Epiphyte metapopulation dynamics are explained by species traits, connectivity, and patch dynamics

The colonization-extinction dynamics of many species are affected by the dynamics of their patches. For increasing our understanding of the metapopulation dynamics of sessile species confined to dynamic patches, we fitted a Bayesian incidence function model extended for dynamic landscapes to snapshot data on five epiphytic lichens among 2083 mapped oaks (dynamic patches). We estimate the age at which trees become suitable patches for different species, which defines their niche breadth (number of suitable trees). We show that the colonization rates were generally low, but increased with increasing connectivity in accordance with metapopulation theory. The rates were related to species traits, and we show, for the first time, that they are higher for species with wide niches and small dispersal propagules than for species with narrow niches or large propagules. We also show frequent long-distance dispersal in epiphytes by quantifying the relative importance of local dispersal and background deposition of dispersal propagules. Local stochastic extinctions from intact trees were negligible in all study species, and thus, the extinction rate is set by the rate of patch destruction (tree fall). These findings mean that epiphyte metapopulations may have slow colonization-extinction dynamics that are explained by connectivity, species traits, and patch dynamics

Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness

The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use and which can potentially have large impacts on the future development of the global forest sector. In this study, we investigate the impacts of material substitution between C, NC and R biomass on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness from 2020 to 2100. The analysis is based on a global spatially-explicit forest sector model (GLOBIOM-forest). Our results indicate that traditional forest industry regions can maintain their competitiveness in a baseline scenario where C and NC biomass remain imperfect substitutes, and the development of the circular economy increases the availability of R biomass. Limited availability of R biomass would increase the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline. On the other hand, a perfect substitution between C and NC biomass would decrease the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline, and increase the competitiveness of emerging forest industry regions such as South America, Asia and Africa. We also show that the increased availability of R biomass tends to decrease demand for pulpwood and might lead to an oversupply of pulpwood especially in traditional forest industry regions. This opens new perspectives for pulpwood use and/or forest management in these regions

Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

Research Highlights: Long-term global scenarios give insights on how social and economic developments and international agreements may impact land use, trade, product markets, and carbon balances. They form a valuable basis for forming national forest policies. Many aspects related to long-term management of forests and consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services can only be addressed at regional and landscape levels. In order to be attended to in the policy process, there is a need for a method that downscales national scenarios to these finer levels. Background and Objectives: Regional framework conditions depend on management activities in the country as a whole. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of a forest sector model (FSM) as a method for downscaling national scenarios results to regional level. The national FSM takes the global scenario data (e.g., harvest level and market prices over time) and solves the national problem. The result for the region of interest is taken as framework conditions for the regional study. Materials and Methods: Two different specifications are tested. One lets product volumes and prices represent endogenous variables in the FSM model. The other takes volumes and prices from the global scenario as exogenous parameters. The first specification attains a maximum net social payoff whereas the second specification means that net present value is maximized under a harvest constraint. Results: The maximum net social payoff specification conforms better to economic factors than the maximum net present value specification but could give national harvest volume trajectories that deviates from what is derived from the global model. This means that regional harvest activity can deviate considerably from the national average, attesting to the benefit of the use of the FSM-based metho

Övervakning av värdefulla skogsbiotoper

Mellan åren 2009-2011 genomfördes de första återinventeringarna av de 19 nyckelbiotoper, 17 naturreservat och fyra äldre produktionsskogar i Dalarna och Gävleborgs län som inventerades tio år tidigare 1998-2002 inom övervakningsprogrammet " Resultaten visade att mängden substrat, antalet förekomster av indikatorarter och enskilda arter varierar mer än vad som kan förväntas av slumpen mellan olika grupper av inventeringsobjekt. Reservaten var generellt mer strukturellt mångfaldiga och artrika än produktionsbestånden, med mer lövträd, död ved av olika slag och fynd av indikatorarter per hektar. Nyckelbiotoper intog en mellanposition och hade lägre volym av död ved per hektar än naturreservaten. Medelfrekvensen indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar var i genomsnitt högre per hektar i naturreservat jämfört med nyckelbiotoper. Lägre medelfrekvenser av vanliga vedsvampar i nyckelbiotoperna kunde till stor del förklaras av en högre frekvens av fnöskticka Ingen förändring kunde statistiskt säkerställas för någon av de studerade skogliga variablerna, artgrupperna elExtensiv övervakning av biotopers innehåll med inriktning mot biologisk mångfald" (Extensivmetoden). De två länen beslöt då att utvärdera metodens effektivitet för att följa upp förändringar för skogliga variabler och indikatorarter efter tio år. I den här rapporten redovisas tillståndet vid återinventeringarna 2009- 2011 samt metodens effektivitet för övervakning och uppföljning av biologisk mångfald i dessa naturreservat, nyckelbiotoper och produktionsbestånd. Den ursprungliga tanken med Extensivmetoden är att inventeringarna ska upprepas vart tionde år för en viss grupp av objekt. Syftet här har varit att svara på (1) vilka förändringar som har skett för enskilda objekt samt en viss grupp av objekt för olika skogliga variabler, indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar, (2) hur små/stora genomsnittliga förändringar som kan avläsas med statistisk signifikans för enskilda objekt och en grupp av objekt och (3) vilka förändringar som har skett under 10-årsperioden i de skyddade områdena respektive nyckelbiotoperna jämfört med de äldre produktionsbestånden och "vanlig" skogsmark baserat på riksskogstaxeringens data? F. fomentarius i reservaten. Ingen förändring kunde statistiskt säkerställas för någon av de studerade skogliga variablerna, artgrupperna eller eller arterna i reservaten eller nyckelbiotoperna efter 10 år. Artrikedomen av indikatorarter förblev också opåverkad över tidsperioden. Detta betyder att både skyddade naturreservat och frivilligt avsatta nyckelbiotoper hade upprätthållit en mångfald av skogliga strukturer och arter under den angivna tidsperioden. Den här rapporten är därmed den första empiriska studien som visar att artrikedomen och frekvensen av skogliga indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar var oförändrad över tid inom både reservat och nyckelbiotoper. Det är dock viktigt att komma ihåg att styrkeanalyserna påvisade att storleken på förändringarna som kunde påvisas med en god statistisk styrka på ca 80 % varierade för den undersökta variabeln och objektkategorin. Ett urval av 17 naturreservat var tillräckligt för att upptäcka relevanta förändringar på 25-35 % (motsvarande rödlistkategorin sårbar) av den ursprungliga genomsnittliga frekvensen av indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar, samt individuellt vanliga svampar som fnöskticka och klibbticka, med 80 % statistisk styrka. Den statistiska styrkan för att upptäcka liknande förändringar från ett urval av 19 nyckelbiotoper var endast 20-40 %. Extensivmetoden hade en sämre precision och styrka för att följa upp förändringar för enskilda arter, speciellt för hänglavar i cirkelprovytor och mer ovanliga arter i bältessegment. Vår bedömning är att Extensivmetoden skulle kunna få en betydande roll för miljöövervakning av värdefulla skogsbiotoper i Sverige. Upprepbarhetenär god och det finns i dagsläget väldigt få etablerade miljöövervakningsprogram i skyddsvärda skogar där upprepbarheten har utvärderats på ett liknande långsiktigt sätt. Bristen på långsiktiga övervakningsdata gör det svårt att bedöma Extensivmetodens effektivitet och betydelse i förhållande till annan miljöövervakning. En samordnad och jämförbar nationell och regional långsiktig miljöövervakning av miljökänsliga och viktiga artgrupper som lövträdslevande epifyter och vedlevande svampar saknas för olika skogsbiotoper, men är av stor betydelse för förståelsen av dessa biotopers naturvårdsnytta under framtida skötsel, förvaltning och klimat

Assessing the usefulness of citizen science data for habitat suitability modelling: opportunistic reporting versus sampling based on a systematic protocol

Aim: To evaluate the potential of models based on opportunistic reporting (OR) compared to models based on data from a systematic protocol (SP) for modelling species distributions. We compared model performance for eight forest bird species with contrasting spatial distributions, habitat requirements and rarity. Differences in the reporting of species were also assessed. Finally, we tested potential improvement of models when inferring high‐quality absences from OR based on questionnaires sent to observers. Location: Both datasets cover the same large area (Sweden) and time period (2000–2013). Methods: Species distributions were modelled using logistic regression. Predictive performance of OR models to predict SP data was assessed based on AUC. We quantified the congruence in spatial predictions using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We related these results to species characteristics and reporting behaviour of observers. We also assessed the gain in predictive performance of OR models by adding inferred absences. Finally, we investigated the potential impact of sampling bias in OR. Results: For all species, and despite the sampling biases, results from OR overall agreed well with those of SP, for the nationwide spatial congruence of habitat suitability maps and the selection and directions of species–environment relationships. The OR models also performed well in predicting the SP data. The predictive performance of the OR models increased with species rarity and even outperformed the SP model for the rarest species. No significant impact of observer behaviour was found. Main conclusions: Relatively simple analyses with inferred absences could produce reliable spatial predictions of habitat suitability. This was especially true for rare species. OR data should be seen as a complement to SP, as the weakness of one is the strength of the other, and OR may be especially useful at large spatial scales or where no systematic data collection protocols exist

Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services

There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distri- bution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost- effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.Peer reviewe

Impacts of Forest Management on Forest Bird Occurrence Patterns-A Case Study in Central Europe

The global increase in demand for wood products, calls for a more sustainable management of forests to optimize both the production of wood and the conservation of forest biodiversity. In this paper, we evaluate the status and future trends of forest birds in Central European forests, assuming different forest management scenarios that to a varying degree respond to the demand for wood production. To this end, we use niche models (Boosted Regression Trees and Generalized Linear Models) to model the responses of 15 forest bird species to predictors related to forest stand (e.g., stand volume of specific tree species) and landscape structure (e.g., percentage cover), and to climate (bioclimatic variables). We then define five distinct forest management scenarios, ranging from set-aside to productivity-driven scenarios, project them 100 years into the future, and apply our niche models into these scenarios to assess the birds' responses to different forest management alternatives. Our models show that the species' responses to management vary reflecting differences in their ecological niches, and consequently, no single management practice can benefit all species if applied across the whole landscape. Thus, we conclude that in order to promote the overall forest bird species richness in the study region, it is necessary to manage the forests in a multi-functional way, e.g., by spatially optimizing the management practices in the landscape

High-resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles

Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers played important roles in species occurrences while variables related to habitat heterogeneity and forest complexity were less relevant. Furthermore, we showed that local communities were shaped by environmental variation primarily through their ecological traits whereas morphological traits were involved only marginally. As predicted, ecological traits influenced species' responses to forest structure, and to other environmental variation, with canopy niche, wood decay niche and host preference as the most important ecological traits. Conversely, no links between morphological traits and environmental characteristics were observed. Both models, however, revealed strong phylogenetic signal in species' response to environmental characteristics. These findings imply that alterations of climate and tree species composition have the potential to alter saproxylic beetle communities in temperate forests. Additionally, ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. It remains challenging, however, to link simple morphological traits to species' complex ecological niches. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog

Traits mediate niches and co-occurrences of forest beetles in ways that differ among bioclimatic regions

Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the role of traits in beetle community assembly and test for consistency in these effects among several bioclimatic regions. We asked (1) whether traits predicted species' responses to environmental gradients (i.e. their niches), (2) whether these same traits could predict co-occurrence patterns and (3) how consistent were niches and the role of traits among study regions. Location Boreal forests in Norway and Finland, temperate forests in Germany. Taxon Wood-living (saproxylic) beetles. Methods We compiled capture records of 468 wood-living beetle species from the three regions, along with nine morphological and ecological species traits. Eight climatic and forest covariates were also collected. We used Bayesian hierarchical joint species distribution models to estimate the influence of traits and phylogeny on species' niches. We also tested for correlations between species associations and trait similarity. Finally, we compared species niches and the effects of traits among study regions. Results Traits explained some of the variability in species' niches, but their effects differed among study regions. However, substantial phylogenetic signal in species niches implies that unmeasured but phylogenetically structured traits have a stronger effect. Degree of trait similarity was correlated with species associations but depended idiosyncratically on the trait and region. Species niches were much more consistent-widespread taxa often responded similarly to an environmental gradient in each region. Main conclusions The inconsistent effects of traits among regions limit their current use in understanding beetle community assembly. Phylogenetic signal in niches, however, implies that better predictive traits can eventually be identified. Consistency of species niches among regions means niches may remain relatively stable under future climate and land use changes; this lends credibility to predictive distribution models based on future climate projections but may imply that species' scope for short-term adaptation is limited.Peer reviewe