The use of segmented regression in analysing interrupted time series studies : an example in pre-hospital ambulance care

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A Review of Hybrid Soft Computing and Data Pre-Processing Techniques to Forecast Freshwater Quality’s Parameters: Current Trends and Future Directions

Water quality has a significant influence on human health. As a result, water quality parameter modelling is one of the most challenging problems in the water sector. Therefore, the major factor in choosing an appropriate prediction model is accuracy. This research aims to analyse hybrid techniques and pre-processing data methods in freshwater quality modelling and forecasting. Hybrid approaches have generally been seen as a potential way of improving the accuracy of water quality modelling and forecasting compared with individual models. Consequently, recent studies have focused on using hybrid models to enhance forecasting accuracy. The modelling of dissolved oxygen is receiving more attention. From a review of relevant articles, it is clear that hybrid techniques are viable and precise methods for water quality prediction. Additionally, this paper presents future research directions to help researchers predict freshwater quality variables

Application of hybrid machine learning models and data pre-processing to predict water level of watersheds: Recent trends and future perspective

The community’s well-being and economic livelihoods are heavily influenced by the water level of watersheds. The changes in water levels directly affect the circulation processes of lakes and rivers that control water mixing and bottom sediment resuspension, further affecting water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Thus, these considerations have made the water level monitoring process essential to save the environment. Machine learning hybrid models are emerging robust tools that are successfully applied for water level monitoring. Various models have been developed, and selecting the optimal model would be a lengthy procedure. A timely, detailed, and instructive overview of the models’ concepts and historical uses would be beneficial in preventing researchers from overlooking models’ potential selection and saving significant time on the problem. Thus, recent research on water level prediction using hybrid machines is reviewed in this article to present the “state of the art” on the subject and provide some suggestions on research methodologies and models. This comprehensive study classifies hybrid models into four types algorithm parameter optimisation-based hybrid models (OBH), pre-processing-based hybrid models (PBH), the components combination-based hybrid models (CBH), and hybridisation of parameter optimisation-based with preprocessing-based hybrid models (HOPH); furthermore, it explains the pre-processing of data in detail. Finally, the most popular optimisation methods and future perspectives and conclusions have been discussed

Application of Metaheuristic Algorithms and ANN Model for Univariate Water Level Forecasting

With the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models, the artificial neural network (ANN) is being increasingly applied for forecasting hydrological processes. However, researchers have not treated hybrid ML models in much detail. To address these issues, this study herein suggests a novel methodology to forecast the monthly water level (WL) based on multiple lags of the Tigris River in Al-Kut, Iraq, over ten years. The methodology includes preprocessing data methods, and the ANN model optimises with a marine predator algorithm (MPA). In the optimisation procedure, to decrease uncertainty and expand the predicting range, the slime mould algorithm (SMA-ANN), constriction coefficient-based particle swarm optimisation and chaotic gravitational search algorithms (CPSOCGSA-ANN), and particle swarm optimisation (PSO-ANN) are applied to compare and validate the MPA-ANN model performance. Analysis of results revealed that the data pretreatment methods improved the original data quality and selected the ideal predictors' scenario by singular spectrum analysis and mutual information methods, respectively. For example, the correlation coefficient of the first lag improved from 0.648 to 0.938. Depending on various evaluation metrics, MPA-ANN tends to forecast WL better than SMA-ANN, PSO-ANN, and CPSOCGSA-ANN algorithms with coefficients of determination of 0.94, 0.81, 0.85, and 0.90, respectively. Evidence shows that the proposed methodology yields excellent results, with a scatter index equal to 0.002. The research outcomes represent an additional step towards evolving various hybrid ML techniques, which are valuable to practitioners wishing to forecast WL data and the management of water resources in light of environmental shifts

Synthesis and structural characterization of a mimetic membrane-anchored prion protein

During pathogenesis of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) an abnormal form (PrPSc) of the host encoded prion protein (PrPC) accumulates in insoluble fibrils and plaques. The two forms of PrP appear to have identical covalent structures, but differ in secondary and tertiary structure. Both PrPC and PrPSc have glycosylphospatidylinositol (GPI) anchors through which the protein is tethered to cell membranes. Membrane attachment has been suggested to play a role in the conversion of PrPC to PrPSc, but the majority of in vitro studies of the function, structure, folding and stability of PrP use recombinant protein lacking the GPI anchor. In order to study the effects of membranes on the structure of PrP, we synthesized a GPI anchor mimetic (GPIm), which we have covalently coupled to a genetically engineered cysteine residue at the C-terminus of recombinant PrP. The lipid anchor places the protein at the same distance from the membrane as does the naturally occurring GPI anchor. We demonstrate that PrP coupled to GPIm (PrP-GPIm) inserts into model lipid membranes and that structural information can be obtained from this membrane-anchored PrP. We show that the structure of PrP-GPIm reconstituted in phosphatidylcholine and raft membranes resembles that of PrP, without a GPI anchor, in solution. The results provide experimental evidence in support of previous suggestions that NMR structures of soluble, anchor-free forms of PrP represent the structure of cellular, membrane-anchored PrP. The availability of a lipid-anchored construct of PrP provides a unique model to investigate the effects of different lipid environments on the structure and conversion mechanisms of PrP

Evidence for Involvement of Th17 Type Responses in Post Kala Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (PKDL)

Post kala azar dermal leishamniasis (PKDL), an unusual dermatosis, develops in 5–15% of apparently cured visceral leishmaniasis cases in India and in about 60% of cases in Sudan. PKDL cases assume importance since they constitute an important human reservoir for the parasite. Host immunological responses, considered as major factors in PKDL development, are poorly understood. Limited studies have been performed to explore the host immune responses and that too, restricted to a few immune parameters. The present study employed cDNA array technique that identified various host immuno-determinants including cytokines, chemokines, apoptotic and signaling molecules which were not reported previously in PKDL. In addition, we showed for the first time that Th17 responses are present during L. donovani infection in PKDL which possibly contributes significantly to disease pathogenesis by inducing TNF-α and nitric oxide production. Our findings lead to improved understanding of the host parasite interaction in terms of immune responses and pathology in tissue lesions of PKDL

CCL2/MCP-I Genotype-Phenotype Relationship in Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Among the known biomarkers, chemokines, secreted by activated macrophages and T cells, attract groups of immune cells to the site of infection and may determine the clinical outcome. Association studies of CCL-2/MCP-1 -2518 A/G functional SNP linked to high and low phenotypes with tuberculosis disease susceptibility have shown conflicting results in tuberculosis. Some of these differences could be due the variability of latent infection and recent exposure in the control groups. We have therefore carried out a detailed analysis of CCL-2 genotype SNP -2518 (A/G transition) with plasma CCL-2 levels and related these levels to tuberculin skin test positivity in asymptomatic community controls with no known exposure to tuberculosis and in recently exposed household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis patients. TST positivity was linked to higher concentrations of plasma CCL2 (Mann Whitney U test; p = 0.004) and was more marked when the G allele was present in TST+ asymptomatic controls (A/G; p = 0.01). Recent exposure also had a significant effect on CCL-2 levels and was linked to the G allele (p = 0.007). Therefore association studies for susceptibility or protection from disease should take into consideration the PPD status as well as recent exposure of the controls group used for comparison. Our results also suggest a role for CCL-2 in maintaining the integrity of granuloma in asymptomatic individuals with latent infection in high TB burden settings. Therefore additional studies into the role of CCL-2 in disease reactivation and progression are warranted

Utility of a buccal swab point-of-care test for the IFNL4 genotype in the era of direct acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus.

BACKGROUND: The CC genotype of the IFNL4 gene is known to be associated with increased Hepatitis C (HCV) cure rates with interferon-based therapy and may contribute to cure with direct acting antivirals. The Genedrive® IFNL4 is a CE marked Point of Care (PoC) molecular diagnostic test, designed for in vitro diagnostic use to provide rapid, real-time detection of IFNL4 genotype status for SNP rs12979860. METHODS: 120 Participants were consented to a substudy comparing IFNL4 genotyping results from a buccal swab analysed on the Genedrive® platform with results generated using the Affymetix UK Biobank array considered to be the gold standard. RESULTS: Buccal swabs were taken from 120 participants for PoC IFNL4 testing and a whole blood sample for genetic sequencing. Whole blood genotyping vs. buccal swab PoC testing identified 40 (33%), 65 (54%), and 15 (13%) had CC, CT and TT IFNL4 genotype respectively. The Buccal swab PoC identified 38 (32%) CC, 64 (53%) CT and 18 (15%) TT IFNL4 genotype respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the buccal swab test to detect CC vs non-CC was 90% (95% CI 76-97%) and 98% (95% CI 91-100%) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The buccal swab test was better at correctly identifying non-CC genotypes than CC genotypes. The high specificity of the Genedrive® assay prevents CT/TT genotypes being mistaken for CC, and could avoid patients being identified as potentially 'good responders' to interferon-based therapy

A six-year descriptive analysis of hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions among people born in refugee-source countries

Background: Hospitalisation for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSHs) has become a recognised tool to measure access to primary care. Timely and effective outpatient care is highly relevant to refugee populations given the past exposure to torture and trauma, and poor access to adequate health care in their countries of origin and during flight. Little is known about ACSHs among resettled refugee populations. With the aim of examining the hypothesis that people from refugee backgrounds have higher ACSHs than people born in the country of hospitalisation, this study analysed a six-year state-wide hospital discharge dataset to estimate ACSH rates for residents born in refugee-source countries and compared them with the Australia-born population. Methods: Hospital discharge data between 1 July 1998 and 30 June 2004 from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset were used to assess ACSH rates among residents born in eight refugee-source countries, and compare them with the Australia-born average. Rate ratios and 95% confidence levels were used to illustrate these comparisons. Four categories of ambulatory care sensitive conditions were measured: total, acute, chronic and vaccine-preventable. Country of birth was used as a proxy indicator of refugee status. Results: When compared with the Australia-born population, hospitalisations for total and acute ambulatory care sensitive conditions were lower among refugee-born persons over the six-year period. Chronic and vaccine-preventable ACSHs were largely similar between the two population groups. Conclusion: Contrary to our hypothesis, preventable hospitalisation rates among people born in refugee-source countries were no higher than Australia-born population averages. More research is needed to elucidate whether low rates of preventable hospitalisation indicate better health status, appropriate health habits, timely and effective care-seeking behaviour and outpatient care, or overall low levels of health care-seeking due to other more pressing needs during the initial period of resettlement. It is important to unpack dimensions of health status and health care access in refugee populations through ad-hoc surveys as the refugee population is not a homogenous group despite sharing a common experience of forced displacement and violence-related trauma

