MAFs</i> 1–3).</p

Upwelling/downwelling and the highest auto correlated signal, <i>MAF</i>-1.

<p>Upwelling indices from the 15th standard positions, 21–60°N (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0166962#pone.0166962.g001" target="_blank">Fig 1</a>; gray thin lines), and the extracted low frequency signal <i>MAF</i>-1 (black solid line). For comparison to <i>MAF</i>-1 it is shown the first principal component of upwelling (red dashed line).</p

Skill assessment statistics applied to upwelling low frequency-based models.

<p>Skill assessment statistics applied to upwelling low frequency-based models.</p