Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Association between plasma triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol and microvascular kidney disease and retinopathy in type 2 diabetes: a global case-control study in 13 countries.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular renal and retinal diseases are common major complications of type 2 diabetes. The relation between plasma lipids and microvascular disease is not well established.METHODS AND RESULTS: The cases were 2535 patients with type 2 diabetes with average duration 14 years, 1891 having kidney disease and 1218 retinopathy. The cases were matched for diabetes duration, age, sex, and LDL-cholesterol to 3683 controls with type 2 diabetes who did not have kidney disease or retinopathy. The study was conducted in 24 sites in 13 countries. The primary analysis included kidney disease and retinopathy cases. Matched analysis was performed using site-specific conditional logistic regression in multivariable models that adjusted for hemoglobinA1C, hypertension, and statin treatment. Mean LDL-cholesterol concentration was 2.3mmol/L. The microvascular disease odds ratio (OR) increased by a factor of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.11,1.22) for every 0.5mmol/L (approximately 1 quintile) increase in triglycerides; or decreased by a factor of 0.92 (0.88, 0.96) for every 0.2mmol/L (approximately 1 quintile) increase in HDL-cholesterol. For kidney disease, the OR increased by 1.23 (1.16,1.31) with triglycerides and decreased by 0.86 (0.82, 0.91) with HDL-cholesterol. Retinopathy was associated with triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol in matched analysis but not significantly after additional adjustment.CONCLUSIONS: Diabetic kidney disease is associated worldwide with higher levels of plasma triglycerides and lower levels of HDL-cholesterol among patients with good control of LDL-cholesterol. Retinopathy was less robustly associated with these lipids. These results strengthen the rationale for studying dyslipidemia treatment to prevent diabetic microvascular disease

Clinical Data Combined With Modeling and Simulation Indicate Unchanged Drug-Drug Interaction Magnitudes in the Elderly

Age-related comorbidities and consequently polypharmacy are highly prevalent in the elderly, resulting in an increased risk for drug-drug interactions (DDIs). The effect of aging on DDI magnitudes is mostly uncertain, leading to missing guidance regarding the clinical DDI management in the elderly. Clinical data obtained in aging people living with HIV ≥ 55 years, who participated in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, demonstrated unchanged DDI magnitudes with advanced aging for four studied DDI scenarios. These data plus published data for midazolam in the presence of clarithromycin and rifampicin in elderly individuals assessed the predictive potential of the used physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to simulate DDIs in the elderly. All clinically observed data were generally predicted within the 95% confidence interval of the PBPK simulations. The verified model predicted subsequently the magnitude of 50 DDIs across adulthood (20-99 years) with 42 scenarios being only verified in adults aged 20-50 years in the absence of clinically observed data in the elderly. DDI magnitudes were not impacted by aging regardless of the involved drugs, DDI mechanism, mediators of DDIs, or the sex of the investigated individuals. The prediction of unchanged DDI magnitudes with advanced aging were proofed by 17 published, independent DDIs that were investigated in young and elderly subjects. In conclusion, this study demonstrated by combining clinically observed data with modeling and simulation that aging does not impact DDI magnitudes and thus, clinical management of DDIs can a priori be similar in aging men and women in the absence of severe comorbidities

Appendicitis risk prediction models in children presenting with right iliac fossa pain (RIFT study): a prospective, multicentre validation study.

Background Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical emergency in children. Differentiation of acute appendicitis from conditions that do not require operative management can be challenging in children. This study aimed to identify the optimum risk prediction model to stratify acute appendicitis risk in children. Methods We did a rapid review to identify acute appendicitis risk prediction models. A prospective, multicentre cohort study was then done to evaluate performance of these models. Children (aged 5\u201315 years) presenting with acute right iliac fossa pain in the UK and Ireland were included. For each model, score cutoff thresholds were systematically varied to identify the best achievable specificity while maintaining a failure rate (ie, proportion of patients identified as low risk who had acute appendicitis) less than 5%. The normal appendicectomy rate was the proportion of resected appendixes found to be normal on histopathological examination. Findings 15 risk prediction models were identified that could be assessed. The cohort study enrolled 1827 children from 139 centres, of whom 630 (34\ub75%) underwent appendicectomy. The normal appendicectomy rate was 15\ub79% (100 of 630 patients). The Shera score was the best performing model, with an area under the curve of 0\ub784 (95% CI 0\ub782\u20130\ub786). Applying score cutoffs of 3 points or lower for children aged 5\u201310 years and girls aged 11\u201315 years, and 2 points or lower for boys aged 11\u201315 years, the failure rate was 3\ub73% (95% CI 2\ub70\u20135\ub72; 18 of 539 patients), specificity was 44\ub73% (95% CI 41\ub74\u201347\ub72; 521 of 1176), and positive predictive value was 41\ub74% (38\ub75\u201344\ub74; 463 of 1118). Positive predictive value for the Shera score with a cutoff of 6 points or lower (72\ub76%, 67\ub74\u201377\ub74) was similar to that of ultrasound scan (75\ub70%, 65\ub73\u201383\ub71). Interpretation The Shera score has the potential to identify a large group of children at low risk of acute appendicitis who could be considered for early discharge. Risk scoring does not identify children who should proceed directly to surgery. Medium-risk and high-risk children should undergo routine preoperative ultrasound imaging by operators trained to assess for acute appendicitis, and MRI or low-dose CT if uncertainty remains. Funding None

Cardiovascular Efficacy and Safety of Bococizumab in High-Risk Patients

BACKGROUN