Variable short duration treatment versus standard treatment, with and without adjunctive ribavirin, for chronic hepatitis C: the STOP-HCV-1 non-inferiority, factorial RCT

Background: High cure rates with licensed durations of therapy for chronic hepatitis C virus suggest that many patients are overtreated. New strategies in individuals who find it challenging to adhere to standard treatment courses could significantly contribute to the elimination agenda. Objectives: To compare cure rates using variable ultrashort first-line treatment stratified by baseline viral load followed by retreatment, with a fixed 8-week first-line treatment with retreatment with or without adjunctive ribavirin. Design: An open-label, multicentre, factorial randomised controlled trial. Randomisation: Randomisation was computer generated, with patients allocated in a 1 : 1 ratio using a factorial design to each of biomarker-stratified variable ultrashort strategy or fixed duration and adjunctive ribavirin (or not), using a minimisation algorithm with a probabilistic element. Setting: NHS. Participants: A total of 202 adults (aged ≥ 18 years) infected with chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1a/1b or 4 for ≥ 6 months, with a detectable plasma hepatitis C viral load and no significant fibrosis [FibroScan® (Echosens, Paris, France) score F0–F1 or biopsy-proven minimal fibrosis], a hepatitis C virus viral load  24 weeks on anti-human immunodeficiency virus drugs. Interventions: Fixed-duration 8-week first-line therapy compared with variable ultrashort first-line therapy, initially for 4–6 weeks (continuous scale) stratified by screening viral load (variable ultrashort strategy 1, mean 32 days of treatment) and then, subsequently, for 4–7 weeks (variable ultrashort strategy 2 mean 39 days of duration), predominantly with ombitasvir, paritaprevir, ritonavir (Viekirax®; AbbVie, Chicago, IL, USA), and dasabuvir (Exviera®; AbbVie, Chicago, IL, USA) or ritonavir. All patients in whom first-line treatment was unsuccessful were immediately retreated with 12 weeks’ sofosbuvir, ledipasvir (Harvoni®, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Foster City, CA, USA) and ribavirin. Main outcome measure: The primary outcome was overall sustained virological response (persistently undetectable) 12 weeks after the end of therapy (SVR12). Results: A total of 202 patients were analysed. All patients in whom the primary outcome was evaluable achieved SVR12 overall [100% (197/197), 95% confidence interval 86% to 100%], demonstrating non-inferiority between fixed- and variable-duration strategies (difference 0%, 95% confidence interval –3.8% to 3.7%, prespecified non-inferiority margin 4%). A SVR12 following first-line treatment was achieved in 91% (92/101; 95% confidence interval 86% to 97%) of participants randomised to the fixed-duration strategy and by 48% (47/98; 95% confidence interval 39% to 57%) allocated to the variable-duration strategy. However, the proportion achieving SVR12 was significantly higher among those allocated to variable ultrashort strategy 2 [72% (23/32), 95% confidence interval 56% to 87%] than among those allocated to variable ultrashort strategy 1 [36% (24/66), 95% confidence interval 25% to 48%]. Overall, a SVR12 following first-line treatment was achieved by 72% (70/101) (95% confidence interval 65% to 78%) of patients treated with ribavirin and by 68% (69/98) (95% confidence interval 61% to 76%) of those not treated with ribavirin. A SVR12 with variable ultrashort strategies 1 and 2 was 52% (25/48) (95% confidence interval 38% to 65%) with ribavirin, compared with 44% (22/50) (95% confidence interval 31% to 56) without. However, at treatment failure, the emergence of viral resistance was lower with ribavirin [12% (3/26), 95% confidence interval 2% to 30%] than without [38% (11/29), 95% confidence interval 21% to 58%; p = 0.01]. All 10 individuals who became undetectable at day 3 of treatment achieved first-line SVR12 regardless of treatment duration. Five participants in the variable-duration arm and five in the fixed-duration arm experienced serious adverse events (p = 0.69), as did five participants receiving ribavirin and five participants receiving no ribavirin. Conclusions: SVR12 rates were significantly higher when ultrashort treatment varied between 4 and 7 weeks, rather than between 4 and 6 weeks. We found no evidence of ribavirin significantly affecting first-line SVR12, with unsuccessful first-line short-course therapy also not compromising subsequent retreatment with sofosbuvir, ledipasvir and ribavirin