Convolutional neural networks applied to high-frequency market microstructure forecasting

Highly sophisticated artificial neural networks have achieved unprecedented performance across a variety of complex real-world problems over the past years, driven by the ability to detect significant patterns autonomously. Modern electronic stock markets produce large volumes of data, which are very suitable for use with these algorithms. This research explores new scientific ground by designing and evaluating a convolutional neural network in predicting future financial outcomes. A visually inspired transformation process translates high-frequency market microstructure data from the London Stock Exchange into four market-event based input channels, which are used to train six deep networks. Primary results indicate that con-volutional networks behave reasonably well on this task and extract interesting microstructure patterns, which are in line with previous theoretical findings. Furthermore, it demonstrates a new approach using modern deep-learning techniques for exploiting and analysing market microstructure behaviour

Non-performing loans at the dawn of IFRS 9: regulatory and accounting treatment of asset quality

Asset quality is a key indicator of sound banking. However, it is difficult for banking regulators and investors to assess it in the absence of a common, cross-border scheme to classify assets. Currently no standard is applied universally to categorise loans, the most sizeable asset on banks’ balance sheets. As a corollary, definitions of nonperforming loans (NPLs), despite recent steps towards greater harmonisation, continue to vary between jurisdictions. This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of NPLs and considers variations in the treatment of NPLs across countries, accounting regimes, and firms. The paper relies on a multi-disciplinary perspective and addresses legal, accounting, economic and strategic aspects of loan loss provisioning (LLP) and NPLs. A harmonised approach to NPL recognition is particularly desirable, in view of the fact that IFRS 9, the new accounting standard on loan loss provisioning, will be mandatory from January 2018. IFRS 9 changes the relationship between NPLs and provisions, by relying on greater judgement to determine provisions. The potential for divergence makes the need for comparable indicators against which to assess asset quality all the greater

Complex type 4 structure changing dynamics of digital agents: Nash equilibria of a game with arms race in innovations

The new digital economy has renewed interest in how digital agents can innovate. This follows the legacy of John von Neumann dynamical systems theory on complex biological systems as computation. The Gödel-Turing-Post (GTP) logic is shown to be necessary to generate innovation based structure changing Type 4 dynamics of the Wolfram-Chomsky schema. Two syntactic procedures of GTP logic permit digital agents to exit from listable sets of digital technologies to produce novelty and surprises. The first is meta-analyses or offline simulations. The second is a fixed point with a two place encoding of negation or opposition, referred to as the Gödel sentence. It is postulated that in phenomena ranging from the genome to human proteanism, the Gödel sentence is a ubiquitous syntactic construction without which escape from hostile agents qua the Liar is impossible and digital agents become entrained within fixed repertoires. The only recursive best response function of a 2-person adversarial game that can implement strategic innovation in lock-step formation of an arms race is the productive function of the Emil Post [58] set theoretic proof of the Gödel incompleteness result. This overturns the view of game theorists that surprise and innovation cannot be a Nash equilibrium of a game

Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods

We analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes, viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall, Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk, and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogous to the R number in epidemic models. For this regulatory capital thresholds are used. Furthermore, network centrality measures identify systemically important and vulnerable banking systems. Market price-based SRIs are contemporaneous with the crisis and they are found to covary with risk measures like VaR and betas

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks